Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
602 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for
  portions of central Nebraska this evening. Main timeframe is
  5pm to midnight.

- Only low chances for thunderstorms (10-20%) Saturday through
  Tuesday. Rain/t-storm chances increase again mid to late next
  week.

- Heat returns early next week. High temperatures around 100
  degrees are expected on Monday, and heat index values may
  exceed 105 degrees in some spots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

As of 3pm, radar shows a few thunderstorms already developing
over SW Nebraska, moving northeast. The expectation is that this
will continue to develop into a few clusters, impacting areas
north of Highway 6, mainly in the 5pm to midnight timeframe.
Convective parameters are not "off the charts" by any means, but
are at least marginally supportive of some supercell features
(1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 35kt effective shear). Hail and
wind will be the main threats, but some localized flooding is
also possible. The 18Z HRRR shows some isolated maxima of 3.00"
of rain along the Hwy 92 area, but that is certainly on the
higher end compared to the 12Z HREF.

Northwesterly winds arrive on Saturday as a cold front moves
through the area. There is a low chance for a few showers or
storms to redevelop in our southeastern zones along this front,
but near-term models largely keep this to safely our southeast.

For many areas, tomorrow is expected to be the coolest day
through next week. Upper level riding moves into the area early
next week, allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s on
Sunday, and to near 100 degrees on Monday. There are low chances
for thunderstorms each of these days, but midlevel capping will
keep storms pretty isolated.

A series of upper shortwaves will break down the ridge and bring
us increasing thunderstorm chances from the middle to end of
next week. Temperatures return closer to climatology (upper 80s
and low 90s) for Wednesday/Thursday. Thursday through Friday
appears to be the next best chance for rain for most of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Watching current radar trends along with HRRR output, decided to
shrink the VCTS timing for GRI as HRRR doesn't bring the current
convection near GRI until 03z. There are a few pop-up showers
ahead of the convection that will have to be watched, otherwise
3-7z is best chance to see something. EAR I shrank the backside
by an hour as convection looks to be east of the TAF site by
then.21z HRRR generally keeps the convection north of I-80 this
evening. Southerly winds should taper off this evening and will
pickup and become NW around mid-day tomorrow as a cold front
will move through the area. The models are hinting at a MVFR
ceiling tomorrow morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
232 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
232 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon through this evening, mainly near and north of Highway 6
in central Nebraska. A few of these storms may become severe,
with hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 MPH. Heavy
rain could also lead to localized flooding. The main timeframe for
severe weather is between 5pm and midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There are low chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday,
Thunderstorm chances then increase Wednesday and Thursday.

Warmer temperatures return next week. Heat index values of 100 to
105 degrees are expected for portions of the area on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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