Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 PM MST Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as a moderate monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain above average through
the weekend with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms have developed again today over the higher
terrain, with somewhat greater coverage than yesterday. With the
weak steering winds, the slow-moving storms have the potential for
heavy rain and some local flash flooding this afternoon and
evening. The greatest instability (CAPE) will be along and just
south of the Mogollon Rim (again), and some storms will likely
build toward the greater instability in Gila and Yavapai Counties
later this afternoon against the generally southerly steering
flow.

Over the next couple days the strong ridge over the Great Basin
will slowly move westward, bringing the ambient moisture with it.
With this, we'll see little change in the overall convective
potential across northern AZ as the axis of the ridge settles in
to our west - but the distribution of the precipitation will
evolve as the steering flow slowly changes. While the details can
not be resolved at this time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should be expected each day through the forecast period, with a
continued threat of heavier precipitation from the Mogollon Rim
to the south with this pattern.

Under the strong ridge, very warm (even hot) temperatures are
forecast to continue into the weekend with maximum temperatures
running 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-July through Saturday.
We are just below our excessive heat criteria, but the accumulated
heat stress will continue to impact those in the valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 18/00Z through Friday 19/00Z...VFR conditions
mainly persist through the TAF period, minus brief MVFR conditions
in stronger storms. SHRA/TSRA activity will diminish through 06Z,
with only a few stray showers likely afterwards. Expect another
round of showers/thunderstorms after 18Z across much of northern
Arizona. Heavy rain, hail, and gusty/erratic outflow winds will be
the primary threats from storm development.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/00Z through Sunday 21/00Z...Expect daily
SHRA/TSRA chances mostly in the afternoon/evening hours. Gusty and
erratic winds likely from storm development, with NW winds
generally less than 15 kts otherwise. VFR conditions will persist
outside of MVFR conditions from showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Isolated to scattered showers
and storms (most numerous over the higher terrain) are expected each
afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail,
and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable
5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will continue each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds
generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above
normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff