Flash Flood Warning 156, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
520 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will return today.
  Some severe storms will be possible, mainly across portions of
  Central and East Texas.

- Warmer weather is expected Friday through Monday, followed by a
  cool-down for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The main update has been the addition of several counties to a
pair of Dense Fog Advisories. Visibilities are wavering, but
frequently falling to or below a quarter mile for some of the Red
River counties and western portions of Central Texas. Both
advisories run until 10 AM. Otherwise, we still expect showers and
storms to develop fairly rapidly west of I-35 between 6 and 9 AM,
then increase in coverage and intensity while spreading east
through North and Central Texas late morning through the
afternoon. Some storms may be severe, particularly this afternoon
east of I-35. The rest of the forecast is on track.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

Tuesday's weak cold front has stalled just east and southeast of
the region, extending from near Texarkana to the Texas Coastal
Bend at midnight. The front will begin to lift north along its
western flank overnight as the next storm system approaches from
the west. Lingering moisture at the low levels and a gradual
strengthening of isentropic upglide will allow for additional fog
formation during the overnight hours into Thursday morning.
Temperatures and dewpoints are essentially both in the 50s across
the board, so the expectation is that localized fog along the Red
River and Central Texas will become more widespread over the next
several hours. Dense fog has already developed in the Sherman and
Paris areas and seems to be slowly expanding, so a small Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued along the Red River. The advisory may
need to be expanded at some point if quarter-mile or less
visibilities become more common.

The aforementioned storm system is comprised of a shortwave
currently entering the Texas Panhandle and a developing surface
low and Pacific front over west-central Texas, all of which will
move east into the Big Country Thursday morning. Widespread
showers and occasional thunderstorms will develop immediately
ahead of the surface front, initially west of I-35, by the mid
morning hours. Convection will increase in coverage and intensity
while crossing the I-35 corridor late morning into early Thursday
afternoon. At this point, most of the forecast area will still be
in a relatively cool sector north of the now warm front, keeping
convection elevated and likely sub-severe. That said, strong deep
layer shear and modest levels of elevated instability may allow
for a few hail-producing storms.

The warm front will surge north Thursday afternoon as the Pacific
front pushes east, immersing East Texas and eastern portions of
Central Texas in a warmer and more unstable environment. This is
when and where the better potential for severe weather will exist,
including both damaging winds and large hail as equal threats. A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out, along with the threat for
localized flooding where any training convection may occur. This
system will be more progressive compared to the last one, and all
activity should exit to the east early Thursday evening. One
exception will be in and around the Paris area where wrap-around
moisture may allow for lingering rain showers through midnight.

Despite the exiting trough and associated precipitation, the front
will once again stall just to our southeast as yet another
shortwave approaches from the west Thursday night. Winds will
become light during the overnight hours, which when combined with
recent rainfall may lead to more fog formation by daybreak Friday.
Will add some patchy fog for Thursday night into Friday morning.
Fog will dissipate by midday, giving way to a mostly sunny and
warm Friday afternoon with highs in the 60s and 70s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/
/This Weekend Through New Year's Day/

The final shortwave of the week will swing through the region on
Saturday, resulting in little more than clouds. An initial dryline
surge will introduce downsloping westerly winds that will allow
many locations to top 70F Saturday afternoon. As the impulse aloft
passes to our east, its associated (albeit weak) cold front will
sweep through.

South winds will quickly return on Sunday, and abundant sunshine
into Monday will assure a steady warming trend. Temperatures will
soar into the 70s Monday afternoon with some locations across
Central Texas topping 80F. Depending on the timing of a cold
front, record highs may be challenged. (See details below in the
Climate section.) The veering winds ahead of the front will scour
the boundary layer moisture, and this frontal passage will be
without rainfall.

More seasonal temperatures will return to the region for New
Year's Eve and New Year's Day. During Tuesday evening's
festivities, temperatures will fall into the 40s but with
diminishing winds.

.CLIMATE...

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Monday. In Dallas/
Fort Worth, the mercury may approach 80F, but that will be well
short of the record high for December 30, which is 90F in 1951.

However, in Central Texas, record highs may be challenged:

Record Highs for December 30
   Waco      82F in 2021
   Killeen   85F in 1951

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Ceilings have tanked to LIFR and may remain as such until a
Pacific front pushes through early this afternoon. The front will
be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, which should begin to
develop just west of all TAF sites 12-14Z. The main window of
convection at all airports is 15Z to 19Z, with activity exiting to
the east around 20Z.

MVFR conditions this afternoon may lift to VFR for a little while
this evening, but will deteriorate tonight as the front stalls
just to the southeast, winds drop below 10 kt, and cigs/vsbys once
again begin to drop. Some dense fog is possible Friday morning,
but more likely in rural locations. Conditions will improve
rapidly by midday Friday and a much quieter weekend is in store.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  49  68  50  71 /  90  10   0   0   0
Waco                67  47  70  47  73 /  90   0   0   0   5
Paris               60  50  63  45  66 / 100  40   0   5   5
Denton              59  45  68  45  70 /  90  20   0   0   0
McKinney            60  48  66  47  69 /  90  20   0   0   0
Dallas              62  48  68  48  70 /  90  10   0   0   0
Terrell             62  49  68  49  70 /  90  10   0   5   5
Corsicana           65  51  70  52  74 /  90   5   0   5   5
Temple              71  46  75  49  77 /  80   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       62  45  71  45  72 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ091>095-
102>107-129>132-141>144-156>158.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
354 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271000-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
354 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Some areas will experience dense fog this morning.

Thunderstorms will impact much of the region today. Some of the
storms could be severe, particularly across Central and East Texas.
The primary hazards will be hail and damaging winds. There is also
the potential for tornadoes and localized flooding.

Thunderstorm chances will linger across Texoma and East Texas into
the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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