Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New Short Term, Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday afternoon/

An active afternoon and evening is taking shape across the region
as scattered to numerous storms continue to develop. At 1 pm,
surface analysis show a stationary boundary south of I-20 with
storms already developing near and north of the boundary. While
the 18Z sounding from FWD still shows the cap, a highly unstable
environment with very steep lapse rates and efficient lift will
result in additional storms through the evening. The overall
trend should be an eastward/southward progression of these storms
as the stationary boundary slowly pushes southward. Areas across
North Texas will have the threat for severe storms through 7 pm,
with the threat shifting to Central Texas from 6 pm through 9-10
pm. Very large hail and damaging winds continue to be the main
concerns, however the tornado threat is still present near and
south of the surface boundary. Most of the activity should be
east and south of our area before midnight as the boundary pushes
southward.

The rest of the night should be quiet with clouds slowly clearing
for most locations. Areas across the far southern Central Texas
may see a period of low clouds and patchy fog overnight, but
should clear by early Friday morning. A weak shortwave will move
through our region Friday afternoon into the evening and may
interact with some leftover moisture across Central Texas. This
may result in a few showers and storms across the far western
Central Texas but coverage should stay below 20%. There could be
enough instability for a few strong storms, but at this time the
severe potential remains low. Otherwise, Friday's temperatures
will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Not much has changed in regards to the extended portion of the
forecast. Pleasant weather is expected to start the weekend with
afternoon highs primarily in the mid to upper 70s. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will begin across our west and southwest
Saturday evening/night increasing in coverage and spreading east
during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. The severe potential
is low on Sunday, but a few storms could produce some small hail.
Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday primarily
along/east of I-35, exiting to the east by Monday night. Heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe, especially across our already water-
logged areas in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where there is
a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals exceed 2 inches during this
timeframe. We will likely see a break in the rain chances Tuesday-
Tuesday night before storm chances, potentially severe, return in
the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. See the discussion below for
more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night Onward/

North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast
Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red
River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the
cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will
create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red
River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge
axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on
Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The
result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs
generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will
be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the far west associated with an upper low situated over
the southern Rockies.

Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night
as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will
initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will
spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as
the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming
stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in
nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat.
However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to
support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday
night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas.

Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday
as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains.
Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low
exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry
conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night,
followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as
the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have
lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back
within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play,
making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today)
significant opportunity severe weather.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 120 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...TSRA and severe weather potential this afternoon.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop
through this evening and may impact most of the TAF sites. Latest
guidance still show the main window for TSRA near DFW Metroplex
sites between 20-22Z, but storms may be in the vicinity through
01-02Z. For Waco, the window for TSRA is a little bit later
between 0-3Z. Some of these storms will be severe with large hail
and damaging winds. Coverage of storms will likely increase this
afternoon and evening before they exit our area before midnight.
After that, VFR and northerly winds should continue through
tomorrow. There is still a medium chance KACT may see a period of
MVFR between 08-13Z as today's front lingers just south of that
area.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  82  62  78  62 /  20   0   5   5  30
Waco                64  79  62  76  63 /  60   5  10  10  30
Paris               60  79  56  80  60 /  20   0   0   0  10
Denton              59  80  58  78  60 /  20   0   5   5  30
McKinney            60  80  58  78  60 /  20   0   0   0  20
Dallas              64  81  62  79  63 /  20   0   5   5  20
Terrell             62  80  59  78  61 /  30   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           64  83  62  78  64 /  60   0   5   5  20
Temple              64  80  62  77  62 /  60   5  10  10  30
Mineral Wells       58  80  59  75  59 /  20   0   5  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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