Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
200 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
today, especially along and south of I-40. Over the weekend, a
downward trend in storm activity is expected for much of northern
Arizona, as a drier air mass moves in from the west. Accompanying
the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and
slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Outflows/thunderstorms now pushing south and/or
southwest of the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns this afternoon, about as
expected. Training could lead to Flash Flooding, especially south of
the Mogollon Rim. Increased shear and the dry layer presence aloft
may also lead to isolated larger hail development, again, most
likely south of the Mogollon Rim.

After a good chance of showers and storms today, look for a near
shutdown of monsoon activity through at least early next week with
any remaining activity being relegated to our east-central zones.

Saturday through Wednesday, the high pushes southward under the
influence of a passing trough to the north. Drier air will push
across the area with a near shutdown of showers and storms except
for the area along and south of a Heber to St. Johns line. The
approach of the trough will strengthen pressure gradients with
afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, gusting 25 to 30 mph on
Saturday/Sunday. From Monday into Wednesday, troughing will begin to
weaken and high pressure gradually reemerge with weakening pressure
gradients and associated afternoon winds. Look for slightly cooler
daytime temperatures for much of the period, as the influence of the
high aloft abates.

Thursday and the end of next week, forecast models show the last of
the Pacific Northwest troughs lifting and moving to the east with
the high amplifying back over the western states. If this pattern
emerges the door would once again open to moist low-level flow from
over the Gulf of California and thunderstorm outflow from over
northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona to push moisture back northward
across Arizona. However, any additional trough energy dipping down
from Canada would delay the northward shift of the high.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 26/18Z through Saturday 27/18Z...Outside of
convective activity, expect VFR conditions. From 19Z Friday-03Z
Saturday, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may produce brief MVFR and
gusty/erratic winds, mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor.
ISOLD and short-lived cells outside of that area. AWay from
storms/outflows, daytime sfc winds W-SW10-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/18Z through Monday 29/18Z...VFR conditions are
expected, aside from southern Apache County. Daily afternoon/evening
SHRA/TSRA is this area may produce localized MVFR conditions.
Daytime sfc winds W-SW15-25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...A drying trend for this
period. Any showers/ thunderstorms mainly confined to the eastern
Mogollon Rim/southern Apache County. Afternoon southwesterly winds
15 to 25 mph both days.

Monday through Wednesday...The drying trend continues, with minimum
humidity falling to 10 to 25 percent. Precipitation chances limited
to southern Navajo and Apache counties. Afternoon southwesterly
winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson/McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1211 PM MST Fri Jul 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Hail             2 ENE Downtown Flagstaf 35.20N 111.61W
07/26/2024  E0.50 Inch       Coconino           AZ   Public

            Half inch hail reported by the public and a
            NWS Employee.

&&

BEP