Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
612 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes with the most recent short-term forecast update.
We're still looking at another active day with widespread rain and
storm chances. While not everyone will see rain all day
today/tonight, the entire forecast area should receive measurable
rainfall. The threat for severe weather continues for areas
generally along and south of I-20 from late this morning into this
evening and maybe during the overnight hours. Large hail will be
the main threat in addition to the heavy rain and flooding
concerns. There is still a threat for a tornado or two across the
far southern zones this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, minor
tweaks were made to the PoPs to reflect the latest radar and model
trends.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday night/

The short-term period continues to be very active with not only
additional rounds of showers and storms but also the potential
for severe weather and heavy rainfall. A strong upper level low
will continue to approach our area today bringing additional
large-scale ascent under a very favorable environment for
organized convection. The ongoing showers/storms associated with
the outflow/frontal boundary across North Texas will continue to
move east through early Tuesday morning. While the severe threat
has decreased to some extent during the last hour or so, a few
storms may still be capable of producing hail. Locally heavy rain
may also result in minor flooding as convection keeps developing
along the same areas near the boundary; roughly from Denton and
Collin counties to the north.

The coverage and intensity of the precipitation is expected
decrease during the morning hours before the next round develops
in the afternoon and evening. As advertised over the last few
days, the combination of the lingering surface boundary somewhere
over Central Texas, the large scale support from the upper trough
and a very unstable airmass will result in another round of
organized clusters and broken lines of storms. Some of this
activity is expected to be severe mainly south of I-20/30
corridors with large hail as the primary threat. There is still a
threat for damaging winds and tornadoes, especially across the
far southern zones where both wind profiles and thermodynamics
may support it. The severe threat will finally move east and
outside of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Periods of heavy rain are still expected anywhere, but especially
across portions of East Texas where isolated rainfall amounts
could exceed 5 inches through Wednesday morning.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

After a very active start of the week, one final round of showers
and storms is expected on Wednesday as the main upper level
trough moves over the southern Plains. Areas across North Texas
will have the best rain chances as wrap around precipitation
develops near the main upper low during the day. Sufficient
elevated instability with steep mid-level lapse rates may support
a few strong to marginally severe storms with hail as the main
threat. However, the highest potential for severe weather will
stay east of our CWA.

Rain chances will finally taper off Wednesday night as high
pressure builds overhead. Dry, breezy, and seasonable conditions
will persist through the end of the week with a warming trend
over the weekend. High temperatures will range from the 60s and
70s on Wednesday climbing into the mid 70s to 80s by Friday.
Beyond the nice weekend weather ahead, low rain chances will
return early next week as the next system approaches the region.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low ceilings and multiple rounds of thunderstorms through
the period.

While a few sites across North Texas will continue to bounce
between FEW007 and BKN007 this morning, IFR cigs and
east/northeast winds between 5-10 kt should prevail the rest of
the forecast period.

Latest radar imagery (6 am) shows most of the overnight
convection has moved towards East Texas. Almost all of the TAF
sites will remain dry through the morning hours with the exception
of KACT where there will be a potential for light rain and
isolated storms. Additional development of storms is still
expected this afternoon and evening and could impact some if not
all of the sites. A few storms may become severe with large hail
as the main threat. Periods of heavy rain may occur with some of
the stronger storms and may briefly reduce visibility.

The main cluster of showers and storms should move to the east
Tuesday evening, but there will be potential for at least
scattered activity late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. For
the extended period, expect one last round of showers and
elevated storms late Wednesday morning into the afternoon as the
main storm system finally moves across the region.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  61  69  52  73 /  90  60  60  20   0
Waco                74  59  70  51  73 / 100  60  30  10   0
Paris               68  61  70  49  69 / 100  80  80  40   0
Denton              70  56  67  47  71 /  90  70  70  10   0
McKinney            70  61  68  50  70 /  90  70  70  20   0
Dallas              71  61  70  52  73 /  90  70  60  20   0
Terrell             71  61  70  50  70 / 100  70  60  20   0
Corsicana           75  63  72  52  73 / 100  70  50  10   0
Temple              76  58  70  50  75 /  90  70  20   5   0
Mineral Wells       72  55  66  47  72 /  90  60  60   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-
135-146>148-161.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
517 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101030-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
517 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Thunderstorms chances continue today across most of North and Central
Texas. The highest severe threat this afternoon and tonight will be
near and south of I-20. Large hail will be the main concern, but
there is an isolated threat for tornadoes across the southeast into
the Brazos Valley region.

Flooding will also be possible, especially where any training storms
may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A few thunderstorms are possible across North Texas on Wednesday.
Some strong storms may be capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

Flooding due to locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
857 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

TXZ158-091430-
Bell TX-
857 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bell County through
930 AM CDT...

At 857 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holland, or 9 miles south of Belton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Little River-Academy around 900 AM CDT.
  Temple and Belton around 905 AM CDT.
  Troy around 915 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Cedar Valley, Moffat,
Heidenheimer, Owl Creek, Youngsport, Sparks, Prairie Dell, Woodland,
Oenaville, and Ratibor.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 278 and 305.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 9762 3090 9776 3121 9763 3125 9756
      3114 9718 3108 9714 3091 9723 3089 9726
      3075 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 205DEG 38KT 3093 9744

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Dunn

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
954 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     Hail             Bruceville-Eddy         31.30N 97.25W
04/09/2024  M1.00 Inch       McLennan           TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

MAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1032 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     Hail             2 SE Trinidad           32.13N 96.09W
04/09/2024  M1.00 Inch       Henderson          TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

MAS