Tornado Warning 31, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible across the area this afternoon into
  this evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
  winds.

- Showers and storms will also be possible Sunday and again on
  Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to mid 90s with
  low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today and tonight...

A broad, upper trough is over most of the country with an upper
ridge over the West Coast. Clear to mostly clear skies are across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Winds are generally light and
variable. An upper disturbance will pass over the central Plains
today, and this will create enhanced lift over the area. Fairly high
CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates will be over the area
this afternoon which will contribute to possible severe
thunderstorms. Most of the forecast area is in a slight risk for
severe storms with the rest of the area in a marginal risk. The main
timing for severe storms appears to be this afternoon into this
evening. Some storms may develop (up to around a 40% chance) this
morning across mainly areas along and north of I-80, but these
storms are not expected to be severe. The main threats with the
strongest storms today will be large hail and damaging winds.
Additional showers and storms may develop (up to around a 35%
chance) tonight but are not expected to be severe. There is some
uncertainty in regards to high temperatures this afternoon due to
possible morning and early afternoon convection. Generally expect
high temperatures today to range from the upper 70s to mid 90s.
Temperatures across north central Kansas and portions of south
central Nebraska will have the potential to heat up due to a surface
trough in place. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
50s and 60s.

Sunday through Monday night...

Another upper level disturbance will move over the area on Sunday
along with a cold front. This will lead to continued rain and storm
chances (up to around 65%) during the day on Sunday. Severe weather
is generally not expected on Sunday with much lower instability and
wind shear. Temperatures will be cooler with highs mostly in the
70s. Temperatures Sunday night will also be cooler with lows mainly
in the 50s with clearing skies and light northerly winds. The upper
trough will still be over the region on Monday but no precipitation
is expected. Light northerly winds will be present on Monday with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Low temperatures Monday night will
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday through Friday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of the upper trough on Tuesday. An upper ridge will
be building over the western part of the country. Temperatures on
Tuesday are expected to warm up into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Rain
and storm chances (15% to 20%) return to parts of the area on
Wednesday as an upper disturbance moves overhead. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be similar or slightly cooler than the previous day.
Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar to the previous
night. Temperatures are expected to continue heating up Thursday and
Friday with highs reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s on Friday. This
will be a result of an upper ridge to the west having more impact
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and thunderstorms moving across the area will impact the
TAF sites this afternoon. The most likely timeframe for KEAR
will be between 06/19Z and 06/22Z, and from 06/20Z to 06/23Z at
KGRI. Some of these thunderstorms are expected to produce hail
to the size of golf balls and potentially brief gusts of over 60
mph. There may be brief visibility reductions in heavy rain as
well. CIGS are expected to remain VFR through the evening with
bases around 5k-7k ft AGL. CIGS may drop to IFR to MVFR briefly
toward the end of the period Sunday morning. Wind direction will
be pretty variable through the period, but generally easterly
through this evening (other than near thunderstorms where winds
will be erratic and gusty). Winds will become light and variable
overnight, then northerly mid- to late Sunday morning. Outside
of thunderstorm impacts, winds are expected to be 8 kts or less
through the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Hickford

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
445 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
070945-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
445 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this morning mainly along and north of
Interstate 80. No severe weather is expected.

Strong to severe storms will likely develop and move across the
outlook area this afternoon into this evening. Hail up to the size
of golf balls and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible.

Thunderstorms will again be possible tonight but are not expected
to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night and again
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of severe weather.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
103 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     Hail             2 NNE Willow Island     40.90N 100.05W
07/06/2024  M2.00 Inch       Dawson             NE   Public

            Image of hail next to measuring tape sent in
            through social media.

&&

KS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Hail             2 ENE Lexington         40.79N 99.71W
07/06/2024  E0.88 Inch       Dawson             NE   Trained Spotter

&&

KS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
107 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Hail             1 NE Johnson Lake       40.69N 99.83W
07/06/2024  M1.50 Inch       Gosper             NE   Public

            Social media image sent in next to ruler.

&&

KS