Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

659 
WWUS83 KFSD 291643
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1043 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-010100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0002.240229T1800Z-240301T0100Z/
Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-
Dixon-Dakota-Yankton-Union-
1043 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

197 
WWUS83 KFSD 010034
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
634 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-010145-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240301T0100Z/
Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-
Dixon-Dakota-Yankton-Union-
634 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER 
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...

While relative humidity values remain near critical levels, winds
are beginning to wane, ending the critical fire danger risk. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1027 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns move to the forefront for Thursday as
  very strong south winds develop coupled with dry air and dry
  fuels especially south of I-90 and near and east of I-29.

- Temperatures warm Thursday, then warm even more Friday through Sunday.
  There will be a cold front just north of the area Friday
  night into Saturday and near and west on Sunday morning which
  will bring a bit of a decrease in confidence in these areas
  for very warm temperatures this weekend. Current projections
  bring the cold front through on Sunday mid day. Occasional
  fire weather concerns exist each day.

- Another system will move through the Northern Plains on Monday
  with rain and snow possible. At this time only minor amounts
  of precipitation are expected. For now the cold air behind
  this system does not look as cold as the system today.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

A ridge of high pressure quickly moves east tonight as a trough of
low pressure develops across the Western High Plains. This will
allow for strong southerly gradient to develop through the night
which should allow for evening lows in most locations with rising
temperatures later tonight.

Thursday morning will start out seasonally mild and warm nicely
through the day. 0.5" to 1.5" of snow will need to melt which will
likely slow down the warming as well as a somewhat strong inversion
to start the morning. With this in mind, afternoon relative humidity
will likely fall to 20 to 30 percent most locations. Coupled with
wind gust of 30 to 40 mph this could create some fire weather
concerns. The strongest winds should be near and east of a Yankton
to Windom line. Will issue a fire weather watch for mainly northeast
NE and northwest IA where the best chance exists for wind gusts over
30 mph and relative humidity below 25 percent.

Strong southerly flow will continue Thursday night into Friday which
will bring some very mild lows from the mid 30s to lower 40s. With
the trough of low pressure settling into northern SD by late
afternoon surface winds will turn a bit westerly and should lead to
a very warm day. Expect highs into the 60s with a few 70s.

An upper level jet should still eject to the north of the are Friday
night which will allow a cool front to sag south towards I-90 and
possibly farther south. The models are not quite as boisterous with
the upper ridging behind this jet so some concerns that areas north
of I-90 may not warm as much. Will aim for mid 50s along highway 14
and near 70 along the Missouri River into northwest IA.

An upper level trough digs across the Western High Plains on
Saturday night and ejects on Sunday. Record warm lows will be
possible on Sunday morning but with the faster cold front may not
hold through midnight. The models are a touch quicker with the cold
front Sunday, bringing it east of I-29 by 18z now. This means areas
west of I-29 will likely see falling temperatures through the day
while areas east of I-29 will see an early afternoon high with
falling temperatures. Still a few days out so just some trends for
now.

For now the better chances for rain and snow are Sunday night into
Monday but the impacts still appear minor. With the wave still
expected to eject to the north and east of the area, the cold
advection on Monday slows significantly and only a moderate cool
down is anticipated. It's possible that temperatures will remain
above normal even after frontal passage Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1026 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Southerly winds
remain elevated late this evening and through the overnight hours.
The low level jet (LLJ) is strengthening and is producing low level
wind shear (LLWS) along and south of I-90. As such, have included
LLWS in KFSD and KSUX's TAFs for the overnight hours. LLWS will
dissipate as mixing increases tomorrow morning. Southwesterly winds
prevail for the day tomorrow with gusts as high as 20-30 knots
expected. Gusts will remain elevated into tomorrow evening while the
LLJ restrengthens aloft. The LLJ will contribute to LLWS to finish
out the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Mild and windy conditions will develop on Thursday with afternoon
relative humidity falling to 20 to 35 percent. Southerly winds
will also gust from 25 to 40 mph. The strongest winds and lowest
humidity are most likely over parts of northeast Nebraska and
northwest Iowa. Friday will see warmer temperatures but winds will
not be quite as strong, but may still gust to 20 to 30 mph.

Additional concerns for fire weather will continue into the
weekend before a cold front swings through on Sunday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ070-071.
MN...None.
IA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Meyers
FIRE WEATHER...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
530 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-292330-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
530 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Fire danger increases for Thursday through the weekend. Warming
temperatures into the 60s and 70s, along with gusty winds and
decreasing humidity will result in near critical to critical fire
danger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.