Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
349 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for strong-severe storms continues across central
  and southeastern portions of the forecast area late this
  afternoon and early evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains
  in effect until 10PM...large hail and damaging winds would be
  the primary threats.

- Once today's activity passes, much of the rest of the 7-day
  forecast period is dry. Some spotty, overall-low (20-40
  percent) chances for storms return to the forecast Monday
  night into Tuesday.

- Some "relief" from the heat after today, with highs Thur-Sat
  in the low-mid 90s for most locations...then highs creep
  further into the 90s to near 100 as we get into Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Currently on into tonight...

Convection is ongoing and continuing to march east across the
forecast area here at mid-afternoon. We had a few showers and
weak storms already move into far western counties earlier
this morning, focused along a surface cool front, and overall
activity hadn't amounted to a whole lot until some weakening
activity/heat burst occurred over portions of Valley County,
resulting in a handful of 60-ish MPH gusts and a more notable 82
MPH gust at the Ord ASOS. Since then, overall activity has
remained on the weaker side, with heavy rain and gusts up to
45-50 MPH...but concern for severe weather continues the rest of
this afternoon/early evening. The main upper level driver of
this activity is a vort max making its way east roughly along
the SD/ND border area, with a southward extending trough
reaching through western portions of NE/KS. Activity has
expanded in coverage over the past few hours, and with
mesoanalysis showing it moving into a region of MLCAPE values
near/exceeding 3000 j/kg and 0-6km and effective layer shear of
at least 35kts...concern for strengthening of ongoing activity
remains in place. Mid-level temps/capping have been pretty hefty
through the day, but the arrival of that upper level trough and
cooler temps building in aloft will aid in its erosion. Much of
the forecast area is included in the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch...areas east of HWY 281 and along/south of HWY 6...through
6PM. Hail up to the size of golf balls are not out of the
question (though freezing levels/50dbz heights are pretty high
right now)...and strong wind gusts of 60-70 MPH will be
possible, with DCAPE values anywhere in the 1000-1700 j/kg
range. Models have struggled a bit with the timing...with
ongoing activity roughly a couple hours ahead of what many of
them had shown. Watch goes until 10PM, suspect many counties
will be removed from the watch well before then (esp
northern/western spots).

Once this activity clears the forecast area to the southeast,
the rest of the evening/overnight hours are expected to be
dry. Winds look to turn back to the light/variable side...and
sky cover also diminishes. Models/guidance aren't socking in the
area with dense fog late tonight, but wouldn't be too surprised
to at least see some patchy light fog develop with the rain
moving through. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the
low-mid 60s for most locations.

Thursday on into early next week...

Didn't focus a lot of time on the mid-longer term period of the
forecast with ongoing concerns...but overall it's a dry one. In
the upper levels, models are in pretty good agreement that
once today's trough axis slides east of the Plains, the main
area of high pressure gradually slides back west...with ridging
more solidly in place/extending through the western CONUS by
Friday, and little change through the weekend. As we get into
Monday/Tuesday, models suggesting that ridging getting dampened
a bit, and slides to the east...helping bring a warmer airmass
into the area. High temps Thursday through Saturday are in the
low-mid 90s for most spots, but as we get into Sunday-Monday,
temps (and heat index values) are inching up. Highs Sun-Mon
reach into the mid 90s-near 100.

Have some low confidence 20 percent storm chances Monday night,
with a better chance for storms (some 30-40 percent chances)
Tuesday evening-night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are currently forecast, with the main concern
for this TAF period being with the passage of a sfc frontal
boundary and accompanying thunderstorm chances. The overall best
chances for storms affecting the terminal areas looks to come
mid-late afternoon, with activity then focusing further south.
Confidence in winds through the rest of the daytime hours is not
high. Currently, overall winds are on the lighter/variable
side, but as this activity approaches, there will be increasing
potential for gustier winds from varying directions...and have
that potential included in a TEMPO group. Once the main swath of
activity pushes south of the terminal areas, winds are expected
to be generally northerly to variable the rest of the period,
with speeds topping out in the 10-15 MPH range.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-063-064-
     075>077-084-085.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-
     087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-017.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to make their way east across the
outlook area this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms remain a possibility, with the primary threats
being large hail near the size of golf balls and wind gusts near
70 mph.

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM this
evening for Jewell, Osborne and Mitchell counties in Kansas,
along with Nuckolls and Thayer counties in Nebraska. A Heat
Advisory is also in effect this afternoon for counties just to the
north and west of the warning. However, cooler weather will
gradually work into the area from northwest to southeast through
the day behind a cold front. Please refer to the warning and
advisory statements for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hotter temperatures return to the outlook area Monday and Tuesday,
with heat index values back up to around 100 to 105 degrees mainly
for areas along and south of Highway 6 and into north central
Kansas.

Spotty thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Monday night
through Tuesday night.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Rosemont          40.25N 98.33W
07/31/2024                   Webster            NE   Public

            Large tree limbs down on property. Hail as
            well but exact size not known. Very heavy
            rain.

&&

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
355 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSE Grafton           40.60N 97.70W
07/31/2024  M57 MPH          Fillmore           NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
357 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Hail             Beaver City             40.14N 99.83W
07/31/2024  E1.00 Inch       Furnas             NE   Public

            Facebook photo of hail right at quarter
            size.

&&

ADP