Wind Advisory 1, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

983 
WWUS73 KFSD 081738
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

IAZ003-014-022-MNZ090-082000-
/O.CON.KFSD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240208T2000Z/
Dickinson-Clay-Buena Vista-Jackson-
Including the cities of Spirit Lake, Spencer, Arnolds Park,
Jackson, Lakefield, Milford, and Storm Lake
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Buena Vista, Clay, and Dickinson Counties. In 
  Minnesota, Jackson County.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 

$$

AP

411 
WWUS73 KFSD 082021
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
221 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

IAZ003-014-022-MNZ090-082130-
/O.EXP.KFSD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240208T2000Z/
Dickinson-Clay-Buena Vista-Jackson-
Including the cities of Spirit Lake, Spencer, Arnolds Park,
Jackson, Lakefield, Milford, and Storm Lake
221 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Wind gusts have decreased to below advisory criteria. Therefore, the 
wind advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

AP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1015 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high overnight lows possible tonight and Thursday
  night.

- Chances for measurable precipitation returns this evening
  through Thursday evening. Light rain is expected with
  locations along and west of the James River seeing one to two
  tenths of an inch of rain. Other locations are expected to see
  a few hundredths. While a dusting of snow is possible, no new
  snow accumulations are expected.

- Above normal temperatures continue to a lesser extent (5-10+
  deg F) through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024

Gusty conditions continue this afternoon with gusts reaching up to
30-40 mph. With abundant mid and high level clouds across the
region, temperatures have only warmed into the 50s. This has kept
mixing a bit weaker and kept the strongest winds from being mixed to
the surface. That being said, isolated gusts above 40 mph remain
possible for this evening and night, strongest along and east of I-
29 where the strongest surface pressure gradient (SPG) will lie. The
other aspect is light rain chances this evening and night. Lee
cyclogenesis will continue as an upper level trough continues its
ejection from the Rockies and into the Plains states. Shortwaves
rotating through the upper wave will introduce chances for rain this
evening through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning.
Soundings show dry air in the mid and low levels but do slowly
saturate through the evening and overnight hours. This moistening
will also coincide with steeping mid level lapse rates which will
generate a small amount of CAPE. With CAPE values only up to around
100 J/kg at the most, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Hi-
res guidance depicts two periods of rain. The first period begins
this evening with hit or miss showers throughout the area. The
second period comes early tomorrow morning as a cold front begins to
move into the forecast area. The front looks to provide a focus for
rain mainly during the morning hours, which should allow for a more
widespread light rain to pass through the area. The other aspect for
tonight is another chance for record warm low temperatures. With the
remaining winds and cloud cover, lows will only fall to the upper
30s to mid 40s, warmest along and east of I-29.

The surface low and associated cold front will push through the area
by the early afternoon hours tomorrow, ending rain chances for most
of the area. With the cold front through, temperatures will not be
as warm with highs only warming to the low 40s across central South
Dakota to up to around 50 degrees F in northwest Iowa. With cooling
temperatures behind the front, a few hi-res guidance members show
very light snow filtering into locations along the highway-14
corridor Thursday evening. However, have opted for a dry solution as
only a few members are showing this and soundings show drying in the
low levels in the post frontal environment. Rainfall totals remain
on the light side with locations along and west of the James River
expected to get between one to two tenths of an inch. Only a few
hundredths are expected for all other locations. While a dusting of
snow is possible, have opted to leave snowfall totals at a straight
zero. With a cooler airmass introduced to the region, low
temperatures will be cooler, only falling down to 20s and 30s
overnight.

Friday through the weekend and into early next week will be quiet as
dry northwest flow prevails. A long wave tough associated with the
southern jet stream will push into the Southern Plains over the
weekend. This will keep the Northern Plains tied to the northern and
cooler jet stream. Despite the cooler conditions, highs will warm to
the 30s and 40s during this period of time. While relatively cooler,
this will continue above average temperatures for the region as
highs will average around 5 to 10+ degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024

Initial band of rain associated with warm advection and the
low level jet continues to move into Minnesota and Iowa. Very
minimal rain amounts with this precipitation area and ceilings
remain at VFR levels. Second area of rain tied more directly to
low-lvl circulation moving northward out of Nebraska will bring
an increased risk for showers to areas west of the Missouri
River early this morning.

Broad LLWS will persist along and east of I-29 through 14Z.

Eventually the low-lvl and surface low will move east and
northeast bringing scattered rain and lower ceilings towards
daybreak. Ceilings should initially drop to MVFR levels before
lowering to IFR levels by mid-day across much of the Tri-State
area.

West to northwest winds will gust over 30 mph at times behind
the passage of the surface low through the afternoon and
evening. Some improvement in ceilings is possible by the
evening, but most areas will remain below VFR levels through
midnight.

 &&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Dux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1144 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-081745-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
1144 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A spring-like weather system will be moving into the region today,
producing strong southerly wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph, with isolated
gusts to 45 mph possible. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph continue into
this evening, easing slightly after midnight. Scattered light rain
showers are expected to develop by this evening and tonight, with the
best chances across portions of southeast South Dakota and southwest
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered light showers will continue Thursday morning, mainly along
and north of Interstate 90. Precipitation looks to remain all rain
through Thursday, though some very light snow could mix in toward
central South Dakota, and also north of Highway 14 on Thursday.
Winds will swing around to the west late tonight and Thursday, with
gusts again reaching 30 to 40 mph by Thursday afternoon.

No hazardous weather is expected Friday into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.