Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2024

Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

June 25, 2024Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jun 25, 2024, 1:04 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 25, 2024, 1:04 PM MST (20:04 UTC)
Expired: Jun 25, 2024, 3:18 PM MST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 391 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -108 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1284 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 25, 10:20 AM MST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 10:20 AM MST, 2 hours 44 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity will
slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large-scale outflow moved across the state and into
Nevada overnight, ensuring another moist day. 12Z KFGZ sounding is
the most unstable and moist so far, there is very little to suppress
convection and we expect an early start. This deep/unstable profile
has a touch more shear when compared to yesterday and the threat for
severe (hail) should not be overlooked. However, the primary threat
is still heavy rain and slow-moving storms, that may lead to Flash
Flooding.

Adding a wrinkle to an otherwise standard, diurnally forced
convective forecast, is a well-defined MCV over the I-10 between
Phoenix and Tucson. This feature is progged to move into Yavapai
County this evening, potentially prolonging convection later into
the night. These features don't always pan out, especially if moving
into a worked-over airmass, but we will need to keep an eye on it.

Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward
on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our
north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you
may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit.

From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much
drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary
will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity
to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return
heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we
have seen for the last week.

No major updates planned this morning, perhaps we will tweak the
15Z-18Z PoPs a bit to reflect an earlier start, but that's about it.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 25/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z, SCT to
NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR.
Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/18Z through Friday 28/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z Wednesday and
Thursday, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will still produce
localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and
storm outflow. Storm activity primarily along and east of the I-17
corridor Thursday, shifting even farther east by Friday. Light winds
becoming SW10-20g25kts during the daylight hours for Thursday/Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue. Winds will mainly be driven by outflows.
Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and
gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent, with
good overnight recoveries.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
again Thursday, but the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon
Rim northeast and eastward. After Thursday, most of the central and
western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm
chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more
isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30
mph, each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 25, 10:01 AM MST, 3 hours 3 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1001 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Funnel Cloud     4 WNW Twin Falls        36.89N 109.15W
06/21/2024                   Apache             AZ   Trained Spotter

            DELAYED REPORT from June 21: Rotating funnel
            observed for approx 10 minutes with
            supercell thunderstorm. Almost touched the
            ground. Location estimated from landmarks.

&&

BAK

Local storm report, Jun 25, 10:35 AM MST, 2 hours 29 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1035 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Flash Flood      4 WSW Rough Rock        36.39N 109.93W
06/22/2024                   Apache             AZ   Public

            DELAYED REPORT from June 22. Report from
            from social media. Road from Rough Rock to
            Blackmesa washed out, with very large
            boulders blocking the road. Time estimated
            from radar data.

&&

BAK

Local storm report, Jun 25, 11:06 AM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1106 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     Hail             4 SSE Tolikan (Sweetwat 36.80N 109.40W
06/21/2024  E1.25 Inch       Apache             AZ   Public

            DELAYED REPORT from June 21. Large hail
            broke windows in and around Immanuel Mission
            School. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BAK

Local storm report, Jun 25, 11:20 AM MST, 1 hour 44 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1120 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Tolikan (Sweetwat 36.86N 109.40W
06/21/2024                   Apache             AZ   Public

            DELAYED REPORT from June 21. Several dirt
            roads washed out and overtopped from flash
            floods in the area...locations not specific.
            Time estimated.

&&

BAK

Local storm report, Jun 25, 11:27 AM MST, 1 hour 37 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1127 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSE Tolikan (Sweetwat 36.80N 109.40W
06/21/2024                   Apache             AZ   Public

            DELAYED REPORT from June 21. Strong
            thunderstorm winds blew roofs from
            structures around Immanuel Mission.
            Windblown hail broke windows. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

BAK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 24, 5:05 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	6 hr
Jun 24, 6:20 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		25 min
Jun 24, 6:47 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		28 min
Jun 24, 7:44 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	31 min
Jun 24, 8:06 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	22 min
Jun 24, 8:28 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jun 25, 12:43 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	83 min
Jun 25, 1:29 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	31 min
Jun 25, 1:40 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Jun 25, 1:44 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	31 min
Jun 25, 2:42 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	31 min
Jun 25, 4:07 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Gila, Navajo	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2024 Every flash flood warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.