Tornado Warning 23, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Through Monday/

The shortwave responsible for last night's storms has exited to
the northeast, but a trailing disturbance is in the process of
generating one last round of convection as it moves east across
the region. Showers and storms should continue to increase in
coverage along and immediately east of the I-35 corridor through
the afternoon. Activity will work its way slowly east through the
afternoon and evening, creating mainly a threat for heavy rain and
flooding. The slow eastward progression of the developing storms will
allow for a southwest-northeast training of showers and
thunderstorms, which will enhance the threat for flash flooding
wherever the training convection occurs. The Flood Watch will
hence continue through 7 PM for areas along and east of I-35.

There is also a threat for severe storms, though morning
convection and the resulting cloud cover may mitigate the overall
severe potential. The highest severe threat will be confined to
the eastern-most counties where the best destabilization will
occur later this afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be
possible in any storm which attains severe thresholds.

Showers and storms will exit it the east (along with the
shortwave) overnight, leaving clearing skies and light winds in
its wake. Lingering moisture, light winds and mostly clear skies
will result in patchy fog formation across a good portion of the
forecast area. If skies clear earlier than forecast, dense fog may
become a concern, but at this time will keep the visibility
forecasts at or above one mile and monitor satellite and METAR
trends tonight. Monday should be a warm but overall quiet day,
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak
disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the
dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located
over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take
place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks
to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two
may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the
trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the
dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level
support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to
scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region
Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may
enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active
sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat
will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a
lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains
Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow
upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an
attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as
activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with
precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the
front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on
Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal
day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly
increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again
become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a
warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is
uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the
warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue
into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start
the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms developing across Central Texas will spread north,
affecting parts of the DFW Metroplex early to mid afternoon. Will
keep VCTS at all TAF locations through 22Z. KACT will likely need
a TEMPO for TS for a few hours based on radar trends. Convection
will exit to the east later this afternoon and this evening.
Light winds and clearing skies will lead to fog or LIFR cig
formation overnight/Monday morning, and have opted for a TEMPO
LIFR conditions at all airports from 11Z-15Z Monday. Conditions
will improve after 15Z, followed by VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather for the rest of the forecast period.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  86  65  85  70 /  10   0   0   5  20
Waco                65  86  64  83  69 /  20   0   5  10  10
Paris               63  82  60  83  66 /  60   5   0  10  10
Denton              62  85  62  84  67 /   5   0   0   5  30
McKinney            62  84  62  83  68 /  20   5   0  10  20
Dallas              66  86  64  85  69 /  10   0   0  10  20
Terrell             62  84  62  84  68 /  40   0   0  10  10
Corsicana           65  86  64  85  69 /  50   0   0  20  10
Temple              65  86  64  84  69 /  20   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       60  86  62  86  68 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
122 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms remain possible along and east of I-35 this afternoon.
Any storms that develop this afternoon could be severe with damaging
winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Heavy rain will lead to flooding
in some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
After a break in thunderstorm activity on Monday, occasional storm
chances will resume Tuesday and continue through next weekend. A few
thunderstorms could be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Timely reports of severe weather and flooding will be appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1043 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NW Waco               31.61N 97.23W
04/28/2024  M64 MPH          McLennan           TX   ASOS

            64 MPH wind gust measured at Waco Regional
            Airport on back edge of dissipating
            thunderstorms.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1102 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Woodway           31.50N 97.25W
04/28/2024  M70 MPH          McLennan           TX   Broadcast Media

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1143 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     Tornado          6 SSW Gholson           31.63N 97.26W
04/26/2024                   McLennan           TX   NWS Storm Survey

            A brief EF-0 tornado occurred along Wisdom
            Ct west of Waco. Fences were damaged and
            large tree limbs were broken. Maximum
            estimated winds were 80 mph.

1226 PM     Tornado          6 S Gholson             31.63N 97.25W
04/26/2024                   McLennan           TX   NWS Storm Survey

            A second tornado from the same supercell
            occurred west of Waco damaging neighborhoods
            on either side of Wortham Bend Road near
            China Spring Rd. Damage in these
            neighborhoods consisted of damaged trees,
            downed fences, broken windows, and mostly
            minor roof damage. One home lost most of the
            front part of its roof, and a few homes were
            impaled with flying fence panels. This
            tornado was rated an EF-1 with maximum
            estimated winds of 95 mph.

1248 PM     Tornado          3 SE West               31.78N 97.05W
04/26/2024                   McLennan           TX   NWS Storm Survey

            Another tornado developed north of Tours,
            just west of Berger Road. This tornado
            initially damaged trees and a shed, but
            strengthened as it crossed Czech Hall Road.
            The tornado hit a property on County Line
            Road causing EF-2 damage to a barn and a
            shop on the property. The tornado scattered
            heavy farm material into the field to the
            east. The tornado continued into Hill County
            crossing CR 3238 where an eye witness
            reported it dissipated before developing the
            next tornado. Maximum estimated winds were
            110 to 115 mph.

1248 PM     Tornado          3 SSE West              31.76N 97.07W
04/26/2024                   McLennan           TX   NWS Storm Survey

            A brief, EF-0 tornado damaged trees west of
            Heritage Pkwy and south of Easy Rd northwest
            of Tours. Maximum estimated winds were 75
            mph.

0106 PM     Tornado          3 SW Penelope           31.83N 96.97W
04/26/2024                   Hill               TX   NWS Storm Survey

            The same supercell produced another brief,
            EF-1 tornado, based on eye witness accounts,
            on either side of FM 339 southwest of
            Penelope. The tornado formed in the field
            just east of the road, hitting a residence
            and dissipating soon afterwards. Two houses
            were damaged: One had metal panels peeled
            off the roof, and the home shifted off its
            cinder blocks about 8 inches. Winds got in
            the garage of the uninhabited second house
            and lifted the roof off, then it collapsed
            back on the house and the walls buckled. The
            tornado lifted just east of property; could
            see a few small tree limbs broken to the
            east. Maximum estimated winds were 105 mph.

0149 PM     Tornado          1 W Abbott              31.88N 97.09W
04/26/2024                   Hill               TX   NWS Storm Survey

            An EF-1 tornado occurred near Abbott, first
            developing on the west side of I-35W and CR
            2341 where trees were damaged and uprooted.
            A semi-tractor trailer was rolled over on
            the interstate. The tornado moved northeast
            causing tree damage until it reached CR 3106
            where it caused minor damage to a few homes.
            The tornado dissipated near after crossing
            CR 3106 again, north of CR 3145. Maximum
            estimated winds were 95 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
204 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Temple              31.10N 97.35W
04/28/2024                   Bell               TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            At least four roads in Temple inundated.
            Report of one vehicle water rescue.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Flash Flood      Holland                 30.88N 97.41W
04/28/2024                   Bell               TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TXZ158-160-174-282100-
Falls TX-Milam TX-Bell TX-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Milam,
east central Bell and southwestern Falls Counties through 400 PM
CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rogers, or 13 miles west of Cameron, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Milam,
east central Bell and southwestern Falls Counties, including the
following locations... Barclay, Ben Arnold, Cyclone, Wilson,
Yarrelton, Pettibone, Silver City, Edgeworth, Terrys Chapel, and
Leedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3095 9732 3117 9707 3083 9685 3081 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 235DEG 19KT 3093 9719

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30