Wind Advisory 10, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
633 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers today, with near seasonal temperatures and
  breezy southwesterly winds. Gusts 30 to 40 mph expected,
  although an isolated higher gust is possible with any showers
  and in south central SD. Will monitor potential for a small
  Wind Advisory later today.

- More widespread rain and isolated storm chances on Wednesday.
  Although severe weather is not expected, funnel clouds and
  locally heavy rain are possible - mainly along/east of I-29.

- Warmer and mostly dry conditions move in for the weekend and
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

CURRENTS: Showers and isolated storms are continuing to move out of
southwestern MN and northwestern IA early this morning. Winds are
already on the increase, with gusts through 3 AM CDT/08z around 20
to 35 mph. Seeing some breaks in the clouds across south central
into northwestern SD, but this is short lived as more cloud cover
pivots around the mid/upper low pressure. Temperatures are
holding steady in the 50s, but do expect areas in west of I-29
to fall into the mid/upper 40s by daybreak.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: Mid and upper level low continues to spin and
meander into western ND. We'll be in westerly flow for part of the
day, with streams of vorticity advecting over the area. Expect
mostly cloudy skies today with the low off to our northwest.
Vorticity as well as some very weak instability (less than 100 J/kg)
could lead to isolated showers through the day; however, soundings
show that we may struggle a bit with saturation in this unstable
layer, so showers remain isolated and limited mention to sprinkles.
Near average temperatures with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Winds
remain breezy today (out of the southwest by the afternoon) with
gusts 30 to 40 mph and sustained winds around 10-20 mph thanks to
strong flow aloft and a compressed surface pressure gradient. Could
see some isolated higher gusts in south central SD where mixing may
be more efficient later this afternoon, and stronger gusts may also
mix down with showers. Will keep an eye on the potential for a small
Wind Advisory in south central SD, especially if some of the these
more mixy soundings end up being reality. Winds and showers taper
off after sunset as we lose mixing. Lows tonight fall into the 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Mid and upper low wobbles back to the east Wednesday,
centering itself over our forecast area. This brings back more
widespread shower chances with isolated thunderstorms. Instability
is still fairly weak around 1000 J/kg, although some of the
more aggressive models (like the RAP) do have instability around
1500 J/kg. Severe weather looks unlikely - that said, cannot
entirely rule out some funnels and/or landspouts with showers
and isolated storms with the mid/upper low overhead. Mid level
lapse rates at or above 7 deg C/km coincident with the instability
and vorticity advection are somewhat favorable for this potential
along and east of I-29 during the late morning through the
afternoon hours. Folks should keep an eye on the forecast. Could
also see some brief and localized heavy rainfall with slower
shower/storm motion, with some rainfall totals east of I-29
possibly approaching an inch. Otherwise, less breezy with
north/northeast winds. Widespread showers/isolated storms and
cloud cover keeps temperatures a bit cooler, in the 60s. Lows
fall into the 40s once again.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: Lingering showers into the day on
Thursday as the mid/upper low finally moves off to the south. Near
normal temps expected. A mid level wave and upper jet swing through
eastern ND and MN on Friday, which could bring back showers and
isolated storms to areas east of I-29 into the day Saturday. Ridging
begins to build across the Rockies by the latter half of the weekend,
allowing us to warm to above average temperatures with mostly dry
conditions into the early part of next week as the ridge axis slides
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Watching an area of MVFR/IFR and patchy LIFR stratus lift
northeast out of northwestern IA and southwestern MN this
morning. Models are not handling this area well, but expect it
to lift northeast of US Highway 59 by mid morning. Otherwise,
watching low VFR ceilings advect in from the west, pivoting
around the low pressure. Clouds prevail today with isolated
showers. Have left any mention of precip out of the TAF given
low confidence in coverage and timing.

Otherwise, breezy to strong winds expected through today. Gusts
around 25 to 35 knots, highest across south central SD. Could
see some higher gusts in south central SD and with any showers
that develop. Direction shift to more southwesterly during the
day. Winds drop off after sunset, becoming somewhat variable due
to the pivoting low pressure.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-052>056-059>062-065>071-080930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Jerauld-
Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-
Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong winds expected again today. Gusts 30 to 40 mph expected.
Isolated higher gusts are possible this afternoon, and may also
occur with showers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. Some of
these storms may contain small hail, along with a potential for weak
funnels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ050-057-058-063-064-080930-
Gregory-Brule-Aurora-Charles Mix-Douglas-
426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong winds expected again today. Gusts 35 to 45 mph expected.
Isolated higher gusts are possible this afternoon, and may also
occur with showers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. Some of
these storms may contain small hail, along with a potential for weak
funnels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.