Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
522 PM MST Sun Aug 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon continues with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the week. Temperatures will remain above
normal, with light winds outside of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms fired early over higher terrain today, as
expected. Convection now slowly working west and south, along
outflows, as expected. Vertical development does not favor hail
production, but isolated stronger cells may produce localized
flooding. Nocturnal activity is unlikely.

The strength of the high pressure center is a limiting factor for
stronger storm development, especially for the northern zones. This
will allow for some minor heat issues, mainly in areas that do not
see rainfall, as we continue to remain above normal for the next few
days.

By Tuesday or Wednesday, a series of easterly waves and possible
tropical activity over the Gulf of California will likely lower
hghts, induce moisture surges and cause an increase in Monsoon
activity. The Wednesday through Saturday time frame may be very
active, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 05/00Z through Tuesday 06/00Z...ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA through 03Z and then again 17Z-00Z especially over the
higher terrain. Brief periods of MVFR conditions and gusty,
erratic winds near +RA/TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with SW winds
5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 06/00Z through Thursday 08/00Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
each day mainly 19Z-03Z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds near +RA/TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected with winds W 5-10 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain above
average, with light winds outside of thunderstorm activity.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect an uptick in activity during this
period. Expect scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms each day. Daytime temperatures will drop a bit
closer to normal, with light winds outside of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff