Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potentially damaging wind gusts this evening.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but far eastern
  Colorado Monday.

- Cooler (less hot) temperatures and a bit better chance for
  rainfall for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Tonight...isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to move from west to east through about 12 AM MDT (1
AM CDT), impacting those generally west of a line from near
McCook to Colby and Oakley. The primary hazard will be wind
gusts up to 65 mph. HRRR is showing a potential for heat bursts
after about 10 PM MDT as shower/thunderstorm activity
dissipates. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle
60s to middle 70s.

Monday-Monday night...we'll have another chance for showers and
thunderstorms from late afternoon through the overnight hours as
a better organized weather system moves through from the
northwest. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 90s to around 107
with low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Heat
indices as high as 107 are forecast (Norton/Graham counties).

Tuesday-Tuesday night...We'll have a lull in precipitation
chances until late afternoon when another weather system moves
through from the west-northwest. Presently we have likely pops
(60%) for overnight thunderstorm chances. High temperatures
return closer to normal for early July with upper 80s to lower
90s forecast. Low temperatures also near normal in the upper 50s
to middle 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...lingering moisture in the 850-500mb
layer in the northwest flow aloft will continue to support daily
and overnight chances for rainfall. Presently we have 20%-70%
chances during the day with 20%-50% chances overnight. With
cooler temperatures aloft and quite a bit of cloud cover, high
temperatures look to be below normal with 80 to 85 degrees
forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Slightly below normal daytime highs in the 85 to 90 degree range
are forecast with low temperatures a few degrees either side of
60. Daily rainfall chances are in the 20% to 30% range in
general as weather systems move through from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southeasterly wind around 11kts at taf issuance will veer to the
southwest at similar speeds around 05z, continuing to veer to
the west-northwest near 10kts by 13z. Winds continue to veer to
the northwest then north at speeds around 11kts with some higher
gusts through the rest of the taf period. High based showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to impact the terminal in the
02z-04z timeframe. The primary hazard will be wind gusts up to
50kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
south to southeasterly wind at speeds around 10kts at taf
issuance will become light and variable around 06z-13z. After
14z, west-northwest winds up to 10kts continue to veer to the
northwest then north and northeast through the rest of the
period. Winds around 10-15kts with some higher gusts are
possible after about 23z. High based showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated to impact the terminal in the 05z-06z timeframe.
The primary hazard will be wind gusts up to 50kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Sunday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        105     2010
Burlington  105     1925
Goodland    107     1934
Tribune     107     1934
Colby       109     1934
McCook      109     1954
Hill City   113     1934

Monday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        102     2006
Burlington  103     2000
Goodland    106     1925
Tribune     108     2000
Colby       108     1925
McCook      112     1925
Hill City   113     1934

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.
     Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
640 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
640 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 /740 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Heat Advisory continues for the entire Tri-State area through
9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) tonight.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in far eastern Colorado
will continue moving east toward a McCook to Colby and Oakley line
through about 12 AM MDT (1 AM CDT). The primary hazard will be
outflow wind gusts up to 75 mph. This may also create some blowing
dust and reduced visibilities. There is a possibility of heat bursts
with any dissipating showers or thunderstorms after about 10 PM MDT
(11 PM CDT). This is observed by a sudden increase in temperature,
sudden decrease in relative humidity and potentially damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Another Heat Advisory will go into effect for northwest Kansas and
extreme southwest Nebraska Monday from 9 AM MDT (10 AM CDT) to 8 PM
MDT (9 PM CDT).

Strong to severe thunderstorms with wind gusts around 70 mph are
currently forecasted Monday late afternoon and into the evening.
Portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, Dundy and Cheyenne county Kansas look
to be in the relative greatest potential for severe weather. Blowing
dust with visibilities of 3 miles or less will be possible as well.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are again possible Tuesday across
most of the area with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. We would appreciate any
measured wind gusts over 50 mph, wind damage and blowing dust via
telephone and social media.

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