Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Evening/

A positive tilt trough located over the southern Rockies is
producing southwest flow aloft across Texas and the Southern
Plains. A shortwave embedded in the southwest flow will continue
lifting northeast across the Texas Panhandle this evening. This
disturbance continues to generate scattered thunderstorms along
and ahead of the dry line, which was located just west of the
region late this afternoon. A few of these storms have had a
history of producing large hail and damaging winds, and will
continue to approach the I-35 corridor over the next few hours as
the dryline advances east. A warm layer at 850MB may try to
suppress additional convective attempts, which may keep storms
isolated to scattered in nature. This may actually hinder upscale
development and prolong the presence of discrete cells, making
large hail the primary threat as storms cross the I-35 corridor
during the 7 to 10 PM time frame. There may still be a few line
segments capable of damaging winds, and a tornado or two may also
occur before storms start to weaken after 10PM.

The weakening convection will move through the eastern half of the
forecast area 10 PM to midnight, with activity exiting to the east
midnight to 3 AM. The dry line will drop dewpoints by 10 to 15
degrees, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s overnight. A
cold front will sweep through the region Tuesday morning as the
shortwave heads for the Midwest and the parent trough drops
southeast through the area. Cooler and even drier weather will
enter in the wake of the front, with Tuesday highs ranging from
the upper 50s in the northwest to the lower 70s in the southeast.
A cool Tuesday night will follow suit with temperatures falling
into the 40s near or shortly after midnight.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024/
/Midweek Onward/

Following the passage of Tuesday's cold front, cooler but fair
weather will prevail through the remainder of the workweek as
surface high pressure becomes firmly anchored across the Central
CONUS. Mostly clear skies with gradually moderating temperatures
will persist through Friday as highs return to the 70s and lower
80s.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, deep western CONUS troughing
will take shape which will establish a robust warm advection
regime across the Southern Plains for the following several days.
This will mean increasing cloud cover and the return of
shower/thunderstorm chances as soon as Saturday evening, becoming
more likely overnight into Sunday. This initial disturbance will
eject northeastward rather quickly, but parent troughing will
remain in place to our west heading into next week.

The overall pattern by Monday (eclipse day) will favor the
presence of multiple cloud decks, perhaps with one or more
mid/high canopies, as well as an intrusion of morning stratus
given a stout southerly fetch of Gulf moisture. Current ensemble
guidance continues to support roughly a 15% chance for decent
viewing conditions within the totality path. There is also
shower/thunderstorm potential during the daytime Monday with PoPs
ranging from 30-50% across the forecast area. Despite this rather
bleak cloud cover outlook, there are still a couple of low-
probability optimistic scenarios that could offer us some breaks
in cloud cover for favorable viewing. For example, one plausible
scenario is that more robust/organized convection occurs on Sunday,
eventually progressing into southeast Texas. If this convection
is long-lived and robust, it could sufficiently interrupt low-
level southerly flow such that a resurgence of low stratus would
be unlikely on Monday morning. This would allow us to only be
subject to mid/high decks being ushered in from the westerly
subtropical jet ahead of the upper low. This type of scenario
currently appears to be our best bet in terms of eclipse viewing
within the confines of our forecast area, but given its mesoscale
nature, it's not a solution that can be well forecast more than a
day or two in advance. Until then, the overall outlook will remain
on the pessimistic side. Even if sky conditions are poor, the
eclipse will still be a remarkable experience. Some excellent
points made in last night's forecast discussion are included
below.

-Stalley

Excerpt from previous discussion:

- The darkening of the sky during totality is even more pronounced
  with dense cloud cover, particularly if rain is also falling.

- The transition from a daytime sky to seemingly night (and vice
  versa) occurs in a matter of seconds.

- If you have a high vantage point (tall building, hill, etc.),
  the moon's shadow can still be apparent as it approaches at more
  than 1600 mph.

While this outlook is incredibly disappointing, all it takes is a
well-timed break in the clouds to allow for a magnificent view.
For example, rain and storms disrupted the 2017 eclipse in the
Kansas City area; but in the midst of the inclement weather, there
were some breaks in the clouds during totality.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will affect the DFW
area TAF sites 00-03Z and the KACT 01-04Z this evening. Damaging
winds and large hail are both a possibility as storms move through
the region. Activity will begin to weaken after 02/03Z as storms
move east of all TAF locations. Winds will shift to the west with
the dry line in the wake of the thunderstorms, then to the
northwest around 15Z Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Gusty
north winds are expected behind the cold front, along with
borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings. Winds will begin to weaken and skies
will clear after 00Z Tuesday evening.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  64  47  71  49 /  60   0   0   0   0
Waco                55  71  47  72  47 /  50   0   0   0   0
Paris               57  63  43  66  41 /  50   0   0   0   0
Denton              53  60  42  70  43 /  60   0   0   0   0
McKinney            55  62  43  69  44 /  60   0   0   0   0
Dallas              58  65  47  72  48 /  60   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  67  45  69  44 /  40   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  70  47  71  48 /  50   0   0   0   0
Temple              56  72  46  74  47 /  50   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       52  60  42  73  44 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
608 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of North and
Central Texas through the evening. Some of these storms could become
severe with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. There will
also be a low tornado threat with this activity, particularly north
of I-20 and west of I-35 through the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will return Saturday night and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this evening, primarily near and
west of the I-35 corridor.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
735 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     Hail             Iredell                 31.99N 97.87W
04/01/2024  M1.00 Inch       Bosque             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail in Iredell.

&&

sf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
746 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Hail             7 S Granbury            32.35N 97.79W
04/01/2024  E1.00 Inch       Hood               TX   Public

            Quarter size hail at Pecan Plantation.

&&

sf

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