Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

659 
WWUS43 KFGF 191600
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

NDZ006-007-014-015-200000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0003.241119T1800Z-241121T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-
Including the cities of Cando, Leeds, Devils Lake, Maddock,
Maida, Langdon, Considine, Fort Totten, Mount Carmel, Vang,
Minnewaukan, and Dresden
1000 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 
  8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce the visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-038-039-049-052-053-200000-
/O.EXB.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.241120T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen-South
Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East
Otter Tail-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Halstad, Lake Itasca, Wahpeton,
New York Mills, Malung, Bowesmont, Florian, Red Lake Falls,
Rutland, Lawndale, Clearbrook, Oakwood, Hatton, Crookston,
Grygla, Herman, Fosston, Elbow Lake, Forman, Leroy, Pencer,
Portland, Fargo, Fox, Espelie, Valley City, Hallock, Radium,
Akra, Dakota Junction, Lower Rice Lake, Walhalla, Enderlin, Ebro,
Kelso, Ashby, Stephen, Hillsboro, Grand Forks, Casperson, Wolf
Lake, Milnor, Fertile, Faith, Erdahl, McLeod, Thief River Falls,
Syre, Roseau, Long Lost Lake, Gatzke, Mahnomen, Henning, Erskine,
Waubun, East Grand Forks, Bagley, Park River, Perham, Roy Lake,
Argyle, Mayville, Cavalier, Warren, Gwinner, Fergus Falls, Hope,
Salol, Backoo, Karlstad, Rosewood, Finley, Flaming, Detroit
Lakes, Barrett, Lisbon, Twin Valley, Shoreham, Ada, Hadler,
Alida, Newfolden, Parkers Prairie, Roseville, Englund, Hayes Lake
State Park, McIntosh, Nash, Upper Rice Lake, Lancaster, Grafton,
Naytahwaush, Middle River, Drayton, Battle Lake, Breckenridge,
and Hoffman
1000 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM 
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 5 
  inches. Snow banding and elevation differences may result in 
  highly variable amounts over short distances. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph, primarily along and west of the Red River Valley.

* WHERE...The Red River Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and 
  west central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ024-026-028-054-200000-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.241119T2100Z-241121T0000Z/
Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Mcville, Cooperstown, Tolna, Fairdale,
Adams, New Rockford, Aneta, Lakota, and Lankin
1000 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Eddy, Nelson, Western Walsh, and Griggs Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

VG

761 
WWUS43 KFGF 200057
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

NDZ006-007-014-015-200900-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-
Including the cities of Maddock, Langdon, Fort Totten, Devils
Lake, Cando, Maida, Mount Carmel, Considine, Minnewaukan, Vang,
Leeds, and Dresden
657 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 
  8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce the visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-038-039-049-052-053-200900-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen-South
Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East
Otter Tail-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Enderlin, Argyle, Dakota Junction,
Hadler, Mahnomen, Shoreham, Englund, Fosston, Mayville, Ashby,
Alida, Warren, Syre, Casperson, Stephen, Lake Itasca, Lancaster,
Fergus Falls, Erskine, Akra, Milnor, New York Mills, McLeod, Ada,
Parkers Prairie, Bagley, Radium, Waubun, Lisbon, Faith, Henning,
Wahpeton, Espelie, Park River, Halstad, Drayton, Erdahl, Elbow
Lake, Naytahwaush, Red Lake Falls, Hillsboro, Walhalla,
Roseville, Hope, Nash, Ebro, Kelso, Crookston, Hallock, Grand
Forks, Backoo, Lower Rice Lake, Forman, Cavalier, Detroit Lakes,
McIntosh, Bowesmont, Long Lost Lake, Leroy, Battle Lake, Hayes
Lake State Park, Rosewood, Perham, Roy Lake, Grafton, Hoffman,
Salol, Roseau, Gwinner, Valley City, Lawndale, Upper Rice Lake,
Fox, Flaming, Grygla, Thief River Falls, Middle River,
Breckenridge, Portland, Florian, Pencer, Gatzke, Oakwood,
Karlstad, Newfolden, Rutland, Malung, Twin Valley, Hatton, Wolf
Lake, Finley, East Grand Forks, Clearbrook, Barrett, Fargo,
Herman, Moorhead, and Fertile
657 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 5 
  inches. Snow banding and elevation differences may result in 
  highly variable amounts over short distances. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph, primarily along and west of the Red River Valley.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ024-026-028-054-200900-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Lakota, Lankin, Aneta, Fairdale, Adams,
Mcville, Cooperstown, New Rockford, and Tolna
657 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Eddy, Nelson, Western Walsh, and Griggs Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

DJR

311 
WWUS43 KFGF 201017
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

NDZ006-007-014-015-201830-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-
Including the cities of Fort Totten, Dresden, Mount Carmel,
Devils Lake, Cando, Minnewaukan, Considine, Vang, Maddock, Maida,
Langdon, and Leeds
417 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow.  Additional snow accumulations up to 
  two inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-038-039-049-052-053-201830-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen-South
Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East
Otter Tail-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Nash, Radium, Bagley, Battle Lake,
Rosewood, Fosston, Portland, Elbow Lake, Bowesmont, Thief River
Falls, Waubun, Wolf Lake, Crookston, Detroit Lakes, Salol, Long
Lost Lake, Fox, Kelso, Flaming, Mayville, Twin Valley, Hoffman,
Englund, Clearbrook, McIntosh, Backoo, Hallock, Milnor, Alida,
Upper Rice Lake, Wahpeton, Enderlin, Casperson, Hayes Lake State
Park, Walhalla, Stephen, Perham, Hillsboro, Karlstad, Erdahl,
Grafton, Forman, Erskine, Gatzke, Middle River, Ashby, Valley
City, Shoreham, Hadler, East Grand Forks, Lake Itasca, New York
Mills, Oakwood, Leroy, Lawndale, Hatton, Malung, Dakota Junction,
Ebro, Finley, Warren, Parkers Prairie, Roseau, Breckenridge, Red
Lake Falls, Roseville, Fergus Falls, Cavalier, Lower Rice Lake,
Naytahwaush, Roy Lake, Faith, Drayton, Fertile, Grygla, Hope,
Newfolden, Rutland, Halstad, Lancaster, Ada, Florian, Gwinner,
Grand Forks, Herman, Park River, Akra, Argyle, Pencer, Lisbon,
Moorhead, Henning, Syre, Fargo, McLeod, Mahnomen, Espelie, and
Barrett
417 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations 
  between 1 and 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ024-026-028-054-201830-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Adams, Aneta, Cooperstown, Lankin, Tolna,
Mcville, Lakota, New Rockford, and Fairdale
417 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional snow 
  accumulations up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Eddy, Nelson, Western Walsh, and Griggs Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Riddle

800 
WWUS43 KFGF 201537
WSWFGF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
937 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

NDZ006-007-014-015-202345-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.BZ.W.0004.241120T1537Z-241121T0000Z/
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-
Including the cities of Cando, Devils Lake, Maida, Leeds, Fort
Totten, Minnewaukan, Vang, Mount Carmel, Considine, Maddock,
Dresden, and Langdon
937 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations up to 
  one inch and ice accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting 
  as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, and Towner Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and 
  blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. Gusty winds 
  could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, 
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with 
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are 
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-038-039-049-052-053-202345-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen-South
Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East
Otter Tail-Grant-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Drayton, Long Lost Lake, Backoo,
Walhalla, Bowesmont, Grafton, Salol, Perham, Middle River, Ebro,
New York Mills, Thief River Falls, Florian, Lake Itasca, Halstad,
Detroit Lakes, Nash, Park River, Erskine, Kelso, Red Lake Falls,
Hoffman, Fox, Espelie, Fosston, Upper Rice Lake, Wolf Lake,
Hatton, Erdahl, Akra, Warren, Shoreham, Moorhead, Cavalier,
Wahpeton, Grygla, Mahnomen, Hayes Lake State Park, Faith,
Flaming, Oakwood, Gwinner, Argyle, Bagley, Ada, Gatzke,
Lancaster, Elbow Lake, Syre, Alida, Lower Rice Lake, Lisbon,
Rosewood, Malung, Fertile, Casperson, Fergus Falls, Portland,
Mayville, McIntosh, Naytahwaush, Grand Forks, Hadler, Lawndale,
Roseau, Newfolden, Ashby, Finley, Hillsboro, Valley City,
Clearbrook, Roseville, Stephen, Dakota Junction, Radium, Parkers
Prairie, Barrett, Hope, Crookston, Waubun, McLeod, Fargo,
Henning, Enderlin, East Grand Forks, Breckenridge, Rutland,
Karlstad, Twin Valley, Englund, Pencer, Herman, Roy Lake, Forman,
Milnor, Hallock, Battle Lake, and Leroy
937 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and 
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. Gusty winds 
  could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NDZ024-026-028-054-202345-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Aneta, New Rockford, Fairdale, Lankin,
Lakota, Cooperstown, Tolna, Mcville, and Adams
937 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. Winds 
  gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Eddy, Nelson, Western Walsh, and Griggs Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday evening commute. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall overspreads eastern North Dakota and
  Minnesota tonight into Tuesday.

- Accumulating snow and gusty winds will bring winter impacts
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Uncertainty still exists in the severity and location of winter
  impacts, with the main uncertainty tied to the strength and
  track of the system.

- Highest chances to receive winter storm impacts are still over
  the Devils Lake region, but expanded this a bit on the eastern
  and southern edges to encompass a slightly wider area for the
  uncertainty of the snow/wind/blowing snow potential.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Rain continues to spread north and radar returns have now
reaches the Highway 2 corridor. Minor near term adjustments were
made to capture current timing coverage, otherwise forecast
remains on track for the rest of the evening into the overnight
hours. No changes at this point for the ongoing Winter Storm
Watch, with only some new data just now starting to roll in and
decisions on upgrades (or not) being held off until later
tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 725 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Forecast is on track, with few adjustments needed during this
update cycle in the near term. Rain as spread into the southern
Red River Valley and west central MN (surface obs 3-6sm where
returns are 35dbz+ on radar). This matches the timing/coverage
progression from HREF and current forecast well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

...Synopsis...

