Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
425 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Over the weekend, a downward trend in storm activity
is expected for much of northern Arizona, as a drier air mass
moves in from the west. Accompanying the drier air will be locally
breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to slide south and east
toward NM and TX over the next few days as a trough moves by to
our north. Gusty southwest winds of 15-25 mph have developed today
across the northern 1/2 of the state as drier air filters in. This
pattern will continue to bring a drying trend to the region, with
the best chance for showers and thunderstorms over southern
Apache and Navajo counties well into next week. Elsewhere, storm
chances will be limited to mostly 20% or less, and even that
activity will be more high-based with gusty winds but little
rainfall. On Monday some of the guidance briefly indicates
slightly better moisture availability farther west into
Yavapai/Coconino counties so PoPs are closer to 20-30% there.

Toward the end of next week - much of the forecast guidance
shifts the high pressure center toward the four corners, resulting
in a better setup for moisture to move into our region. Storm
chances go up to 30-50%, though confidence in this pattern isn't
too high yet as it is still almost a week away.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 28/00Z through Monday 29/00Z...Mostly VFR
conditions will prevail under dry conditions. Isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA south of a KFLG - KRQE line, which could
produce very brief reductions in ceiling/visibility. Outside of
any storms, winds will be SW 15-25 kts during the daytime hours.
Winds decrease to mainly less than 10 kts after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Monday 29/00Z through Wednesday 31/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected through the weekend as a drying trend develops.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the White
Mountains each afternoon. Anticipate W-SW winds 15-20 kts in the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...A drying trend with
showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the Eastern
Mogollon Rim/southern Apache County on Sunday, with low storm
chances spreading westward toward Flagstaff by Monday. Afternoon
southwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph Sunday and 10 to 20 mph Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...The drying trend continues, with minimum
humidity falling to 10 to 25 percent. Best precipitation chances
in southern Navajo and Apache counties, with only slight chances of
high-based storms elsewhere. Afternoon southwesterly winds 10 to 15
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
704 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024

AZZ014-280245-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
704 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NEAR ST. JOHNS IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM MST...

At 703 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Johns, or 24 miles north of Springerville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Localized flooding possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Johns, St. Johns City Park, and Saint Johns Industrial Air Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 180 191 between mile markers 371 and 378.
 Highway 191 161 between mile markers 316 and 320.
 Highway 180 between mile markers 356 and 368.
 State Route 61 between mile markers 379 and 381.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 10948 3449 10951 3457 10945 3458 10909
      3431 10914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 278DEG 11KT 3448 10938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EFL