Snow Squall Warning 2, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1131 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow this afternoon with new snow amounts ranging from a
  dusting to 2 inches, mainly over our northeastern half.

- Even with light snow totals, increasing north winds result in
  patchy blowing snow and reduced visbility late this afternoon
  into tonight. Winter Weather Advisory was expanded southward
  slightly.

- Another shot of cold tonight through Saturday night. Wind
  chills below -20 tonight, and possibly below -30 in some areas
  Friday night.

- Warmer next week with rain chances Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Snow potential for today has nudged slightly further south
compared to 12-18 hours ago, but the heaviest part of the band
is still expected to pass to our northeast. Kansas and southwest
Nebraska are unlikely to get any accumulating snow, with amounts
ranging from a dusting to around 1" for most of the rest of the
area. Localized spots could see up to 2". The main timeframe
for accumulating snow is 12pm to 6pm.

North winds increase between 1pm and 4pm, with gusts up to 40
MPH possible at times. The strongest winds will be in our west,
but gusts over 30 MPH are possible across the entire area,
including areas receiving fresh snowfall. These areas will
see blowing/drifting snow, and could continue to see impacts
from this through the overnight hours even after snow ends. The
evening commute will be the most heavily impacted, but there
could be some lingering minor drifting into the early morning
hours of Friday.

Subzero air temperatures are expected late tonight into Friday
morning. Winds will be gradually decreasing, but wind chills at
or below -20 are likely for most of the area. No changes to the
Wind Chill Advisory.

Northwest winds continue Friday, but will decrease substantially
Friday evening as high pressure moves in, resulting in very
effective radiational cooling, especially over our eastern half,
where air temperatures could dip as low as -20 degrees. The
light winds will significantly reduce the overall wind chill
threat, but it does not take much wind to result in dangerous
wind chills when the air temperature is that low. Therefore the
Wind Chill Watch was maintained. Most of the area will probably
end up with "only" a Wind Chill Advisory, but this will be re-
evaluated by upcoming shifts.

Saturday and and Saturday night remain cold, but models show a
substantial warmup with a shifting upper air pattern as we head
into next week. High temperatures return to near-normal (mid
30s) by Monday/Tuesday, but low temperatures could be 10-15
degrees above normal. Some areas may even stay ABOVE FREEZING
overnight Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

The potential for rain has not changed much for next week. If
anything, potential has trended downward slightly over the past
24 hours. Wednesday still has the best chance for rain,
potentially bleeding into Thursday as well. The primary area of
concern is to our southeast, but at least light rain is
possible over our are as well. Some of this COULD fall as
freezing rain, but this is not a huge concern currently. On
average, the multi- ensemble blend shows 0.20" to 0.50" from
west to east across our area next week, but of course this still
quite early and will be subject to significant changes over the
next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Deteriorating conditions are expected this afternoon-evening as
a quick-hitting disturbance swinging through the region brings
snow to the terminal areas. Overall worst conditions are
expected to occur between midday and sunset. Snow works into the
area first, causing some visby/ceiling reductions...then the
stronger winds arrive while snow is falling, looking to cause
at least a few hours of potentially IFR/LIFR conditions. Winds
start off this period lighter/at times variable, but that won't
last long as the main front pushes through, switching winds to
the north then northwest. The stronger gusts (30+ MPH) arrive,
continuing well into the evening. Once the main area of snow
pushes through this evening, any visibility issues overnight
will be driven by BLSN caused by lingering gusts around 30 MPH.
Winds do look to diminish around 09Z or so (confidence in exact
timing is not high)...remaining around 15 MPH through the end of
the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Wind Chill Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-077.
KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.
     Wind Chill Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP

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Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
211 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

NEZ061-074>076-085>087-182300-
Buffalo-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
Including the cities of Kearney, Minden, Hastings, Sutton,
Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Inavale, Red Cloud,
Blue Hill, Rosemont, Bladen, Bostwick, Superior, Nelson, Hebron,
and Deshler
211 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

...A Quick Hit of Snow and Blowing Snow Could Cause At Least Minor
Travel Issues This Afternoon...

Although these counties are not currently included in a formal
Winter Weather Advisory due to the expectation that new snowfall
accumulation today will be less than 1 inch, the combination of
briefly-heavier bursts of snow and north winds gusting as high as
around 35 MPH could still cause at least brief visibility
reductions, slick roads and at least minor blowing and drifting
snow issues this afternoon, including for the evening commute. All
falling, accumulating snow will end from west to to east across
the area between 4 and 6 PM, but mainly minor blowing snow issues
could linger well into this evening before winds gradually subside
overnight.

Please be ready for rapidly changing, wintry weather conditions
this afternoon, despite the lack of a formal Winter Weather
Advisory.

Pfannkuch

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