Tornado Warning 26, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
444 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are expected to develop this
  afternoon, with all forms of severe weather possible. These
  storms should eventually merge this evening with a transition
  to mainly a wind threat after dark. Areas north and east of
  the Tri-cities could see rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
  resulting in potential flooding.

- Heat index values have climbed over 100 across areas south of
  the warm front this afternoon, and should fill in northward
  across much of the remaining advisory area over the next few
  hours. Heat concerns should diminish by mid-evening.

- A cold front will bring northerly winds and mild temperatures
  to the area Tuesday, slowly crossing the local area through
  the daytime hours. A few strong to severe storms will be
  possible near and to the south of this front Tuesday PM.

- Another round of more widespread thunderstorms, some of which
  could be severe, is anticipated Wednesday evening.

- The 4th of July is looking fairly pleasant with high
  temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the north and mid
  to upper 80s across north central Kansas. Dry weather is
  expect for the late afternoon through evening hours Thursday.

- Near to below normal temperatures with various small chances
  for precipitation expected through the remainder of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A warm front is lifting north across the region this afternoon.
Ahead of this front, low clouds and stratus have held
temperatures down in the 70s, while temperatures have spiked to
the south, with heat index values climbing above 100 the past
couple of hours across north central Kansas. Where skies have
remained clear, instability has grown the past few hours, and a
few storms are starting to develop across northwestern Kansas.
Given the shear associated with the warm front, these storms
could rapidly turn severe as they reach our area, and a tornado
watch is now in effect for all of south central Nebraska
through 10 PM. Later in the evening, as the storms merge and
develop into a line, expect the threat to transition to strong
winds, with thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph possible with
the stronger storms.

In addition to the chance for severe weather this evening, some
models have a secondary cluster of thunderstorms developing
across the Panhandle of Nebraska with a cold front and crossing
the area overnight, with the focus of the heaviest precipitation
mainly east of the Tri-Cities. If this develops, these areas
could see some significant rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches from
these multiple rounds of precipitation, potentially resulting
in localized flooding, and flood watch is also in effect for
several Nebraska counties mainly east of Highway 281 from 7 PM
this evening through 7 AM Tuesday morning.

As the aforementioned cold front stretches across the southern
portions of our area on Tuesday, could see additional storm
development mainly southeast of the Tri-Cities during the
afternoon hours, some of which will have the potential to be
strong to severe. This front should then sag further south on
Wednesday, with an upper level disturbance forecast to impact
the local area Wednesday night. This could bring some fairly
widepsread precipitation to the area again Wednesday night,
along with a small potential for some severe weather, especially
for areas west of Highway 281.

Thereafter the upper level flow will remain fairly active...with
multiple disturbances embedded in seasonably cool northwesterly
flow impacting the local area through next weekend. This will
result in generally near to below normal temperatures each
afternoon along with off and on again small chances for addition
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level stratus can be seen eroding across north central
Kansas early this afternoon on satellite imagery. This trend is
forecast to continue over the next few hours, with improving
conditions at both terminals anticipated by 01/21Z-01/22Z. As
conditions improve, thunderstorms are expected to develop
west/southwest of the terminals, spreading east during the late
afternoon through evening hours. While both terminals will
likely be impacted by a period of +TSRAs along with the
potential for some strong thunderstorm wind gusts and even
severe weather, kept only a mention of a VCTS for the time
being and will need to amend TAFs to include the stronger storms
once they develop and timing becomes more clear. Contemplated a
6 hour period of LLWS at the terminals after midnight, but
ultimately opted to disregard as the agreement was not great in
model data and confidence was low. Thunderstorm chances should
shift east and diminish at the terminals around 02/07-08Z...with
a shift to northerly winds anticipated behind a cold front
during the morning hours Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ072-082-083.
     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for NEZ040-041-047>049-063-064.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021730-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 5pm and midnight,
nearly the entire area will be under at least a small chance for
severe storms, with the threat overall-greater in Nebraska
counties than Kansas counties. Hail to the size of golf balls,
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 MPH, and perhaps a few tornadoes
are all possible. Although the threat for severe storms should
largely wane by midnight, scattered weaker storms could continue
well into the night.

In addition to the chance for severe weather, heavy rainfall will
impact portions of the area, with isolated rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches possible for areas generally northeast of the Nebraska
tri-cities, which could see multiple rounds of thunderstorms. As
a result, a flood watch is in effect starting at 7 PM. Please see
the latest flood watch product for additional information.

Turning to heat concerns:
Areas along and south of the Kansas, Nebraska state line will
become quite hot this afternoon, with heat index values of at
least 100 to 105 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory will be in
effect from 1 to 8 PM for all area Kansas counties, along with
Gosper, Furnas and Harlan counties in Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

On Tuesday, at least spotty, and mainly weak thunderstorms will
be possible almost anywhere in the outlook area. However, there
is at least a Marginal Risk that a few severe storms could
develop along a cold front in far southeast portions of the area,
affecting counties such as Thayer, Jewell and Mitchell.
Marginally severe hail and wind are the primary threats. These
extreme southeast parts of the area may also experience another
day with heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees along and just ahead
of the cold front.

Between Wednesday and Saturday, intermittent thunderstorm chances
continue for various parts of the area, including at least low
chances for Thursday, Independence Day, mainly in the morning.
Some of the thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight could
be strong to severe, particularly along and west of Highway 183.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Please report any instances of
large hail, strong wind gusts over 50 MPH, tornadoes, heavy
rainfall in excess of 3 inches, or flooding that may occur today
and tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

NEZ072-082-012230-
Gosper NE-Furnas NE-
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GOSPER AND FURNAS
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bartley, or 15 miles east of McCook, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cambridge around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998
      4059 9998 4043 9983 4000 9971 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 240DEG 31KT 4020 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels