Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Main adjustment with this morning's forecast was to extend the
Flood Watch in East Texas until 7 PM, with one last round of
showers and thunderstorms set to develop over the next several
hours. Instability/MUCAPE still appears sufficient for isolated
strong storms with primarily a hail threat, as all convection will
remain elevated above the cool boundary layer today. Additional
rain amounts of 1-2" and perhaps a couple isolated 3" are possible
east of I-35 which will support minor flooding in the presence of
already saturated grounds from previous rainfall. Otherwise, the
brief period of elevated wind speeds late this afternoon and
evening which was previously discussed still appears to be a
possibility and was supported by 06z guidance. However, the
brevity and marginal speeds probably do not warrant a short Wind
Advisory in North Texas for the late afternoon period at this
juncture.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

As of midnight, elevated convection in Central Texas above a
stalled frontal surface continues to advance east/southeast, and
has exited most of the forecast area with the exception of our far
southeastern counties. The environment does remain favorable for
an elevated hail threat, although the wind threat has likely
declined given the cooling boundary layer. Post-frontal north
winds will remain in place through the entirety of the short term
period as an occluding surface low passes to our southeast.

Despite the passing of all surface boundaries, the upper low
itself remains back to our west, and the core of this low and
strongest height falls will overspread all of North and Central
Texas later this morning, leading to one final round of shower
and thunderstorm activity. While surface temperatures will mostly
remain in the lower 60s all day, moderate elevated instability
will still exist as very cool mid-level temperatures arrive with
the cold core upper low. This will result in buoyancy sufficient
for instances of marginally severe hail despite an absence of
other severe hazards, and CAMs favor areas roughly along and east
of I-35 from late morning into the afternoon for the possibility
of a few stronger hail cores. Lightning activity also tends to
overachieve in these types of setups. In addition, further heavy
rainfall is possible, and isolated additional totals of 1-2 inches
occurring in already saturated areas from previous days' rainfall
could culminate in more flooding. We'll continue to assess
guidance overnight as to whether an extension of the East Texas
Flood Watch into the afternoon is warranted, as it currently is
scheduled to expire at 7 AM.

Following an eastward exit of precipitation early this evening, a
brief window of strong north/northwest gradient winds could
materialize on the western flank of the departing surface low in
a vague sting jet setup. With some uncertainty on where the
highest wind speeds might mix down to the surface from 850-925mb
flow exceeding 60 kts, no Wind Advisory product is currently
planned, but parts of North Texas could experience a few-hour
window of locally stronger winds very late this afternoon into the
evening. If this setup materializes, sustained speeds of 20-30
mph and gusts exceeding 40 mph are possible.

As the low pressure system continues to depart eastward tonight,
skies the wrap-around stratus deck will gradually shift into East
Texas. Skies will become mostly clear overnight into Thursday
morning with a pleasant day to follow. Highs will rebound into the
70s while a moderate north breeze continues.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/
/Thursday Night Through Early Next Week/

The two highlights of the long-term period are the drying and
warming trend over the next several days followed by rain/storm
chances returning early next week.

Tranquil weather conditions are expected Friday into the weekend
as zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure prevails. Southerly
winds return on Friday, with breezy conditions Saturday and
Sunday due to a passing disturbance over the central Plains.
Moisture and clouds will also begin to increase over the weekend
as southerly flow becomes established. High temperatures will
range from the 70s to low 80s on Friday, climbing into the 80s to
low 90s by Sunday. Areas across the far western zones will have
the highest chances to reach 90 degrees Sunday afternoon.

A pattern shift will take place early next week as the next upper
level low approaches from the west. Precipitation chances return
on Monday as both large scale ascent and a surface
dryline/Pacific front support the development of showers and
storms. This activity may develop first to our west, approaching
our area later in the day/night. It is not surprising that models
are showing a favorable environment for severe weather, so this
is something we will continue to monitor over the next several
days. As expected, the degree of spread between deterministic and
ensemble guidance with the track and evolution of the upper low
is evident, but looking at the cluster analysis more than half of
the members show precipitation chances at least through Wednesday.
Not only we will have to pay attention to the severe weather
threat, but also the potential for heavy rainfall that may
result in at least some minor flooding.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Poor flying conditions ranging from LIFR to MVFR will persist
through most of the morning before another round of showers and
thunderstorms spreads into the D10 area between 15-19z. A few
hours of midday convective impacts at most airports seem likely
as an upper low drifts overhead, but this activity will begin
shifting off to the east by late afternoon. A reinforcing cold
front will result in gusty northwest winds through the late
afternoon and early evening period while category improvement to
VFR cigs occurs. The low-stratus deck should move east of all TAF
sites after midnight, with SKC prevailing into Thursday morning
with a northwest breeze.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  51  73  51  79 /  90  10   0   0   0
Waco                67  49  73  48  77 /  60   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  50  69  45  76 / 100  50   0   0   0
Denton              63  46  71  45  79 /  80  10   0   0   0
McKinney            64  49  71  47  77 /  90  10   0   0   0
Dallas              66  51  73  50  79 /  90  10   0   0   0
Terrell             66  49  71  47  76 /  90  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  50  74  49  78 /  80   5   0   0   0
Temple              68  48  75  48  78 /  50   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  46  73  47  81 /  60   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-
146>148-161.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
833 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Flash Flood      Temple                  31.10N 97.36W
04/09/2024                   Bell               TX   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report of multiple swift water
            rescues overnight.

&&

MAS