Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1138 AM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy
afternoon winds. Winds will continue to increase, peaking on Sunday,
and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated showers near
the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas remaining dry.
Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm back up through
midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second
half of the week but conditions will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The current forecast package is in good shape with
no morning update. It will be breezy today but quite windy on
Sunday. We will likely be hoisting a High Wind Warning (gusts over
60 mph) on Sunday roughly for the area between Flagstaff, Meteor
Crater and Cameron. Much of the rest of the area will be looking
at a Wind Advisory with gust of 40 to 50 mph. Fire weather
concerns will be limited due to fairly recent precipitation and
elevated relative humidity values. The exception will be the area
surrounding St. Johns in east central Arizona where low relative
humidity, strong gusty winds and drying grasses will meet the
criteria for a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 04/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z...Expect
generally VFR conditions into Sunday. South-southwest winds
gusting 25-35kts will persist overnight and increase Sunday
morning with gusts 40-55kts by 18Z Sunday. A few -SHRA possible
north of I-40, with areas of MVFR visibilities due to blowing dust
developing at KINW-KSJN-KRQE on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions on Sunday with a few -SHRA north of I-40 through
Sunday afternoon. Periods of MVFR visibility due to blowing dust
are expected at KINW-KSJN-KRQE Sunday afternoon. Strong southwest
winds 25-35 kts with gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday afternoon with
moderate turbulence. Winds decrease Sunday night into Monday, with
winds to 20-30 kts from the west by Monday with widespread VFR
conditions returning through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry and mild conditions are
expected today with increasing southwest winds with gusts 20 to 35
mph. Winds will be much stronger on Sunday, with gusts of 40 to 55
mph by late morning with favored downsloping areas gusting to 65
mph. Minimum RH on Sunday will be 10 to 20% across northeast Arizona
which will lead to periods of critical fire weather conditions over
NE Arizona Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...West-southwest winds will remain elevated
each afternoon through Wednesday with widespread gusts of 25 to 35
mph. Expect afternoon min RH of 10 to 15%, and overnight RH of 25 to
45%. No precipitation is expected through next week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
AZZ004>017-039-040.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ114.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff