Tornado Warning 9, NWS Hastings, NE

145 
WWUS53 KGID 261851
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

NEC093-261900-
/O.CAN.KGID.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240426T1930Z/
Howard NE-
151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN HOWARD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 9829 4148 9829 4148 9820 4142 9826
      4139 9828 4139 9866 4169 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 221DEG 17KT 4142 9843 

$$

NEC077-125-261930-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240426T1930Z/
Greeley NE-Nance NE-
151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
GREELEY AND WEST CENTRAL NANCE COUNTIES...

At 150 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wolbach, or 28 
miles southwest of Albion, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Wolbach around 155 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4157 9829 4148 9829 4148 9820 4142 9826
      4139 9828 4139 9866 4169 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 221DEG 17KT 4142 9843 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Wesely

236 
WWUS53 KGID 261907
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
207 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

NEC077-125-261930-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240426T1930Z/
Greeley NE-Nance NE-
207 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
GREELEY AND WEST CENTRAL NANCE COUNTIES...

At 206 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wolbach, or 27 
miles southwest of Albion, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
eastern Greeley and west central Nance Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4157 9829 4148 9829 4148 9820 4142 9826
      4139 9828 4139 9855 4169 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 221DEG 16KT 4141 9838 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Wesely

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
712 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...Aviation and Short Term Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We're suddenly mired in a VERY active weather pattern, with
  mainly the northeast 1/2 of our coverage area (CWA) in a
  Marginal-to-Slight Risk for a few severe storms today (mainly
  11 AM-5 PM), and then following a brief break overnight into
  much of Saturday daytime, most of our CWA again goes under a
  threat for severe storms mid-late Saturday afternoon-overnight
  (overall-highest risk looks to be our southern half, and a few
  far southeast counties are now in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of
  5).

- Storms over the last 24 hours (and especially the last 10
  hours) were VERY EFFICIENT "rainers", and at least localized
  flooding issues are likely ongoing within a swath across the
  heart of our Nebraska CWA that picked up a widespread
  2.50-4.50+" of rain overnight. See separate HYDROLOGY section
  below for all further discussion of recent and upcoming heavy
  rain concerns.

- Beyond the Saturday afternoon-overnight severe storm threat,
  the overall pattern remains active, and although there are no
  truly "obvious" severe storm threats evident at this time, at
  least parts of the CWA carry thunderstorm chances Sunday
  daytime, and then again between Tuesday afternoon and
  Thursday.

- Temperature-wise: nothing very noteworthy to speak of by late-
  April into early-May standards, with highs mainly in the
  60s/70s each day and lows mainly in the 40s each night (with
  some very limited 30s/50s).

- Chances for frost development late Sun night-Mon AM mainly in
  northern/western parts of the CWA have (at least for now)
  backed off a bit from previous forecast (although this is
  still the overall-chilliest night in our 7-day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

- Quick "patchy fog" note:
On top of everything else going on in today's forecast, we've
recently seen the onset of at least patchy, mainly light fog
(visibility mainly no worse than 1-2 miles) across various parts
of our CWA especially over the last hour. As a result, have
added generic "patchy fog" to the forecast for all but our
southern- most KS counties through mid-morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

-- PRIMARY CHANGES TO THIS 7-DAY FORECAST VERSUS THE PREVIOUS
 ONE (issued Thurs afternoon):

- In the very short term (first 12 hours), although the threat
  certainly still exists, it appears the spatial/temporal threat
  for a few tornadoes mainly in our northern/northeastern
  counties today has perhaps diminished a bit (higher
  confidence that the MAIN tornado threat should focus east of
  our CWA, although it could be a VERY close call and
  mesoscale/radar trends will need monitored very closely.

