Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
339 PM MST Wed Aug 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the forecast period, along with near normal to
above normal temperatures and mostly light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed again
today across northern Arizona mainly over the higher terrain from
Flagstaff southeast to the White Mountains and over central
Apache/northern Navajo counties. Storms moved slowly to the
southeast today. A few of the storms produce hail up to an inch in
diameter and locally heavy rain. This activity is expected to
last into this evening. Storms are expected to last a little
longer into the evening from around Flagstaff and into Yavapai
County.

The persistent high pressure center over northern Arizona into
Nevada and Utah will remain nearly stationary through Friday with
an easterly wave moving westward through Sonora. This will
continue to bring active weather across much of northern Arizona
on Thursday and Friday.

On Saturday, a trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific
Northwest looks like it could push the high pressure eastward.
This would bring slightly drier air over Arizona for a down-turn
in storms...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture looks to increase again over Arizona on Sunday well into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 08/00Z through Friday 09/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast. Look for scattered
showers/thunderstorms through 03Z with brief MVFR/IFR conditions
in stronger storms. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will continue
across the area from KINW to KPRC until around 09Z. Winds will
generally be light but storm outflows could gust up to 35 kts.
A similar round of showers/storms is set for Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Friday 09/00Z through Sunday 11/00Z...Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and evening
resulting in brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Outside of
erratic outflow winds from storms plan on west to southwest
winds at 10-15 kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Storms will be
capable of brief heavy rainfall and erratic outflow winds of up to
40 mph. Temperatures remain near average with westerly winds, 10 to
20 mph, each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...The moderate to active monsoon pattern
continues with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely each
day. Main threats include lightning, small hail, brief heavy
rainfall, and erratic outflow winds. Outside of any outflows from
storms, anticipate southwest winds, 10 to 20 mph, each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

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