The surface low associated with the next storm system is
currently over central Kansas, but its rain shield has moved all
the way north into southern Minnesota. Seeing light rain
reported already as far north as Redwood Falls Minnesota. This
surface low is expected to track northward to south central
Minnesota by Tuesday morning, then northward to around Winnipeg
by early Tuesday evening. Then it appears there will be at least
a 12 hour period (Tuesday night) that it remains in place,
before it begins to slowly weaken its grip on the Northern
Plains (as it exits to the east-southeast). 500mb ridging builds
in behind this system for late week into the weekend, with
a weak clipper system possible late weekend into early next
week.

...Rainfall tonight into Tuesday...

As the surface low over Kansas lifts into south central
Minnesota by Tuesday morning, a strong southerly moisture surge
will continue to stream northward through Minnesota. Have been
looking at a widespread wetting rain across the entire FA for
tonight through Tuesday. The latest NBM shows almost a 100
percent probability for rainfall amounts over 0.50 inches east
of the RRV to about a 70 percent chance to the west.
Probabilities for 1 inch or more of rainfall have shot up to
around 70 percent east of the RRV, but that tapers off quickly
to the west of the Valley. So quite a bit of rain is anticipated
over the next 24 to 30 hours.

...Winter impacts Tuesday into Wednesday...

As the surface low lifts through the eastern FA on Tuesday and
tracks toward Winnipeg, there should be a transition from rain
to snow in some areas. This should occur first across the Devils
Lake region, but the latest HREF is showing a potential change
over in the "higher" elevations west of the RRV from Finley to
Walhalla North Dakota. Looking at individual model soundings,
many are keeping it fairly warm through this time period, so am
more confident in the earlier change over across the Devils Lake
region, rather than further east. Wind speeds increase during
the day Tuesday, especially along and south of a Devils Lake to
Fergus Falls line. The snow combining with the wind should begin
to create some visibility problems. The probability for more
than 6 inches of snow decreased somewhat today, but remains the
highest across the Devils Lake region. Basically it now shows
about a 50 percent probability in the DL region for the 6 inches
or more, with the highest potential right around the Turtle
Mountains. The slightly further north surface low track, to
around Winnipeg, may play partly into this. The only other
change this afternoon was seeing probabilities for 4 inches or
more of snow increase just east of the RRV.

...Uncertainty in the strength and track of the system...

This storm system has always appeared to be one moving
northward out of north Texas, combining at some point with
another wave out of Canada. Dealing with wave interactions is
always tricky, and that remains the case with this storm
system. If the surface low holds longer north of the Canadian
border, it is possible more of the snow will hold to the north
as well. If more cold air can get drawn into it, more snow could
still fall across the Devils Lake region. In addition to the
above mentioned uncertainties, there is also the question of how
low visibilities will get with the wind driven snow. The
current wind forecast for the Devils Lake through southern RRV
(higher wind corridor), still looks to have a gust potential to
40 to 50 mph.

...Kept the Winter Storm Watch but expanded it slightly...

With the high amount of uncertainty, did not want to switch to
warnings quite yet. However, did want to expand the watch area
slightly. With the strong wind potential and slightly below
warning criteria snow a little broader, went ahead and expanded
the watch to include a few more counties to the south and
east. At some point, will also need a Winter Weather Advisory,
but felt that could wait at this point too.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Rain and MVFR stratus continues to spread northward, with
visibilities in moderate rate below 6sm at times. There is
still a strong signal for IFR ceilings to develop tonight and
persist through at least midday as low level moisture increases
and high resolution models still show IFR vis at times possibly
due to additional light fog development with rain. Rain snow
transition may occur by late Tuesday morning at KDVL, however
there may be a lull in precipitation (or precip rates) during
the afternoon before a secondary region of precipitation and
rain to snow transition occurs Tuesday evening across the
region. Winds eventually shift to the west and increase as the
low pressure system evolves over our region and this could
result in blowing snow while new snow is falling (chance better
after 00Z).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
409 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-
038-039-049-052-053-192215-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
409 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Widespread rainfall will overspread eastern North Dakota and
Minnesota tonight into Tuesday. Accumulating snow and gusty winds
will bring winter impacts Tuesday into Wednesday. Uncertainty
still exists in the severity and location of winter impacts, with
the main uncertainty tied to the strength and track of the system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054-192215-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh-
409 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Winter storm watch in effect Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday for
heavy snow potential along with wind gusts of 45 mph or higher.
This will create hazardous travel Tuesday night and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ005-006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032-040-192215-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-East Becker-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
409 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Widespread rainfall overspreads eastern North Dakota and
Minnesota tonight into Tuesday. Accumulating snow may bring
winter impacts Tuesday into Wednesday. Uncertainty still exists in
the severity and location of winter impacts, with the main
uncertainty tied to the strength and track of the system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.