Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
  evening, particularly for areas from Ord to Hebron. Damaging
  winds will be the main threat; although, an isolated tornado
  or large hail will be possible near the boundary.

- After high temperatures in the 90s to around 105 and Heat
  Advisories the past two days, a welcome cool down will arrive
  Wednesday.

- A cold front will move across the region Thursday and Friday,
  bringing some cooler temperatures to the area in time for the
  weekend. Additional chances for thunderstorms (40-60%) will
  arrive on Thursday, a few of which may become strong to
  severe. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  through Sunday.

- Another warm up is expected as CPC outlooks show the potential
  for above normal temperatures to return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Afternoon high temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-90s to
around 102 degrees across the region this afternoon, with the
warmest temperatures being in areas along and south of the Kansas-
Nebraska border.  Heat index values as high as 107 degrees will be
possible, particularly for the southern part of the area.  A Heat
Advisory remains in effect through 7PM this evening for north
central Kansas, and Nuckolls and Thayer counties in south central
Nebraska.

A boundary is currently in place, extending from the Black Hills and
Pine Ridge, southeast to around Mahoney State Park in eastern
Nebraska.  Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field in place along
and north of the boundary.  A few thunderstorms may develop along
the boundary this afternoon; however, the better chances for storms
will be this evening into tonight.  This is a conditional situation
with concern about cap strength and whether it will be able to
break.  Should the cap not break, convection is expected to be
limited.  However, should it break, we are looking at the potential
for rapid storm development and strengthening.  SBCAPE and MLCAPE
values of 3000+ J/kg, approaching 1800+ J/kg, and steep lapse rates
are expected.  Additionally, soundings are showing the possibility
of an inverted-V type situation, which would increase the risk for
strong and gusty winds.  Right now, the main concern with any storms
that are able to develop will be damaging winds, although an
isolated hail threat and tornado risk are not out of the question
for the northeastern part of the area along the boundary.

Cooler air pushes in Wednesday behind the cold front, with
temperatures around 10 degrees cooler in several locations. Expected
highs will range from the mid-80s toward Ord and I-80, to the upper
80s along the Kansas-Nebraska border, and the low 90s in north
central Kansas.  High pressure will be in place over the Desert
Southwest, with northwest flow over the Central High Plains.

Heading into Thursday, the ridge will push to the east, with an
upper trough coming over the PACNW.  A mid-level trough is expected
to develop on the lee side of the Rockies late Wednesday night into
the day on Thursday, progressing to the east during the day.  This
will be our next best chance for severe storms across the Hastings
area of responsibility.  Right now, the entire area has been
outlooked in a Marginal Risk by the Storm Prediction Center.  Right
now, the primary severe weather threat would be gusty winds.  An
isolated hail or tornado risk along the front cannot be entirely
ruled out at this time.  High temperatures will feel like a welcome
relief for many, ranging from the upper 70s from Ord to Genoa, to
the low/mid-80s from Lexington to Hebron and the Tri-Cities.  Mid to
upper 80s are expected for areas from Cambridge to Beloit and areas
south.  Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s.

Friday brings a return of the heat for many as we come under
southwest flow.  Most areas will return to the upper 80s or the 90s.
 The upper trough from over the PACNW will track across Big Sky
Country (Montana) and across the Dakotas on Friday and Saturday.  A
cold front will slip into the region Friday and Saturday.  This will
give us another chance for showers and thunderstorms, and some
cooler air.  Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 70s
in the north to the mid-80s in the south.  Enjoy the cooler
temperatures, because they will not last.

A ridge moves over the region, with high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS.  The 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, and 3-4 Week
temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are showing
the possibility of some above normal temperatures for the end of the
forecast period and into the longer range forecast.  Normal highs
are typically in the mid-80s with lows in the upper 50s to
mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is a slight chance of low ceilings beginning around 06z
and continuing until around 12z but confidence is low at this
point. Winds will transition this evening from the south to the
northeast then north. Winds may briefly become gusty out of the
north around 06z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Schuldt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
261200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7PM across our north
central Kansas counties, in addition to Nuckolls and Thayer
counties in south central Nebraska. Heat index values up to 107
degrees are expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. A few of these could be severe with wind gusts up to
60 MPH, hail to the size of golfballs, and an isolated tornado
can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There are additional periodic thunderstorm chances across much of
the outlook area from Wednesday night through Sunday. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the
National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

NEZ039-040-046-260500-
Valley NE-Greeley NE-Sherman NE-
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GREELEY...VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Page to 12 miles northwest of Bartlett to
near Comstock to near Broken Bow. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Elyria and Fort Hartsuff State Park around 1125 PM CDT.
  Ord around 1130 PM CDT.
  Arcadia around 1135 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include North Loup,
Greeley, Spalding, Greeley Center and Scotia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9829 4140 9830 4139 9874 4134 9875
      4112 9921 4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 286DEG 51KT 4233 9842 4201 9872 4162 9928 4143
9970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels

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