Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  An active period of weather will continue through early
   Saturday, including the potential for some severe storms along
   with heavy rainfall.

-  Rainfall totals will average 1-3” through Saturday. There is a
   10% chance that rainfall totals exceed 4” in parts of western
   North Texas, increasing the potential for flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/

A split flow regime will remain in place for a few more days
across the CONUS, with the main storm track being along the
U.S./Canada border, while the southern track contains the upper
low situated off to our west. One batch of elevated convection out
ahead of the upper low should gradually weaken over the next hour
or two, but additional thunderstorms just west of the region will
enter our western counties shortly thereafter. Activity is
developing near and north of a warm front as it retreats slowly
north through the Big Country and Central Texas this evening.
Instability and deep layer shear will continue to support the
occasional hail-producing thunderstorm with the evening activity.
Training cells may also produce isolated areas of flooding
generally along and west of the I-35 corridor.

Convection will eventually become focused west of North and
Central Texas Friday morning along a newly formed Pacific front as
the upper low approaches the Texas Panhandle. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will spread east along the front, affecting the
western zones Friday afternoon, the I-35 corridor during the evening
hours and the eastern zones closer to midnight. The highest
severe weather threat will be across the western third of the
region in the afternoon when the better instability will reside,
with large hail and damaging winds both possible. The atmosphere
will become less favorable with time as instability begins to wane
after sunset. It is also possible that flow around the outskirts
of Hurricane Raphael hinders northward expansion of the warm
sector, which may also mitigate the severe weather potential. That
being said, a storm or two (embedded within what will likely be a
broken line of convection) along the front may still overachieve
and become severe along/east of I-35.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 158 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024/
/Friday Night through Thursday/

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday night primarily
along and east of the I-35 corridor as a deep upper trough moves
into the Central Plains. A narrow, but very moist warm sector will
be in place to the east of I-35 which will continue to support at
least some threat for severe weather. More substantial will be the
deep atmospheric water content pushing PWs up in excess of 1.9"
which is near record highs for this time of year. This will
support very efficient rainfall production and deep southerly flow
will allow for some training of cells. While the overall system
will be moving quickly, there will be some potential for flooding
issues with any concentrated bands of convection. All of this
activity will spread east early Saturday with only low PoPs
persisting across our southeast counties through midday.

The rest of Saturday should feature clearing skies from west to
east and drying conditions with high temperatures in the lower
70s. Shortwave ridging will prevail throughout the Southern Plains
Sunday into Tuesday with generally dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Another system is expected to race across the
central CONUS during the midweek timeframe, but there is a little
uncertainty with respect to how much moisture we'll get back into
the region. Model consensus does indicate at least low rain
chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. We'll have 20% PoPs for
now, but these may need to be raised substantially over the
coming days if it appears better moisture gets pulled northward
ahead of the strongest lift. The shortwave disturbance will be
much more progressive so any precipitation should quickly end
early Thursday with cooler and drier conditions expected through
the end of the week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Conditions have improved to VFR at KACT but should deteriorate to
IFR by midnight local as another batch of low ceilings forms
across the region. Ceilings will likely remain at or near IFR in
the DFW Metroplex through the evening and overnight hours. Minor
improvement may occur Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The
front will bring a round of convection Friday evening (around
09/00Z), followed by clearing skies and north winds overnight
Friday night.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  71  55  70  54 /  50  60  80  10  10
Waco                67  78  54  70  53 /  50  60  80  10  10
Paris               60  69  56  70  50 /  30  50  90  30  20
Denton              63  71  50  71  47 /  50  70  90  10   5
McKinney            63  70  53  70  50 /  40  60  80  10  10
Dallas              65  73  54  71  53 /  40  60  80  10  10
Terrell             64  73  55  71  51 /  30  40  80  20  20
Corsicana           67  78  57  72  56 /  30  30  80  20  20
Temple              66  80  53  73  53 /  40  50  80  10  10
Mineral Wells       64  72  47  71  46 /  80  90  70   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
137 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through tonight with the
highest chances west of I-35. Heavy rainfall may cause some minor
flooding. In addition, a few storms may be severe with primarily a
large hail threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across all of
North and Central Texas Friday and Friday night. Locally heavy
rainfall may cause flooding in some locations. A few storms could
also become severe with a hail and damaging wind threat.

Thunderstorm chances will linger across East Texas on Saturday, but
no severe weather is expected.

Additional storms will arrive during the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be requested through Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
353 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

TXZ102-103-072230-
Denton TX-Wise TX-
353 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Wise
and northwestern Denton Counties through 430 PM CST...

At 353 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of New Fairview, or 7 miles east of Decatur, moving north
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Wise
and northwestern Denton Counties, including the following
locations... Stony, Bolivar, Greenwood, Slidell, and Ponder.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 479 and 481.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9729 3342 9715 3312 9734 3316 9753
      3343 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 199DEG 16KT 3322 9746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Dunn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
512 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             5 W Sanger              33.35N 97.26W
11/07/2024  M1.25 Inch       Denton             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Flash Flood      2 S Temple              31.07N 97.35W
11/07/2024                   Bell               TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
910 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

TXZ129-080345-
Eastland TX-
910 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Eastland
County through 945 PM CST...

At 910 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rising Star, or 15 miles south of Cisco, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Eastland
County, including the following locations... Morton Valley, Pleasant
Hill, Kokomo, Staff, Sabanno, Carbon, Okra, and Olden.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 335 and 345.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 9882 3224 9859 3208 9897 3208 9900
      3218 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 230DEG 24KT 3216 9896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

79