- Concern is increasing for the Saturday mid-late afternoon into
  overnight severe storm threat, and have added more detail to
  our Hazardous Weather Outlook to better heighten awareness.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS (chronological order, but
 "finer details" heavily weighted toward first 24-36 hours):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
In short, while there was widespread thunderstorm activity
overnight (especially in our Nebraska zones), heavy
rain/flooding ending up being a much bigger story than actual
severe weather, as our threat was muted by remaining north of
the primary low-level instability axis (storms were more
elevated above a cooler/more stable low layer). As of this
writing, only showers and a few weak storms are ongoing in our
eastern and also extreme western zones, although a strong
40-50KT low level jet (evident at 850 millibars) continues
overhead. In the big picture, water vapor satellite imagery and
short term model data confirm the heart of a powerful mid-upper
level low churning over the NE/KS/CO border area, while a
roughly 994-996 millibar surface low axis resides along a north-
south axis through western NE/KS (just west of our CWA). As a
result, early-AM breezes are mainly out of the east at 10-20 MPH
(except more southeasterly in far southern/southeast zones where
convective outflow has not been as big of a factor. Low temps
this morning are on track to bottom out mainly low-mid 50s.

- TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING:
In the big picture, the heart of the upper level low will shift
northeast to over north central/northeast NE by this evening, as
the surface low track through mainly the northwest half of our
CWA over the course of the day, deepening to around 990
millibars in the process. As this low migrates east-northeast,
winds will gradually shift to southerly, then southwesterly,
then westerly across our CWA. Speed-wise, we are fortunately not
expecting anything overly-strong with the non-
thunderstorm/synoptic winds, with sustained speeds both ahead
of and behind the passing Pacific cold front/weak dryline not
expected to exceed 20-30 MPH and gusts mainly 35-40 MPH tops.

Obviously the convective/thunderstorm trends are then our
primary concern. Leaning heavily on short term/higher-res models
such as HRRR/RAP, there appears to have been a SLIGHT increase
in the timing of the passage of the main Pacific cold front as
it sweeps into our CWA from southwest to northeast today. with
even northern/northeast counties expected to see winds turn more
due-southerly by early afternoon and then southwesterly by mid
afternoon. Of course, this wind shift will be key to any tornado
threat, as in these kind of "cold core" severe setups, typically
the tornado threat disappears once winds shift to southwesterly
and low-level shear diminishes. That being said, especially our
far northern/northeast counties will need watched very closely
especially 11 AM-4 PM for any signs of rotation with potential
low-topped supercells, as sometimes storms near the strong
surface low can produce with little notice. Overall though,
currently agree with SPC keeping the more concerning Enhanced
Risk and 10% tornado probs slightly east of our CWA. Whether or
not any tornadoes materialize within our CWA, there is a better
chance that a few isolated storms will carry mainly a severe
hail threat (PERHAPS up to around golf ball size if any
supercells can fully tap into the projected 1500-2000 J/kg mixed
layer CAPE in the presence of strong 40-50KT deep layer shear.
By around 5-6 PM, we will likely be "in the clear" from any
severe storm threat, although a few cores with small hail could
persist.

Potential limiting factors to truly surface-based (and tornadic)
storm potential today will be how quickly/slowly the current
expansive deck of low stratus clouds might clear out. Although
it might only take a small amount of heating/clearing to pop a
few robust storms, the longer low clouds stick around, the lower
our surface-based severe threat might be. That being said, an
elevated storm threat is still very real, and even at this early
hour we are seeing redevelopment of a few stronger storms JUST
west of our CWA where steeper mid level lapse rates are
arriving.

Temp-wise, blended several short term model sets together to
derive highs...aimed from low-mid 60s northwest to low-mid 70s
east-southeast (any upper 70s mainly Mitchell County KS area).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
In the wake of the departing system, we are looking at a dry and
storm-free overnight. Winds will gradually lighten and turn more
northerly than westerly, and skies will become no worse than
partly cloudy if not mostly clear. Low temps aimed mid-upper 40s
most areas.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-OVERNIGHT:
Just don't have much time to dive in deeply here, but here are
the main things:

- Most of the daytime hours should be dry/storm free as the next
  powerful upper low approaches from Colorado.

- Sometime especially 4-7 PM, isolated to scattered storms will
  likely erupt along/north of a warm front lifting into our our
  southern zones, potentially becoming severe quickly and
  offering a threat for hail/damaging winds and perhaps even a
  few tornadoes in an environment projected to feature 2000+
  J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE and very strong deep layer shear of
  50+KT.

- The primary area of concern looks to be counties south of I-80
  down into our KS zones, where the Slight/Enhanced Risk
  categories reside. This severe threat could last well into the
  night, but probably peak prior to 1 AM.

