Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
603 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue this evening, mainly across the
  southwestern 1/2 of the forecast area.

- A prolonged period of dry weather returns Monday and continues
  through next Sunday.

- Heat also returns, mainly Friday through Sunday with high
  temperatures a few degrees either side of 100. Heat index
  values around 100 degrees also currently forecast Friday
  through Sunday, mainly east of Highway 25.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Based on current trajectory of hail producing storm in Kit
Carson county and collaboration with SPC have expanded the
Severe Watch to include Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties in
Kansas. A history of golf ball size hail and accumulating hail
is accompanying this storm. Will need to watch for potential
increasing wind threat if it takes on any potential bowing
segments. Due to lack of wind reports thus far have lowered
messaging down to 65 mph wind gust potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tonight...we should see another round of showers and thunderstorms
move through from the north and northwest, supporting 20%-50% pops
across the southwest 1/2 of the area through about midnight.
Rainfall chances (pops) may need to go up if latest model trends
hold. Cant rule out a severe storm or two, mainly across far eastern
Colorado. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper
50s.

Monday-Monday night...dry weather is currently forecast. There may
be enough moisture in the 850-500mb layer lingering around to
combine with a few hundred Joules of CAPE to produce isolated
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon but at the moment
coverage and confidence too low to include in the forecast. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with
low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...there will be some limited moisture in the
700-500mb later moving through the area from late afternoon through
the evening hours. Instability is very weak with subsidence over the
area along with poor mid level lapse rates. Presently, dry weather
is forecast. High temperatures rise into the middle 80s to lower 90s
with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, better 700-500mb moisture
resides along the front range of the rockies, perhaps into parts of
far eastern Colorado during the afternoon-evening hours. Instability
remains rather unimpressive and for now will keep the inherited dry
forecast going. High temperatures rise another few degrees with
upper 80s to middle 90s currently forecast. Low temperatures
continue in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The long term period is fairly straightforward: hot and dry. The
upper ridge currently over the Great Basin will gradually move
eastward, with the ridge axis aligned over the central plains by
Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the triple digits are likely each
day through the period. Record highs for July 11-14 are
generally between 105-110, and might be in that territory in
some locations. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop
into the teens starting Friday and through the weekend, but
wind speeds should stay well below any critical fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Watching for a period of MVFR conditions just after the start of
this period for KGLD as another round of showers and storms
moves through. At this time it does appear that any rainfall and
MVFR conditions will stay away from the KMCK terminal. After
this passes winds will continue to remain mainly light with
variable winds at times. Clouds will also slowly dissipate as
mid level dry air moves in. Did include some SCT sky coverage
for Monday afternoon due to anticipated diurnal cumulus
development.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-090000-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
559 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 /659 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties in Colorado along with Wallace, Greeley and Wichita
counties in Kansas through 11pm CT or 12am MT. Large damaging hail
up to 2 inches in diameter and isolated damaging wind gusts to 65
mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 104 degrees are
currently forecast across the area Friday through Sunday. Heat
indices are currently forecast to be a few degrees either side of
100 degrees each afternoon, mainly east of Highway 25.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     Hail             Vona                    39.31N 102.75W
07/07/2024  E0.88 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Estimated size. Timing estimated via radar.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
540 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Hail             7 SSE Vona              39.21N 102.72W
07/07/2024  E1.00 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Estimated quarter sized hail. Time radar
            estimated.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Hail             5 SW Stratton           39.24N 102.67W
07/07/2024  E1.75 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Public

            Accumulating hail estimated to be golf ball
            in size. Hail was covering the ground.
            Timing estimated via radar.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
605 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
07/07/2024  M56 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.

&&

TT