Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
843 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for strong/severe thunderstorms producing
  locally excessive rainfall continues tonight through Saturday.

- Warm/quite warm with only 20%-30% chances for thunderstorms
  Sunday through Tuesday. Highs in the 80s and 90s.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday with high in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Thunderstorms continue to drift to the east slowly with radar
estimated QPE and other dual pol products indicating fairly
robust rainfall rates with a few stronger storms producing large
hail, although coverage is very limited.

Short range models really struggling with overall development as
large scale forcing is weak and it looks like storms may
organize around small scale MCV to the south and along stalled
frontal zone/impinging weak LLJ to the north. Activity will
continue to drift to the east, although confidence in specifics
is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Tonight...another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
move into western Kit Carson county by 6 PM MDT, continuing east or
east-southeast toward Highway 27 by 9 PM MDT. After 9 PM MDT, the
currently forecast is for these storms to continue moving toward the
east with possibly another cluster of thunderstorms to develop along
and north of the KS/NE border where convergence along a cold front
is forecast. The two separate areas/clusters of thunderstorms
may merge after midnight across Norton/Graham counties. Primary
hazards will be large hail, strong damaging wind gusts and
excessive rainfall that could produce flooding/flash flooding.
Those who received heavy rainfall Wednesday night would have a
heightened threat for flooding/flash flooding. Low temperatures
are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s.

Friday-Friday night...despite some mid level dry air moving in
behind any morning convection, there remains ample moisture below
700mb to combine with daytime heating to support at least a 20%
chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day. Overnight,
another weather system moves off the Colorado front range and
through the area, supporting a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to near 80
with low temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...another round of showers and thunderstorms
are forecast during the afternoon and overnight hours as another
weather system moves through from the west. High temperatures rise
into the lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the
lower 50s to around 60.

Sunday-Sunday night...a weak weather disturbance embedded within
nearly zonal flow aloft may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms
north of I-70 in the afternoon with coverage expanding to areas
generally east of Highway 27 overnight. High temperatures rise into
the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Monday...presently, a generally dry forecast is anticipated as
moisture from 850-500mb is a bit drier compared to the past several
days. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s with low
temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday...slight chance and low chance pops for showers and
thunderstorms exists in the afternoon through overnight hours as the
influence of a passing upper level low triggers a few storms. High
temperatures warm back up into the 90 to 95 degree range with low
temperatures in the 50s.

Wednesday...dry weather is currently forecast upper a building upper
level ridge. High temperatures cool a bit into the 80 to 85 degree
range with low temperatures in the 50s.

Thursday...dry weather is again forecast with high temperatures in
the lower to middle 80s and low temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Main focus for this evening lies with the again risk for showers
and storms where some may be severe. Overall confidence in
coverage and exact location of storms is still unfortunately low
as there are many subtle features today can make or break the
coverage and intensity of storms; so have opted to go with a
VCTS for each terminal for now. If a terminal is impacted then
sub VFR conditions would become likely. Storm chances will
diminish after sunrise with stratus lingering around for the
good portion of the day Friday with MVFR ceilings looking likely
at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

The flooding chance for parts of the area have increased today
with much of the area from Kit Carson [CO] county to Logan [KS]
county and south seeing a total of 2 to 5 inches across the past
two evenings. The main help in these areas is that they were
relatively dry before the storms moved through which has seemed
to help mitigate any potential flooding so far.

For today, we are watching for a couple of clusters to develop
in the area. Unfortunately, they are favoring the areas that
have seen the rainfall the past few days. These storms could
cluster and/or move slowly which would likely lead to another
few inches of rainfall. With soil saturation estimated to near
50% or more, flooding will become more likely, especially in an
instance where another quick 3+ inches falls.

Going into the weekend, the flooding threat continues though
Friday has a bit lower of a chance right now with the forecast
suggesting faster storms and lesser coverage. Saturday and
Sunday however have the chance to add more heavy rain to areas
that have already seen decent rain. Will need to see how much
the area gets today.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg
HYDROLOGY...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
240 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 /340 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A few clusters of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
forecast to impact various parts of the Tri-State area as early as 6
PM MDT, continuing through the overnight hours as they move to the
east. The primary hazards through 3 AM MDT include damaging wind
gusts up to 65 mph, hail up to the size of ping pong balls, and
locally excessive rainfall that could produce flooding or flash
flooding. A tornado threat exists through mid evening west of a line
from McCook to Colby and Cheyenne Wells. After 3 AM MDT, the primary
hazards appear to be hail under one inch in diameter, gusty winds
and locally excessive rainfall that could produce flooding or flash
flooding. Locations that received heavy rainfall Wednesday night
would have a heightened threat for flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Severe thunderstorms remain possible Friday and Saturday. Storms are
forecast to move from west to east across the area and potentially
produce large hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. We would appreciate reports of
severe weather and flooding via telephone and social media.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
632 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

COZ092-310100-
Cheyenne County CO-
632 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 632 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kit Carson, or 26 miles west of Cheyenne Wells, moving north at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kit Carson around 640 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 10290 3880 10264 3861 10276 3861 10277
      3870 10297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 195DEG 6KT 3874 10284

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Trigg

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