Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week with
  a risk for severe storms each day through Friday.

- Temperatures remaining near normal through next week.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible through Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

17Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA under
broad northwest flow with H5 ridge centered near the four
corners region with trough centered over the northeast CONUS. PV
analysis suggests at least 2 smaller disturbances moving over
top of ridge to the west. At the surface broad and light
easterly flow observed across area as surface ridge settles over
the area. With dewpoints in the low 60s, already seeing CU
fields develop, with storm initiation already occurring along
weak convergence zone near KLIC.

Primary short term concerns will focus on thunderstorm potential
each afternoon and evening through Friday.

As mentioned earlier, already seeing thunderstorm initiation on
subtle convergent zone along Palmer Divide and expect this to
continue on through the afternoon. While no major short wave
trough is apparent upstream, inhibition looks rather weak
allowing for several areas of thunderstorms to develop. The
first will likely be along convergent zone/south of Interstate
70 in eastern Colorado, with storms moving east southeast
through the afternoon hours. A second round of storms will
likely initiate over the higher terrain and merge into more of
an MCS in the evening hours. This will likely bring more
widespread storms as it moves east into Kansas. Have doubts
about how far east storms will make it as there is a rather
sharp gradient in available instability and have opted to be a
bit conservative on eastward progression. With instability
around 1000 J/KG and fairly straight hodographs expect a few
stronger storms early on, but think biggest threat will be
organized cold pools/ damaging wind gusts. High precipitable
water values, slow storm movement and high freezing levels
support a heavy rain threat as well, but best potential does not
seem to line up with where heavy rain has fallen recently.

On Thursday, sfc ridge retreats to the east as trough
strengthens over eastern Colorado. This will result in
increasing southerly winds as well as increasing temperatures.
While a similar upper level pattern will be in place during the
afternoon, H7 temperatures will be several degrees C warmer
than today resulting in stronger capping. Given the weak overall
forcing, confidence in thunderstorm development not as high as
today although threats will be similar to the last several days.
Pattern continues on Friday although afternoon forcing looks to
be stronger as weak cold front sweeps across the area. With
more focused forcing along front, looks like Friday evening may
be the best chance for rain across a large part of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Medium range models in general agreement with the overall large
scale pattern through the middle of next week as flow aloft
becomes more northerly and rather weak as H5 ridge remains
firmly in place across southwest CONUS and weak cut of low
develops over the Central Plains. While there is a bit of
uncertainty with exact track of this low, somewhat surprised
that it is pretty well accounted for in the GEFS mean showing at
least broad consensus between ensemble members. Net result will
be a cooler and cloudy weekend with showers possible through
Monday. With current data, does not appear to be a great severe
weather threat with weak shear and limited available
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
continue through the evening. However, confidence in directly
impacting either terminal is low. Brief gusty winds may occur
near any thunderstorm.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
136 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181945-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
136 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 /236 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across much of the area, with the best chances across eastern
Colorado. Hail up to the size of half dollar and strong wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph are the primary threat with these storms. Locally
heavy rain causing flash flooding is possible, but not expected to be
widespread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday afternoon and
evening in northeast Colorado and along the Colorado and Kansas
border area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, as well
as marginally severe hail.

Severe storm chances continue on Friday afternoon and evening, with
perhaps more widespread coverage possible. Damaging wind gusts will
continue to be the primary hazard, but also some instances of large
hail will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the evening. Please report
any severe weather to the National Weather Service in Goodland.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
141 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

COZ092-172015-
Cheyenne County CO-
141 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 141 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Kit Carson, or 28 miles west of Cheyenne Wells,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 10284 3865 10260 3861 10266 3862 10293
      3873 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 319DEG 6KT 3869 10286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Kit Carson         38.73N 102.76W
07/17/2024  E50 MPH          Cheyenne           CO   Trained Spotter

&&

JN

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     Hail             3 SE Kit Carson         38.73N 102.76W
07/17/2024  M0.25 Inch       Cheyenne           CO   Trained Spotter

            Hail at least an inch thick on the ground.

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
244 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

COZ091-092-172130-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
244 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 330 PM
MDT...

At 243 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Vona, or 15 miles southeast of Seibert, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 10290 3916 10278 3905 10249 3893 10252
      3886 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 312DEG 7KT 3910 10275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
259 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Kit Carson              38.76N 102.80W
07/17/2024  M54 MPH          Cheyenne           CO   Mesonet

&&

JN