Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
202 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1155 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

A slow-moving cold front continues to approach the region. Well
ahead of the boundary, a passing shortwave resulted in the
development a few short-lived showers and thunderstorms just west
of the I-35 corridor over the past couple of hours. Additional
development is expected throughout the night across Central Texas
(south of I-20 and near/east of Highway 281), but any storms that
develop should be short-lived as forcing in this region is rather
weak. However, steep lapse rates and ample instability will
maintain a low threat for severe hail with any storms that develop
in this region tonight.

Better forcing and higher moisture will coexist across eastern
North Texas late tonight as the front nears the Red River. Most
CAM members advertise the development of a complex of
thunderstorms in this area around or just after 3 am tonight. This
activity would pose a slightly higher threat for severe hail and
damaging winds, but the threat is still low overall. Any activity
that develops near the front will likely linger through the
morning until it eventually dissipates and/or moves east of the
region by midday. The rest of the afternoon will feature quiet
weather with the cold front shaving a few degrees off of high
temperatures relative to yesterday. This is primarily true for
North Texas where afternoon highs will peak in the 70s. Across
Central Texas, a later FROPA will allow temperatures to climb into
the mid 80s.

Late this afternoon and into Tuesday evening, there is a low
chance for redevelopment along the front across eastern North
Texas. Confidence in whether redevelopment will occur is low given
it will largely depend on how things evolve this morning.
Therefore, we'll keep PoPs on the lower side (around 20%) until
greater confidence can be established. Otherwise, south winds will
gradually return on Wednesday. Despite an increase in cloud cover,
temperatures will still manage to climb into the 70s to low 80s
across the region Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will remain
near zero until our next system arrives just outside of the
short-term period Wednesday evening, which is discussed in detail
in the long-term discussion below.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Evening Onward/

Our next round of thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by
early Wednesday evening across the Big Country at the nose of a
strengthening low-level jet and attendant moisture flux
convergence. As rich theta-e air is advected northward beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates, scattered thunderstorm clusters of a
multicellular and/or elevated supercellular mode should develop
across the western fringes of the forecast area and advance
east/northeast into North Texas Wednesday night. The
shear/instability parameter space will largely result in a hail
threat as the primary convective hazard. The lack of near-surface
moisture return will make surface-based convention quite unlikely
during the overnight period.

Warm/moist advection will continue into Thursday which will aid in
sharpening the dryline boundary to our west, and this feature
will offer another source of ascent for convective development
heading into the daytime as stronger mid-level height falls arrive
ahead of a deepening upper trough. One or more areas of
additional convective development are expected within the open
warm sector which will have expanded across much of the Southern
Plains during the daytime. However, the lack of robust focusing
boundaries and moderate effective shear may tend to limit
thunderstorm organization and longevity. Isolated strong or severe
storms will remain possible into Thursday night and Friday, mostly
being the result of very steep mid-level lapse rates and
buoyancy, while the dryline/Pacific front boundary begins to push
eastward as more robust upstream surface cyclogenesis occurs.

The Pacific front's eastward advance should begin to shut down
precipitation from west to east during the daytime Friday, while a
strong surface cold front makes southward progress into North
Texas by late afternoon. Scoured moisture prior to the front's
arrival will likely result in a dry frontal passage for most of
the CWA as it rapidly sweeps through the entire area on Friday
evening. For those already immersed in our recent springtime
weather, this front will be a rather rude awakening as it sends
temperatures plummeting into the upper 30s and 40s by Saturday
morning. As post-frontal stratus lingers through much of the day,
afternoon highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees following
several days with readings in the 70s and 80s. Most of the daytime
will be spent in the 50s with a brisk north wind of 15-25 mph and
some higher gusts. Anyone who got an early jump on spring
planting may want to consider protecting plants from frost on
Saturday night, with outlying areas of North Texas expected to
dip into the low/mid 30s in the presence of favorable radiational
cooling.

Southerly winds and clearing skies will return during the daytime
Sunday, leading to a slow warming trend to end the weekend and
begin the workweek. Confidence is high in dry weather during the
Sunday through Tuesday period, with ensemble guidance in good
agreement regarding a progressive disturbance delivering
additional rain chances towards the middle of next week.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1155 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop across Central Texas throughout the
night, but any shower/storm that develops should be brief. Despite
this, these storms could quickly intensify and produce severe
hail. The chances for a storm near KACT are quite low, so VCTS was
not included in the TAF. However, a stray storm near the airport
can't be ruled out through the remainder of the night. Additional
storm development is expected in eastern North Texas late tonight
into Tuesday morning. This activity is expected to remain well
north and east of the terminals. Additionally, patchy fog and
MVFR/IFR stratus is expected across far eastern North and Central
Texas but is expected to remain well east of all TAF sites.

Winds are currently light and out of the south but will gradually
become southwesterly throughout the night, but variable winds are
possible at times given wind speeds will be near 5 knots or less.
A slow-moving cold front will arrive in D10 around 15-16Z this
morning, bringing a north wind shift behind the front. A later
arrival time of ~18Z is expected for Waco. Wind speeds will
increase to 8-12 knots within a couple of hours after frontal
passage.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  55  78  61  74 /  10   5   5  30  60
Waco                83  54  79  60  73 /   5   0   0  10  50
Paris               78  53  73  59  71 /  40  20   5  40  60
Denton              77  50  77  58  71 /   5   0   5  30  60
McKinney            79  53  77  60  71 /  20  10   5  30  60
Dallas              80  56  79  62  73 /  10   5   5  30  60
Terrell             80  55  77  61  73 /  20  10   5  30  50
Corsicana           84  58  81  63  74 /  10   5   5  20  50
Temple              85  53  81  60  74 /   0   0   0  10  50
Mineral Wells       77  49  78  58  73 /   0   0   5  30  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
203 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-060130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
203 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across Central Texas and eastern
North Texas early this morning, and mainly across Northeast Texas
later today along an approaching cold front. A few strong to severe
storms are possible and will be capable of producing hail and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday evening and will continue off
and on through Friday. A few strong or severe storms with primarily
a hail threat are possible during this time period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1043 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     Hail             2 N Iredell             32.01N 97.89W
03/04/2024  U0.88 inch       Bosque             TX   Emergency Mngr

&&

MSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 AM     Hail             1 ESE Malakoff          32.17N 96.00W
03/05/2024  E1.00 inch       Henderson          TX   Public

            Report from mPING. Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

MSS