Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Goodland, KS

155 
WWUS83 KGLD 060849
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024


COZ254-KSZ027-028-041-042-070200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0013.240506T1500Z-240507T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0012.240507T1700Z-240508T0100Z/
Cheyenne-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-Wichita-
249 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 /349 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027, 028, 041, 042, AND
254...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027, 028, 041, 042, AND 254...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 027 Wallace, 028 Logan, 041 
  Greeley, 042 Wichita and 254 Cheyenne.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Blowing dust will also be
  possible in the morning and early afternoon today, which could 
  hamper response efforts due to reduced visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.

&&

$$

COZ253-KSZ013-070200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0013.240506T1500Z-240507T0200Z/
Kit Carson-Sherman-
249 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 253...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 013 Sherman and 253 Kit 
  Carson.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 13 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Blowing dust will also be
  possible in the morning and early afternoon today, which could 
  hamper response efforts due to reduced visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/goodland

459 
WWUS83 KGLD 062000
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...Red Flat Warnings in Effect Monday and Tuesday Afternoon...

COZ254-KSZ027-028-041-042-070500-
/O.UPG.KGLD.FW.A.0012.240507T1700Z-240508T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.FW.W.0014.240507T1700Z-240508T0100Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240507T0200Z/
Cheyenne-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-Wichita-
200 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 /300 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 027, 028, 041, 042, AND 254... ...RED FLAG WARNING 
IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ TUESDAY
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
027, 028, 041, 042, AND 254...

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a Red Flag
Warning for low relative humidity values and gusty winds, which 
is in effect from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ 
Tuesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 027 Wallace, 028 Logan, 041 
  Greeley, 042 Wichita and 254 Cheyenne.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ253-KSZ013-070200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240507T0200Z/
Kit Carson-Sherman-
200 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
013 AND 253...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 013 Sherman and 253 Kit 
  Carson.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/goodland

568 
WWUS83 KGLD 070156
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
756 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

COZ254-KSZ027-028-041-042-071300-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240507T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0014.240507T1700Z-240508T0100Z/
Cheyenne-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-Wichita-
756 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 /856 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/
TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027, 028, 041, 042, AND 254...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
027, 028, 041, 042, AND 254...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 027 Wallace, 028 Logan, 041 
  Greeley, 042 Wichita and 254 Cheyenne.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ253-KSZ013-070300-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240507T0200Z/
Kit Carson-Sherman-
756 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 013 AND 253...

Winds have diminished and relative humidity is gradually
recovering, so the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/goodland

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
930 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from mid-
  morning Monday through early afternoon. Large hail and gusty
  winds will be the main concerns, although an isolated tornado
  cannot be entirely ruled out.

- A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect Monday for Kit Carson
  and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado, and Wallace,
  Greeley, Wichita, and Logan counties in northwestern Kansas,
  due to low relative humidity and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover continues over most of
the Goodland CWA this afternoon.  There is some clearing occurring
in the far western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in
Colorado.  Expect at least partial cloud cover to continue for most
locations for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight.

Heading into Monday, a boundary will move across the region during
the morning hours.  There is concern that thunderstorms will
initiate along the boundary around mid-morning, moving to the east
through early afternoon.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible with large hail and damaging wind being the main
concerns with any storms.  An isolated tornado cannot be entirely
ruled out.  For most areas, storms should be out of the area by
around 12pm MDT.  A few lingering showers/storms may be possible
into the early afternoon for areas along and east of a line from
McCook to Morland.

Gusty winds and low relative humidity values will be a concern from
mid-morning Monday through Monday evening.  Southeasterly winds will
shift to the west behind the boundary, with winds gusting as high as
45 MPH.  Minimum relative humidity values may fall as low as 10
percent in the afternoon.  A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Wallace, Greeley,
Wichita, and Logan counties in Kansas for Monday.  Fire weather
concerns will lessen as RH values improve around sunset.  Although
limited, a little bit of blowing dust may also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday, the closed low that brought the boundary through the Tri-
State area, will move up into the Dakotas and eastern Montana. Winds
will remain fairly gusty.  Fire weather concerns will once again be
something to watch out for heading into the afternoon hours.
Afternoon highs will be primarily in the 70s, with a few 60s in
eastern Colorado.

Wednesday and Thursday, models show the low moving to the southeast,
back into Nebraska.  During this time, a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms may move through the northern portions of the area.
Additionally, there will be the potential for a few areas where
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions may be possible.

Friday, flow transitions to northerly to northwesterly.  The pattern
is looking a little more active as a disturbance is expected to move
into the area over the weekend, bringing a chance for some rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Not a whole lot of change from 00z taf issuance.

KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 13z
with winds from the south gusting to around 40kts. Some light
drizzle will be possible which may produce some light reductions
in visibility. From 14z-01z, southwesterly winds gusting to
40kts in the morning slowly veer to the west, gusting to similar
speeds. After 02z, west winds subside below 12kts. Blowing dust
may impact the terminal for an hour or so either side of 15z
per local blowing dust research findings using the hourly GFS
data. After about 16z, the potential narrow plume shifts south
and out of the county. For now, have left blowing dust out of
the taf given the potential plume being just south of the
terminal. If the plume does move over the terminal, research
findings show cigs in 1500-2500 ft range (sub VFR) with reduced
visibilities (also sub VFR).

KMCK...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 15z
with light drizzle possible. Winds will be from the south to
southeast, gusting up to 35kts. From 16z-18z, cigs should
improve as winds veer to the southwest, gusting up to 35kts. Its
at this time there is a possibility of thunderstorms moving
through the terminal, some of which could be severe. From
19z-02z, VFR conditions continue with winds veering to the west,
gusting up to 35kts. After 03z, winds subside below 12kts while
backing to the southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday through
     Monday evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening
     for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
610 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 /710 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds will continue overnight. Wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph will be possible generally west of Highway 27. Winds of this
magnitude may create hazardous travel conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along a line from around
Trenton, Nebraska to Edson and Tribune Kansas around 9 AM MDT (10 AM
CDT), continuing east and out of the area by 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT).
The primary hazards include very large hail up to baseballs if the
storms remain discrete, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. If the
storms develop into a line, hail size up to golf balls would be
possible along with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

A plume of blowing dust will be possible from around 9 AM MDT to 2
PM MDT, impacting portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in
Colorado, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace, Logan, Sheridan, Rawlins and
Decatur counties. Should the plume develop, the primary hazards will
be sharp reductions in visibility and poor air quality.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Monday for Cheyenne and Kit Carson
counties in Colorado, Wallace, Logan, Greeley and Wichita counties.

Near critical and critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
across the entire Tri-State area Tuesday. Near critical fire weather
conditions are forecast south of Interstate 70 Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. Spotter activation
will be needed Monday morning through the afternoon. We would
appreciate reports of severe weather and blowing dust via telephone
and social media.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
05/05/2024  M54 MPH          Sherman            KS   ASOS

            The ASOS in Goodland, KS (KGLD) measured a
            54 mph (47 knot) southerly wind gust at
            10:44 pm MDT (0444 UTC). Sustained winds at
            30-35 mph.

&&

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1212 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
05/05/2024  M53 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            The ASOS in Burlington, CO (KITR) measured a
            53 mph (46 knot) southerly wind gust at
            11:46 pm MDT (0546 UTC). Sustained wind at
            37 mph.

&&

Vincent