- Temp-wise, highs Saturday could vary more sharply from north-
  to-south than our current forecast projects (depending on
  exactly where the frontal zone ends up), but for now aiming
  from mid 60s north-northwest to mid 70s and a few 80s far
  south-southeast. Lows Sat night mainly 40s west/50s east.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
At least for now, not expecting a severe storm threat Sunday,
but at least a few stronger storms with mainly a hail threat
cannot be ruled out, and any slowing of the upper system could
bring at least a Marginal Risk back west into parts of our CWA.
Most areas should be dry Sunday-Sunday night, and IF low temps
trend any colder then perhaps some limited frost could develop
in far west-northwest counties such as Dawson/Sherman/Valley
(the counties overall least susceptible to frost impacts in our
CWA).

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
Although not a guarantee to stay this way, this is currently
projected as a dry 24 hours CWA-wide with no notable
disturbances passing through the mainly zonal (west-east) flow
aloft.

- TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
While most places will surely be dry most of the time, we at
least catch "glancing blows" from a few mid-upper level
disturbances passing by mainly just to our north, with the
potential for a few surface fronts to also get shoved southward
through our area. As a result, the Tues afternoon-Thursday
timeframe is currently littered with various rain/thunderstorm
chances, but being of lower confidence none of these chances
(PoPs) are currently more than 20-40%. Probably a non-zero
threat for a few strong/severe storms at times, but details WAY
too murky to get into yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

UP FRONT NOTE REGARDING KEAR:
Will continue taking KEAR TAF with "AMD NOT SKED" (amendments
not scheduled) until routine weather observation transmission is
restored there.

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR:
This is a somewhat complex period, as a strong low pressure
system passes through the region from southwest to northeast,
accompanied by several aviation concerns including: sub-VFR
ceilings and visibility, showers and thunderstorms, breezy to
moderately-windy winds and a gradual directional shift from
east-southeasterly, to southerly, to southwesterly, to westerly
and eventually northwesterly.

- Ceiling/visibility/rainfall/thunderstorm details:
Starting off right away this morning, these first few hours will
feature the overall lowest ceilings and visibility of the
period, with LIFR ceiling and IFR/MVFR visibility prevailing in
light fog (and probably some drizzle). By late morning and into
the early afternoon, ceiling is expected to gradually improve to
MVFR and then low-end VFR, with VFR then expected to prevail
through the remainder of the period.

As for rain shower/thunderstorm potential, at least spotty
(generally isolated to perhaps scattered) coverage of convection
is likely especially during the 15-00Z time frame, and this is
being handled with generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) groups
as confidence in any particular prevailing time frame is low.
Odds favor any thunderstorms being non-severe, but a brief
period of hail cannot be ruled out.

- Wind details (not accounting for any convective influences):
For the majority of the first 18 hours, sustained speeds will
average 15-25KT/gusts 20-30KT, with sustained speeds easing
under 15KT by around 03/04Z, and then the lightest winds of the
period (under 10KT) prevailing after 08/09Z. Direction-wise,
passing low pressure will result in a gradual/general shift from
east-southeasterly this morning, to southerly mid-morning to
early afternoon, to southwesterly mid afternoon, to westerly
late afternoon-evening and eventually northwesterly late
tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Needless to say, this low pressure system has turned into WAY
more of a rain-maker than its recent predecessors!

- LOOKING BACK:
Based on radar estimation and various gauge measurements,
roughly 75% of our CWA received AT LEAST 1" of much-needed rain
in the last 24 hours, including a widespread 1-3" yesterday
morning mainly along and slightly south of the KS border, and
then a more impressive, roughly 40-50 mile wide swath roughly
centered along an Elwood-Kearney-Grand Island-Osceola line that
saw a widespread 2.50-4.50" (very localized higher) during this
past evening-overnight.

Obviously parts of the aforementioned swath through the heart
of our Nebraska CWA saw a little TOO MUCH rain...and as of this
writing several Flood Advisories and a few Flash Flood Warnings
are in effect. Reports of flood impacts have been few so far
(typical of this time of day), but obviously soils were quite
dry across the vast majority of our CWA heading into this given
what had been a dry April, so runoff/flooding was likely muted
to some degree.

Unfortunately, roughly 25% of our CWA fell short (in some
places well short) of 1" over the last 24 hours, particularly
large parts of the following counties: Adams, Webster, Nuckolls,
Thayer, Rooks, Osborne.

