Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

651 
WWUS74 KFWD 111206
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

TXZ146>148-158>162-174-175-111900-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FG.Y.0003.240111T1206Z-240111T1600Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-Leon-
Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, 
Palestine, Killeen, Temple, Fort Cavazos, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, 
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, 
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
606 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility 1/4 mile or less
  at times. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 30 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Navarro, Freestone, Anderson, Bell, McLennan, Falls, 
  Limestone, Leon, Milam and Robertson Counties.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 10 AM CST this 
  morning. For the Wind Advisory, from midnight tonight to noon 
  CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the
  wind. Driving on area roadways may become difficult, especially
  for high-profile vehicles. Poor driving conditions are expected
  due to reduced visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes. Residents may 
wish to take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and 
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the 
strong winds.

A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less
than one quarter mile. If driving, slow down, use your low-beam
headlights, and leave plenty of distance between you and the
vehicle ahead of you.

&&

$$

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>145-156-157-111900-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Lampasas-Coryell-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Lampasas, 
Copperas Cove, and Gatesville
606 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of North and Central Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the 
  wind. Driving on area roadways may become difficult, 
  especially for high-profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes. Residents may 
wish to take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and 
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the 
strong winds.

&&

$$

Barnes

988 
WWUS74 KFWD 111602
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1002 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

TXZ146>148-158>162-174-175-120000-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FG.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240111T1600Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-Leon-
Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, 
Palestine, Killeen, Temple, Fort Cavazos, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, 
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, 
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
1002 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and East Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the 
  wind. Driving on area roadways may become difficult, 
  especially for high-profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>145-156-157-120000-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Lampasas-Coryell-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Lampasas, 
Copperas Cove, and Gatesville
1002 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of North Central and Northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the 
  wind. Driving on area roadways may become difficult, 
  especially for high-profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

787 
WWUS74 KFWD 112350
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-120700-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, 
Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, 
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Cavazos, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, 
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, 
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
550 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...All of North and Central Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the 
  wind. Driving on area roadways may become difficult, 
  especially for high-profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

745 
WWUS74 KFWD 120651
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121800-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240112T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, 
Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, 
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Cavazos, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, 
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, 
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
1251 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...North and Central Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the
  wind. Driving on area roadways may become difficult, especially 
  for high-profile vehicles driving on north-south roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to
30 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should
use extra caution when venturing onto area lakes.  Residents may
wish to take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and
other lightweight outdoor objects that may be blown around in the
strong winds.

&&

$$

280 
WWUS74 KFWD 121759
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1159 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121900-
/O.EXP.KFWD.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240112T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, 
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, 
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, 
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, 
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, 
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, 
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, 
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, 
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, 
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, 
Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, 
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Cavazos, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, 
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, 
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
1159 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

Wind speeds will continue to decrease through the afternoon and
evening, therefore the Wind Advisory is allowed to expired at noon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1247 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

A weak frontal boundary has made its way into North Texas but
will become increasingly diffuse as it slowly moves south until
it eventually washes out entirely. Quiet weather will continue
for the remainder of the night as temperatures fall into the mid
30s across North Texas to mid 40s in Central Texas. Patchy fog is
expected to develop in portions of Central/East Texas near
daybreak this morning. Dense fog will be possible in some areas,
with visibilities dropping to 1/4 mile or less at times. As
surface heating promotes vertical mixing and surface wind speeds
increase, any fog should quickly dissipate by mid morning.

Breezy winds will continue through the afternoon ahead of our next
system progged to arrive this evening. Today will be the warmest
day for the next week, with afternoon temperatures climbing into
the mid 60s to low 70s. Be sure to enjoy the pleasant weather
while you can! By late this afternoon, a few warm advection
showers may develop east of I-35 as large scale lift overspreads
the area, but the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this evening with the arrival of a
strong cold front.

Showers and storms will develop somewhere near or just east of the
I-35 corridor close to midnight Thursday night as a cold front
enters our western zones. This activity should quickly grow
upscale into a fairly continuous (though narrow) line of storms as
it moves east. Latest hi-res guidance continues to support the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern North
and Central Texas late Thursday night into early Friday morning;
however, there are still discrepancies in how much instability
will be present, which is largely tied to the moisture return
ahead of this system. At this moment, instability will likely
range from 500-1000 J/kg across the east. However, if the HRRR
verifies and we see a more substantial increase in low-level
moisture this afternoon and evening, instability will be higher
and convective development will likely be a bit more robust. This
solution would likely result in a slightly greater chance of
severe storms. The primary hazards tonight will be hail and
damaging winds. A low tornado threat can't be ruled out at this
time, as dew points will be in the upper 50s or even low 60s. Make
sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings before heading to
bed tonight.

All showers and storms will exit to the east early Friday morning,
with very windy conditions overspreading the region behind the
cold front. Wind speeds will increase to 25-35 mph with wind gusts
between 40-45 mph. There will be a 10% chance for wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph. A Wind Advisory will certainly be needed
Thursday night into Friday, and this will be ironed out sometime
tonight or later today. Otherwise, strong northwest winds will
usher much colder air into the region, with wind chills dropping
into the teens to mid 20s Friday morning. Areas along the Red
River will likely see wind chills dip into the single digits. High
temperatures will be in the 40s for most areas Friday afternoon,
but brisk winds will keep wind chills in the 30s and 40s
throughout the day across the region.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 401 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Currently the upper-level support for our Thursday-Friday storm
system is over the PACNW, and will swing down into the Desert
Southwest by Thursday afternoon. By the start of the long term
period (Thursday evening), the shortwave will move through the
Panhandles, with forcing for ascent spreading across the region.
Warm air advection induced convection will be possible across the
eastern half of the region late Thursday ahead of the front. The
front is expected to break through our northwestern counties
around midnight and will continue to trek south/southeast.
Additional showers and storms will be possible overnight as
lift/moisture/instability are able to kick up a line of convection
along the boundary near the I-35 corridor. The parameter space in
forecast soundings show enough instability and shear to support
strong to severe storms for areas near and east of I-35 Thursday
night into Friday. Some surface-based instability and steep lapse
rates will result in the potential for gusty winds and hail in the
more robust storms. This will be a later evening/overnight
system, so make sure to have your plans in place beforehand.

On the back end of the shortwave, wrap-around moisture is expected
to overspread North and Central Texas. This should generally bring
more low cloud cover mainly to North Texas, and keep any additional
precipitation of the winter variety to our north in Oklahoma.
However, a minority of model guidance does output some echoes of
light wintry precip across the Red River Valley Friday morning. As
we expect this to remain just to our north, have continued to keep
any mention of winter precip out of our area. We will need to watch
this over the next 24 hours as short-term high resolution
guidance gets hold of it. If the low digs further south, we may
have to contend with some light early weekend snow across our far
northern zones. Post-FROPA, strong and gusty winds around 25-35
mph and gusts up to 40-45 mph are expected Friday morning and
afternoon. These sustained winds exceed Wind Advisory criteria,
and this product will likely need to be issued in upcoming
forecast updates. Make sure to batten down the hatches and secure
or bring in outdoor items and trash cans to avoid incurring loss.
By early Friday evening winds will have calmed down to much more
modest speeds to end out the week.

Our next system will make its appearance over the latter half of the
weekend, bringing a much more wintry feel to the region. A strong
Arctic cold front will barrel through North and Central Texas over
the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main change with this
forecast update is that the front has sped up a bit with new model
guidance, and deterministic guidance is more in agreement as
compared to yesterday. With the front moving in earlier, areas near
the Red River may see their high temperature early in the day. High
temperatures on Sunday will have quite a gradient, with near-to-
below freezing temperatures in the northwest compared to low 50s
in the far southern zones.

Guidance has also made the case for a more western extent of
precipitation chances on Sunday, though they are very different in
terms of their intensity. The GFS is still quite calm compared to
the "fire and brimstone" ECMWF, and this has been the trend for the
last day or so. Have opted to keep the locations of rain chances
fairly similar to the previous forecast to take an "in the
middle" stance for the continued uncertainty. More confidence is
placed in the northeastern zones, where deterministic and ensemble
guidance has shown a more consistent signal and higher probabilities.
Nonetheless, areas near and east of I-35 have a low chance (20-30%)
of observing a wintry mix of precipitation Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning. We'll continue to monitor incoming model guidance
over the coming days and refine details when possible.

The current timeline will bring an end to wintry precip by Monday
afternoon as much drier air continues to surge into the region.
What will be left is the bitter cold that will plague the region
Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Overnight temperatures on both
Sunday and Monday night will bottom out in the single digits and
teens, and most, if not all, of the region look to stay below
freezing on Monday. Even though this is still a handful of days
out, cold weather preparations need to be undertaken now. Cover
outdoor pipes and faucets to prevent breaks and leaks, cover/bring
in susceptible plants, bring in furry friends, and check on your
more vulnerable members of society.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A weak cold front may result in a brief north wind shift across
D10 over the next few hours; however, wind speeds will remain at
or below 5 knots. Patchy fog and low ceilings are expected to
develop across eastern North and Central Texas around 12Z this
morning but should remain well east of all terminals. The main
exception is KACT where ceilings/fog may get close, but chances
of seeing reduced cigs/visibilities remain low at this time.
However, we'll continue to assess the potential over the next few
hours. Any ceilings/fog should dissipate by 15-16Z.

Winds will increase out of the south later this morning,
eventually becoming breezy/gusty around midday with wind speeds
near 15 knots and gusts around 20-25 knots. Late tonight
(currently in the extended DFW TAF), breezy south winds will
shift out of the west ahead of an approaching cold front,
resulting in moderate crosswinds on N-S runways. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop, but the best convective potential is
east of the I-35 corridor at this time. For now, VCSH was
introduced to the DFW TAF from 06-10Z, but this may need some
adjusting over the next few issuances. A strong cold front will
bring a northwest wind shift beginning around 09-10Z for D10 and
10-11Z for KACT, with wind speeds increasing to 25-30 knots and
gusts near 40-45 knots.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  68  31  47  32 /   0   0  30   0   0
Waco                39  69  34  50  31 /   0   0  40   0   0
Paris               34  65  28  44  25 /   0  10  70   0   0
Denton              36  67  26  46  27 /   0   0  20   0   0
McKinney            36  66  29  45  28 /   0   0  40   0   0
Dallas              38  68  30  47  32 /   0   0  40   0   0
Terrell             37  66  31  45  28 /   0   5  60   0   0
Corsicana           42  70  36  49  31 /   0   5  60   0   0
Temple              40  71  36  52  29 /   0   0  40   0   0
Mineral Wells       35  72  29  49  28 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1247 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-120015-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1247 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Patchy fog is likely east of the I-35 corridor late tonight into
early Thursday morning. Dense fog will be possible in some areas,
with visibilities falling to a quarter of a mile or less at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorm chances return to areas along and east of I-35 Thursday
night. A few strong to severe storms containing hail and gusty winds
are possible. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Exceptionally cold temperatures are forecast from Sunday night
through Tuesday. Wind chill values could fall below zero at times,
with temperatures in the teens and single digits both Sunday night
and Monday night. There is also a slight chance of a wintry mix
mainly east of Interstate 35 Sunday night into Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.