Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

279 
WWUS53 KFSD 070117
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

MNC083-101-070127-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240707T0145Z/
Lyon MN-Murray MN-
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON AND
NORTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4430 9559 4420 9559 4419 9546 4399 9582
      4407 9592 4438 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 227DEG 31KT 4418 9567 

$$

SST

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
558 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through this
  afternoon to mid evening, diminishing again by midnight
  tonight. A few strong to severe storms are possible with large
  hail and damaging winds the primary threats.

- Patchy fog again possible tonight-early Sunday. Widespread
  dense fog is not expected, but isolated visibility below a
  mile is possible.

- Unsettled weather continues early next week with spotty
  afternoon to early evening showers/storms Sunday-Wednesday.
  Severe weather is not expected.

- Cooler than normal temperatures for early July through the
  early part of next week, but trending closer to normal by the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Afternoon/Evening: Focus will be on the wave currently evident on WV
imagery diving through the central Dakotas as of early afternoon.
This will be entering an environment characterized by MLCAPE values
of up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While deep layer shear is weighted south of
I-90 away from the better dynamics, up to 30-35 kts of EBWD is
progged north of I-90 and may allow for some organization of
thunderstorms. Additionally, fairly straight hodographs may allow
for splitting cells in any of this more organized activity. Large
hail up to ping pong ball size appears to be the primary risk with
wind gusts up to 60-65 mph possible with an occasional sounding
showing a modest dry subcloud layer and DCAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg. While an extremely low potential, a muddled low level
wind profile can at times lend to a low end landspout potential
with non-supercell parameter between 0.5-2 through the deeper
convergence zones.

In terms of rainfall, PWATS around 1.25 and 850 mb dewpoints
exceeding 10C will likely allow for efficient rain rates in any
healthier thunderstorms, although activity looks progressive enough
to prevent any widespread issues. HREF PMM/LPMM do show the
potential of localized pockets to around 2-2.5 inches with most
locations less than that. While unwelcome in flood stricken areas,
don't suspect we'll see any significant river rises from the more
isolated amounts and instead focus for any problems will likely be
in urban and poor drainage areas.

Overnight: As has been the case the last couple of mornings, very
well could see some patchy fog in low lying areas. Have introduced
this mention into the forecast through the daybreak hours Sunday
morning.

Sunday: Another day where forecast soundings suggest the potential
for some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
early evening hours as the cooler upper low swings overhead. Lack of
a stronger wave likely keeps activity non-severe and less organized
than today. Will keep chance level POPs in the afternoon and early
evening hours. Temperatures again in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Monday thru Wednesday: No real significant changes for the early to
mid work week as occasional weak waves slide down the backside of the
upper trough lending to occasional afternoon/evening shower chances.
At this time, the focus looks to be near and east of I-29.

Thursday and Friday: West coast ridging tries to build eastward and
should provide for drier conditions and warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area through
the evening, and there will be a risk of isolated severe storms.
Thunderstorms end from west to east by late evening, and with
very light winds there will be a possibility of patchy fog.
Additional shower and thunderstorm development will be possible
on Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kalin
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-071745-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening, with a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms.
Isolated large hail up to ping pong ball size, along with damaging
winds gusts to 65 mph are the primary threats. While unlikely, a
landspout cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rain is also possible
with stronger storms. The strongest storms are expected between 3 pm
and 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Chances for mainly afternoon to early evening showers and storms
continue early next week, Sunday through Tuesday. While isolated
lightning is a threat with any storm, severe weather is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Any reports of severe weather are
appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
523 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Tracy                   44.24N 95.62W
07/06/2024  M54 MPH          Lyon               MN   AWOS

            A 54 mph wind gust was recorded at the Tracy
            Municipal Airport.

&&

IG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
558 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Hail             3 NE Badger             44.51N 97.17W
07/06/2024  E1.00 Inch       Kingsbury          SD   Public

            Received a public report of quarter size.
            Time was estimated using radar.

&&

IG