Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

440 
WWUS83 KFSD 061708
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1108 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

SDZ038>040-050-052>070-070000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240307T0000Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
1108 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, 
  Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, 
  Davison, Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, 
  Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton and Clay.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ071-072-080-097-098-070000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0004.240306T1800Z-240307T0000Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Pipestone-Rock-
1108 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN 
MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone 
  and Rock.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

060 
WWUS83 KFSD 061814
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1214 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020-021-MNZ081-089-090-SDZ071-070000-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240307T0000Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Union-
1214 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST 
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 6 PM CST this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola, Dickinson, Sioux, 
  O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth and Cherokee. In Minnesota, 
  Cottonwood, Nobles and Jackson. In South Dakota, Union.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ038>040-050-052>070-070000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240307T0000Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
1214 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, 
  Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, 
  Davison, Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, 
  Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton and Clay.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ071-072-080-097-098-070000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240307T0000Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Pipestone-Rock-
1214 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN 
MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone 
  and Rock.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

169 
WWUS83 KFSD 062358
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
558 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

SDZ038>040-050-052>070-070100-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240307T0000Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
558 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

With decreasing winds and rising humidity, the Red Flag Warning
will be allowed to expire. Continued improvement in conditions
are expected through the evening hours.

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020-021-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
SDZ071-070100-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240307T0000Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Union-
558 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

With decreasing winds and rising humidity, the Red Flag Warning
will be allowed to expire. Continued improvement in conditions
are expected through the evening hours.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1012 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire danger will be possible Wednesday
  along and west of I-29.

- More focused precipitation chances (20-50%) return Wednesday
  night as a cold front dives southeastward across the region.
  Accumulations looks to remain less than a tenth of an inch
  with this first wave.

- Low to medium (30-60%) chances for precipitation Thursday
  night into Friday along and south of Highway 20. Expect this
  precipitation to begin as rain and transition to wintry
  mix/snow near sunrise Friday morning. Accumulations should
  remain light.

- Another warm weekend is in store as temperatures climb back
  into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, with latest
observations showing mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Southwesterly winds during this time have
also been a bit breezy, with gusts ranging between 20 to 30 MPH.
That being said, should see winds quickly diminish as we approach
sunset and remain light and variable through midnight. Direction
then shifts southeasterly for the remainder of the overnight period,
as cloud cover begins to increase ahead of our next system. As such,
expect lows to remain on the milder side, as temperatures only fall
into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

As alluded to in the previous discussion, expect active weather to
return for the latter half of the work week as two waves take aim
the region. We'll start Wednesday off on a dry and breezy note ahead
of an advancing cold front and upper level trough along the
International Border. Currently have southerly winds between 15 to
25 MPH, with gusts between 25 to 40 MPH. Thus, with the aid of WAA,
have highs rising into the 50s to lower 60s, with the warmest values
along the MO River Valley and west of the James River. Do think it's
worth noting however, that the combination of breezy winds and
dewpoints in the upper teens to 20s will result in elevated to
critical fire danger along and west of I-29. So, we strongly
encourage you to exercise caution with any activity that may cause a
spark, as fires can spread quickly under these conditions! Look for
gusts to gradually subside through sunset as the aforementioned sfc
cold front dives across the region. As a result, expect
precipitation chances (20-40%) to increase during this time and
winds to shift to the northwest in the wake of FROPA.

Thursday, a second wave moves northeast out of Colorado and New
Mexico. Ensemble confidence has held steady that our southern
counties will see some precipitation beginning late in the evening
out of the low pressure system that develops. Probability of 24 hour
precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1" continues to be low to
medium (30-60%) and increases as you move south. Overall this run
ensembles have tightened the northern precipitation gradient,
reducing how far north precipitation will intrude. At this time,
precipitation looks to remain along and south of the Highway 20
corridor. BUFKIT soundings from the NAM and GFS indicate deep
saturation through the column. The temperature at precipitation
onset will be above zero and remain so for most of the event.
Just before sunrise the wet bulb falls below zero and rain
should change to a wintry mix/snow. Since most of the
precipitation is expected to fall as rain, do not expect totals
to be much more than a dusting to a quarter of an inch.
Precipitation tapers off through the early afternoon and clears
out by Friday afternoon. Please note, there is enough variance
in solutions that changes in track and totals are still
possible. Highs for Thursday will be in the 40-50s, with lows in
the 20-30s.

Friday afternoon, winds are northerly and begin to increase as CAA
on the back side of the low pressure boosts surface winds. Gusts
will be greatest along and south of Highway 20 where they could
reach up to 30 mph. Gusts will be 20-25 mph for everywhere else.
Highs will be limited thanks to the cold air coming down, generally
in the 40s with lows in the 20s. Winds calm quickly after sunset.
For the weekend, winds will be light with gusts in the teens.
Saturday begins another warming trend with highs in the 40-50s,
followed by 50-60s Sunday, and widespread upper 60s Monday. Relative
humidity will be low, generally in the 30% range at peak afternoon
heating. As temperatures climb and with continued dry conditions,
even with light winds, fire danger will continue to be a concern.
Please continue to use caution with sources of sparks and report any
fires immediately.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Winds are currently transitioning to become out of the south-
southeast by the early/mid overnight hours. A few hours of LLWS are
expected for areas along and west of the James River Valley from
0400-1000 LST as a strong low-level jet moves overhead, with LLWS
conditions weakening as surface wind speeds increase. Winds will be
gusting into the 30s and lower 40s by the mid-morning hours,
particularly for those west of a Windom, MN to Sioux City, IA line,
while areas east of that line in the 15-25 mph range. Chances for
light rain/snow return to the region during the evening and
overnight hours into Thursday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SST/AJP
AVIATION...APT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
812 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-070215-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
812 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More mild and breezy conditions are expected for Wednesday, where
winds will be gusting 25 to 45 mph, highest west of I-29. In
combination with relative humidity values below 30 percent, this
will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
across the area. Most critical fire weather conditions look to occur
west of I-29, where winds will be strongest. However, increasing
cloud cover could slightly decrease fire weather potential. Pay
attention to any activities that may spark a fire.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.