Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
217 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through Friday, when
  stronger storms and a more widespread wetting rain is expected.

- A few isolated severe cells Friday late afternoon and evening
  are possible, with wind and hail the primary threats.

- A slow warm up is expected through Sunday when some 90s for
  highs likely appear.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are increasing
in coverage this afternoon and looking to be mainly south of the
Missouri River. SPC's HREF is pointing toward some gusty winds
with these cells upward of 50 mph by 6pm this evening amidst
increased updraft helicity, but isolated and focused to the
southwest over higher terrain.

However, a shortwave arriving Friday afternoon does look like it
has the chance for a isolated severe cell or two with about 1000
J/kg CAPE, bulk shear around 40-50 kts, and precipitable water
over 1 inch. The one problem with this environment appearing in forecast
soundings and that is a cooler than average surface layer with
cloud cover, which will keep most convection elevated rather than
surface based. This may prevent strong winds initially. That being
said, CAMs point towards strong cells embedded in light shower
activity which could form their own environments and CAMs also
point towards a couple 50-65 mph gusts that could occur with the
strongest cells. The chance of at least one case of severe weather
in the GGW CWA Friday late afternoon and early evening is about
60%, with the chance of a single point getting hit by it less than
10%. Rain totals with this passage vary from a tenth to a half
inch over the CWA, with locally higher amounts where storms train.
Afterward, a ridging pattern will favor seasonably warm and drier
conditions from Sunday into the middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:
There is high confidence (60-80%) in general thunder with minimal
chances (10%) for severe weather at a particular point Friday
afternoon and evening. Confidence is medium to high for the
general conditions remaining slightly warmer and drier than normal
through much of next week.

-Zanker/GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: SCT/BKN mid level cumulus is developing into
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening, especially south of the Missouri River. Mainly KSDY
and KGDV will be impacted with medium (40%) confidence for brief
MVFR conditions. More widespread shower activity with embedded
stronger storms arrive after 18Z Friday.

SFC WIND: Calming to less than 10 kts tonight, then east around 10
kts Friday afternoon. Expect gusty and erratic winds near any
thunderstorm.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
526 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MTZ022-026-210030-
Garfield MT-Prairie MT-
526 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Garfield and west central Prairie Counties through 630 PM MDT
...

At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Hillside, or 36 miles northwest of Miles City, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mccloud and Crow Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4683 10583 4686 10584 4686 10609 4685 10609
      4685 10631 4694 10630 4699 10553 4683 10562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 279DEG 22KT 4688 10618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mickelson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
606 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MTZ016-210115-
Central and Southeast Phillips MT-
606 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Phillips
County through 715 PM MDT
...

At 606 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Belknap, or 28 miles southeast of Chinook, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Malta, Dodson, and Wagner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4845 10841 4844 10840 4844 10836 4843 10837
      4843 10835 4852 10835 4848 10783 4810 10798
      4822 10841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 288DEG 23KT 4841 10866

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mickelson

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