Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
220 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will exit the area this evening. Despite some scattered
  rain showers, severe thunderstorms are not expected for the
  remainder of the work week.

- Seasonal Temperatures to slightly below normal for the
  remainder of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tonight:
The line of Thunderstorms will be exiting the forecast area and
moving into eastern Nebraska by around 7pm today.  Winds will be
westerly behind the line of convection. Lows tonight will be in the
40s.

Tuesday - Thursday:
The upper trough will be centered across the
north central part of the CONUS and it will have multiple lobes of
vorticity rotate around it.  Some of these disturbances could bring
some scattered showers and thunderstorms, but moisture will be
pushed out with the activity today. This will keep instability low
and remove the severe potential.  Highs will be in the 60s to low
70s.  Westerly winds on Tuesday will keep temps a bit higher due to
downslope.

The primary upper low will begin to swing southeast across the area
Wednesday which will cause winds to become northwesterly behind a
cold front.  This will drop temperatures a touch for Wednesday and
Thursday into the lower 60s which is a touch below seasonal norms
for early May.

Friday - Monday:
A piece of the upper low will get cut off over the
four corners region by Friday.  As pieces of that energy eject
eastward and another area dives southward just west of the great
lakes, Nebraska will largely sit mild conditions with small rain
shower/thunderstorm potential and near seasonal temperatures.

As we move into the next work week, guidance diverges with how the
cut-off upper low evolves, however, it does look like
Nebraska/Kansas will remain under northwesterly flow aloft which
will likely bring some rain/thunderstorm chances into next week, but
this doesn't look to be strong to severe at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR ceilings will continue in the west until thunderstorms,
likely severe, move in around 19z. In the eastern half IFR
ceiling prevail until around 20z when the severe thunderstorms
move through. Winds outside of storms will gust to 30kts from
the south. Expected winds around 50kts in thunderstorms. Clouds
will breakup and move west to east this evening, clearing out by
sunset. Winds overnight will be around 10kts from the southeast
before gusting around 25kts Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
250 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
072000-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
250 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue tracking northeastward across the
outlook area this afternoon into this evening. The primary severe
weather threats will be hail to around the size of golf balls,
wind gusts to 75 mph, and perhaps even a few tornadoes. A Tornado
Watch is in effect for most of the area into early this evening.

Today will be a windy day regardless of any thunderstorms. Strong
south southeasterly winds are expected ahead of the front today
with gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There will be a few off and on again chances for isolated
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night and again
on Sunday across portions of the outlook area. However, severe
weather is currently not expected through the remainder of the
outlook period after this evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1247 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     Hail             Beaver City             40.14N 99.83W
05/06/2024  E1.25 Inch       Furnas             NE   Public

            Report via Facebook.

&&

ADP

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