Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

155 
WWUS53 KFSD 082127
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
427 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

IAC149-167-082137-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240508T2145Z/
Sioux IA-Plymouth IA-
427 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX AND
NORTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4281 9583 4297 9584 4307 9576 4292 9547
      4275 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 225DEG 16KT 4286 9574 

$$

IAC035-141-082145-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240508T2145Z/
Cherokee IA-O'Brien IA-
427 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHWESTERN O'BRIEN COUNTIES...

At 427 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cleghorn, or 11
miles northwest of Cherokee, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Paullina around 430 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Calumet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4281 9583 4297 9584 4307 9576 4292 9547
      4275 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 225DEG 16KT 4286 9574 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BP

311 
WWUS53 KFSD 082141
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
441 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

IAC035-141-082150-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240508T2145Z/
Cherokee IA-O'Brien IA-
441 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN O'BRIEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4281 9583 4297 9584 4307 9576 4292 9547
      4275 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 209DEG 25KT 4293 9569 

$$

Meyers

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
241 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain likely this
  afternoon and evening, transitioning to a more showery threat
  after 10 pm. Isolated storms could produce hail to the size
  of half dollars as well as wind gusts to 50 mph. Some threat
  for localized heavy rainfall exists, with the better chance in
  parts of northwest IA, although confidence is low.

- Warmer and mainly dry conditions move in for the weekend.
  Continued warm with renewed rain chances by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage across parts
of northwest IA and southwest MN through the afternoon as well as
near highway 14. A small axis of instability is expected this
afternoon in this area. Overall instability not that high, but with
the freezing level around 6-7 kft it will be pretty easy to get some
smaller hail. Still looks like an environment supportive of hail up
to half dollar sized with only weak shear expected. One other thing
to watch will be the potential for funnels and landspouts. Steep low
level lapse rates and lighter winds near a surface boundary may
support this type of activity. With only marginal instability and
weak shear any activity like this should be short lived. While some
stronger winds gusts will be possible the HRRR and HREF both
indicating gusts should generally be 50 mph or lower.

The upper level low pressure shears out and sags south tonight into
Thursday. Scattered showers will remain possible during this time,
but instability is quite a bit less so even lightning will likely
diminish quite a bit after about 10 pm. Lows will be seasonally mild
in the mid 40s.

While the main synoptic forcing settles south, model soundings do
show some weak instability near the top of the mixed layer on
Thursday which may support some isolated showery activity.
Temperatures will also be a touch cooler as winds turn northerly and
some diurnally driven cloud cover is expected to develop. Highs
should still be in the 60s.

Friday and Saturday will be dry and mild as northwest flow aloft
weakens and westerly flow in the low levels is in place. By Sunday a
weak wave in this flow could bring some isolated activity but for
now this looks to be low impact. Highs should gradually warm from
the lower 70s Friday to the lower 80s by Sunday.

West to northwest flow aloft is expected Monday and Tuesday which
should lead to a couple of warm days. While this pattern will not be
a wet one, some spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible. The most agreement appears to be Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

Wednesday into Thursday the models are indicating a strong upper
level jet max diving into the Northern Rockies which should turn
upper level flow more southwesterly and bring a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Challenging forecast with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. For now the lower chances appear to be
near the Missouri River this afternoon and evening with the
better chances in parts of northwest IA and southwest MN then
north of I-90 in SD. A few of the storms could contain hail,
strong winds and lightning as well as an isolated funnel cloud
or landspout. The better chance for hail will be around
northwest IA and southwest MN with the better chance for funnels
in SD. Overall outside of the showers and storms VFR conditions
are expected, with an increasing chance for MVFR ceilings south
of I-90 on Thursday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
425 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-090930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
425 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight. A few
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe,
with hail to the size of half dollars and brief gusty winds. Funnel
clouds and landspouts are also possible. Some storms may contain
locally heavy rainfall which may create ponding of water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Brief heavy rain is possible early Thursday. Breezy winds expected
Friday with gusts to 35 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.