Tornado Warning 1, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
209 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Pattern change starts today as a cold front brings showers and
  thunderstorms with eastern zones seeing the greatest risk of a
  mixed severe hail/wind threat.

- Cooler temperatures begin Sunday, with the coldest readings
  occurring on Monday and Tuesday.

- More widespread rain moves in during Monday and Tuesday.

- Warming trend later this week, but things remain unsettled with
  daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Today the first Pacific Northwest Trough will begin to settle
into the area driving a cold front ahead of it. This will not only
be the beginning of a pattern change to below average and wetter
conditions, but this front will be the focusing mechanism for another
round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. SPC has the eastern
half of our CWA, roughly east of a line from Glentana to Winnett in
a slight risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging
winds the main threat. The supportive dynamics for any rotation
within a supercell looks to increase eastward, with the primary
focus of a tornadic concern in North Dakota. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out before crossing the North Dakota border late
this afternoon/evening.

Sunday will be cooler behind the front with a little break in the
action overall before a stronger Pacific trough moves in Monday
bringing widespread rain and even cooler temperatures at 10-20
degrees below mid June averages for both Monday and Tuesday.  A
warming trend begins Wednesday with temperatures warming close to
late June averages by the end of the week. Still unsettled with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms continuing to be a
possibility.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:

++ Discussion regarding this afternoon ++

This morning's shower/thunderstorm activity has stabilized the
lower atmosphere across many places north of the Missouri River.
Since those showers have passed, ample sunshine has return for
most locations south of the Missouri. This will help recharge
southern zones with the sufficient instability to support stronger
updrafts, with sufficient shear to sustain upscale growth and
organized convection. At 20Z, a special upper air launch will give
us and the SPC a better idea of how the instability has evolved
since the return of sunshine, and consequently, whether the threat
for significant hail/severe winds remains as discussed from this
morning and/or increased/decreased.

++++
There is a moderate to high (50-90%) probability for a wetting
rain (0.10") across much of the region with today's system with
the highest chances in the northeast corner of the state.
Low to moderate probability (25-60%) of 0.25". QPF's have trended
downward some, especially in the southeastern zones.

For the Monday/Wednesday AM system, QPF amounts have trended
downward but are higher than today's system, with a probability
around 70-80% for at least 0.25", 40-60% for 0.50", and 10-35%
for 1".

Confidence is lower Wednesday onward on shower and thunderstorm
chances and timing as models start diverging in that time period.

-Bernhart/Enriquez

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, Brief MVFR possible near storms.

DISCUSSION: A round of showers and thunderstorms moves through the
region this afternoon and into tonight. Main threat will be
squally conditions in and near organized storms, including severe
outflows and large hail.

WIND: After the passage of storms, winds will be more
northwesterly at 15-25 kts. Sunday morning, winds will be more
westerly at 20-30 kts gusting up to 40 kts.

-Bernhart/Enriquez

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
317 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

MTZ016-021-022-060-152215-
Petroleum MT-Garfield MT-Southwest Phillips MT-
Central and Southeast Phillips MT-
317 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Phillips, northern Petroleum and west central Garfield Counties
through 415 PM MDT
...

At 316 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 29 miles west of Zortman to 19 miles southwest
of Hays to 17 miles east of Winifred to near Roy to 18 miles
northeast of Lewistown. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zortman, Dodson, Fourchette, U L Bend Rec Area, Crooked Creek Rec
Area, Phillips, Wagner, Landusky, and Valentine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4792 10889 4792 10863 4799 10861 4798 10844
      4845 10841 4844 10840 4843 10835 4851 10834
      4853 10798 4784 10784 4738 10788 4728 10813
      4723 10872 4730 10859 4732 10831 4758 10831
      4757 10833 4765 10877 4773 10889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 267DEG 37KT 4796 10915 4781 10897 4761 10900
4737 10901 4724 10913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Enriquez

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