- LOOKING AHEAD:
Fortunately, rainfall over these next 12 hours or so should be
less heavy/concentrated, although could see some spots
especially north of I-80 perhaps pick up another 0.50-1.00".

Starting this evening, our entire CWA then enters a solid 18-24
lull in rain chances, which should allow most lingering flooding
issues to subside pretty fully.

However, we will need to closely monitor rainfall trends with
our next main round slated for Saturday mid-late afternoon into
the overnight hours, as this system looks like it could easily
drop another 1-2+" in various areas, including perhaps some of
the same locations that just saw heavy rain. Given the
aforementioned 18-24 hour break in any rain whatsoever "in
between" the current and upcoming system, am not necessarily
sure if an official Flood Watch is warranted for Sat afternoon-
overnight, but it will probably need to be considered on later
shifts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
HYDROLOGY...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
355 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
270900-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
355 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible almost anywhere
in the outlook area today into early this evening. Especially
between 11 AM and 5 PM, there is a chance that a few storms could
become severe, with the main threat for severe storms primarily
east and northeast of a line from Kearney to Red Cloud Nebraska,
to Jewell Kansas, where a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe
storms exists. The primary threats with any severe storms will be
hail up to around golf ball size and wind gusts to around 60 MPH.
In addition, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially with
any storms that develop within counties north or northeast of the
Nebraska Tri Cities. However, the overall-greater threat for
possible tornadoes today should focus east of the outlook area
altogether.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm threat today, at least
localized flooding issues will continue today from heavy overnight
rain. Flooding is most likely to affect locations roughly 20
miles either side of a line from Elwood, to Kearney, to Grand
Island, to Osceola...where rain amounts of 2.50 to 4.50 inches
were most concentrated. Please refer to any flood-related warnings
or advisories for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Another round of thunderstorms, some of which will likely be
severe, will develop mid to late Saturday afternoon and continue
into early Sunday morning. All but far northern parts of the
outlook area are under at least a Marginal to Slight Risk for
severe storms, although the overall-greatest threat looks to
focus from around Interstate 80 southward into north central
Kansas. In fact, a few counties in far southeastern parts of the
outlook area are under an Enhanced Risk for severe storms. The
main threats with any severe storms Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night will be large hail to around golf ball size and
wind gusts to around 60 MPH, although a few tornadoes will also
be possible. In addition, localized flooding could again
materialize, especially if some of those same areas that just
received heavy rain happen to pick up another 1 to 2 inches.

Various thunderstorm chances are in the forecast for various parts
of the outlook area Sunday daytime, and again between Tuesday
afternoon and Thursday. At this time, it appears any Sunday
daytime storms would probably not be severe, but it is too early
to confidently assess severe weather potential for Tuesday and
beyond.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of severe weather
or ongoing flooding

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     Hail             2 N Ravenna             41.06N 98.91W
04/26/2024  E1.25 Inch       Sherman            NE   Emergency Mngr

            Started to cover the ground with quarter to
            half-dollar size hail.

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     Tornado          2 NNE Ravenna           41.06N 98.90W
04/26/2024                   Sherman            NE   Storm Chaser

            Location approximate. May be adjusted.
            Estimated on the ground for 4 to 5 minutes.
            Video confirmed.

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     Tornado          Rockville               41.11N 98.82W
04/26/2024                   Sherman            NE   Emergency Mngr

            Tornado confirmed with some damage report.
            Will update pending damage survey.

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

NEZ077-087-261845-
Thayer NE-Fillmore NE-
101 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN FILLMORE AND EASTERN
THAYER COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 101 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ohiowa to near Alexandria to Mahaska. Movement
was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Milligan around 105 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central
and east central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9737 4000 9757 4055 9757 4070 9742
      4070 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 215DEG 40KT 4044 9745 4021 9735 3998 9733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rossi

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
103 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     Tornado          1 S Farwell             41.21N 98.63W
04/26/2024                   Howard             NE   Trained Spotter

            Reported by fireman. Moving north/northeast
            at the time.

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
129 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     Tornado          2 NNW Elba              41.31N 98.58W
04/26/2024                   Howard             NE   NWS Employee

            Several reports of confirmed tornado west
            and north of Elba. Time and location
            approximate pending damage survey.

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz