Tornado Warning 59, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few strong to severe storms are expected
  through this evening, generally across Central and East Texas.

- Wednesday (Christmas Day) will be storm-free, but storm chances
  return on Thursday. Some strong to severe storms will be
  possible across portions of Central and East Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1150 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/
/This afternoon through Wednesday night/

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany a slow moving
cold front and passing shortwave through tonight. The storms this
morning have stayed below severe limits but the slow movement and
storm training has resulted in localized flooding. These trends
will continue as the storms move slowly southeast. There may be an
uptick in storm intensity as storms move into Central Texas this
afternoon/evening with a threat for marginally severe hail and
gusty winds along with a continued threat for localized flooding.
The axis of the shortwave will not exit the region until Christmas
morning, therefore, we will maintain PoPs in the southeast zones
through 12Z.

Subsidence on the back side of the exiting shortwave will keep
Christmas Day rain-free. However, low level moisture will not get
scoured out behind the front so clouds will linger through the
morning with only some brief scattering in the afternoon. Patchy
post-frontal drizzle will also be possible, especially across the
eastern half of the forecast area.

Return flow will increase Wednesday night in response to another
deep shortwave approaching from the west. Rain/storms associated
with this system will not begin until Thursday, but extensive low
clouds will fill back in overnight along with a chance for patchy
drizzle.

Warm air advection ahead of the front will keep temperatures mild
this afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The only
exception will be across the northwest zones where weak cold air
advection will keep afternoon temperatures in the lower 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The long term forecast, as detailed in the discussion below, has
not changed much, with our next storm chances expected Thursday.
It still appears that some strong to severe storms will be
possible, with the best chances across Central and East Texas.
Hail and gusty winds will be the primary hazards.

Otherwise, high temperatures will remain generally above normal
Thursday through Monday, with 60s and lower 70s each day. A
stronger cold front is slated to move across the region for the
last day of 2024, knocking high temperatures back closer to
seasonal normals. Overnight lows will stay generally in the 40s
Thursday night through the remainder of the year, but some spots
may approach freezing to start the New Year.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unsettled weather will continue into the last weekend of December
with rain-free and unseasonably warm weather for the final days
of 2024.

The next storm system, currently approaching the West Coast, will
become a closed low as it swings through the Southern Plains
Thursday and Thursday night. This will force a dryline to surge
into the region, ahead of which rapid moist advection will send
dew points above 60F. Convection may be ongoing along the boundary
within our western zones during the morning hours. Dense cloud
cover and warm advection showers could disrupt the destabilization
process across Central and East Texas, but considerable shear may
help updrafts overcome this limitation. Although the convective
activity will likely be quasi-linear, individual supercells may
initially pose a hail threat before a more congealed line becomes
primarily a damaging wind concern. Low LCLs may enhance the
potential for tornadoes with both the individual cells and with
bowing segments within the more coherent line as shear profiles
favor the potential for QLCS spin-ups. However, severe weather
will be more likely east of our area as the complex persists into
the evening hours.

Our parade of frontal boundaries will continue into the weekend,
after which our rain chances will finally come to an end. Westerly
winds will offset any cold advection, and Saturday's temperatures
will match Friday's. A warming trend will push temperatures into
the 70s regionwide by Monday before the next cold front arrives.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1150 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
numerous thunderstorms this afternoon followed by the return of
IFR ceilings tonight/Wednesday morning.

Storms will be ongoing at the Metroplex TAF sites to start the
TAF package but will gradually shift to the southeast through the
afternoon. Most of the storms will exit the Metroplex TAF sites
between 19Z and 20Z, but showers with a few embedded storms will
linger through the afternoon with the upper trough still west of
the region. The best window of time for Waco to see storms will be
between 20Z and 00Z, with lingering light showers possible
through the evening.

Post-frontal stratus will linger across the entire region
overnight with IFR to low end MVFR ceilings and patchy drizzle
expected. VFR will likely not return to any of the TAF sites until
early afternoon Christmas Day.

The front is currently on the doorstep of the Metroplex TAF sites
so we will prevail a west/northwest wind to start the TAF package
and continue with northwest to north winds through Christmas
morning. The wind shift to northwest at Waco will occur closer to
22/23Z. Wind speeds will be generally below 12 knots except in and
near thunderstorms.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  61  50  63  47 /  40   0   5  70  20
Waco                53  63  51  66  46 /  60   0   5  60  20
Paris               53  62  53  63  47 /  70  10   5  70  50
Denton              48  59  46  61  42 /  30   0   5  70  20
McKinney            50  60  49  62  44 /  50   5   5  70  30
Dallas              52  62  51  63  47 /  50   0   5  70  30
Terrell             53  62  52  64  46 /  70   5   5  70  40
Corsicana           55  64  54  67  48 /  80   5   5  70  40
Temple              50  65  51  69  45 /  60   0   0  60  20
Mineral Wells       48  62  46  64  43 /  20   0   5  60  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
249 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
249 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. A few
of these storms will be strong to marginally severe with gusty winds
and hail, especially across Central Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Thunderstorm chances will return Thursday. Some of the storms could
be severe, particularly across Central and East Texas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

TXZ133-134-145-242030-
Ellis TX-Hill TX-Johnson TX-
144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Johnson, north central Hill and west central Ellis Counties through
230 PM CST...

At 144 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grandview, or 11 miles south of Alvarado, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maypearl around 200 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Forreston and Five
Points.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35W between mile markers 9 and 18.
 Interstate 35E between mile markers 387 and 402.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 9722 3230 9722 3243 9685 3223 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 253DEG 15KT 3225 9715

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Stalley

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
209 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

TXZ144-242045-
Bosque TX-
209 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bosque
County through 245 PM CST...

At 209 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meridian State Park, or 7 miles west of Clifton, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clifton around 215 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Womack, Lakewood
Harbor, Norse, Lakeside Village, and Cedar Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 9749 3201 9747 3202 9744 3203 9743
      3199 9741 3198 9738 3197 9738 3193 9744
      3191 9741 3190 9737 3189 9737 3189 9738
      3187 9739 3184 9733 3173 9771 3188 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 246DEG 22KT 3181 9770

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Stalley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
247 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

TXZ121-134-242130-
Ellis TX-Kaufman TX-
247 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kaufman
and northeastern Ellis Counties through 330 PM CST...

At 247 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Palmer, or near Ennis, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ennis around 250 PM CST.
  Cottonwood around 305 PM CST.
  Grays Prairie around 315 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Crisp, Telico, Stubbs,
Rosser, Lively, Bristol, Garrett, Trumbull, Oak Grove, and Scurry.

This includes Interstate 45 between mile markers 252 and 264.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9622 3232 9669 3250 9674 3255 9652
      3261 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 250DEG 22KT 3243 9663

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Stalley

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