Tornado Warning 6, NWS Grand Forks, ND

385 
WWUS53 KFGF 041738
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNC107-119-041800-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240604T1800Z/
Norman MN-Polk MN-
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL NORMAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...

At 1237 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Fertile, or 40 miles southeast of Grand Forks,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Fertile, Mentor, Maple Bay, Beltrami, Melvin, and Dugdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4739 9638 4751 9655 4755 9652 4776 9624
      4764 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 216DEG 33KT 4755 9637 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Lee

534 
WWUS53 KFGF 041756
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNC107-119-041806-
/O.EXP.KFGF.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240604T1800Z/
Norman MN-Polk MN-
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORMAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
POLK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 100 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4739 9638 4751 9655 4755 9652 4776 9624
      4764 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 234DEG 30KT 4764 9619 

$$

Lee

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1024 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon. Isolated
  severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest Minnesota from
  12 pm to 5 pm, with up to 1 inch hail, wind gusts up to 60
  mph, and tornadoes.

- 40 to 50 mph wind gusts with additional showers and
  thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 35 to 45 mph
  wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Initial morning shower activity has begun to clear with a few
rumbles of thunder still seen across northwest MN. the cold
front is now to the Devils Lake/ Jamestown line with an arrival
in the valley by noon. Clouds are clearing across northwest MN
so expecting intensification to severe thresholds by 1 pm with
all hazards possible.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Scattered showers continue this morning still slowly moving
northeast. Another wave will make its way through our area this
afternoon and will mostly impact our Minnesota counties. There's
still a moderate amount of cloud cover that may hinder our
Severe potential this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Synopsis...
The expected 700/500mb wave, 850/700mb warm advection, and a
strong low level jet are currently providing the main lift for
the complex of showers and storms moving into the western FA.
These features will continue to push slowly eastward today. The
upper low or lows will eventually set up across southern Canada
toward the Great Lakes, setting the stage for a windy Wednesday
and Thursday. There is much more uncertainty beyond that, but no
big precipitation producers appear at this point.

...This morning...
As of 2 am, there was a long line of showers and thunderstorms
extending from Western Manitoba all the way down into Nebraska,
moving eastward. It appears there must be a compact wave within
this area just northwest of Jamestown, where there seems to be
some counter-clockwise spin to the echoes. Believe this is why
the models have been showing the highest potential for
precipitation amounts of 1.00 inches or more, mainly north of a
line from Valley City to Baudette. The echoes are weaker and not
as widespread to the south of this line. As mentioned above, the
low level jet is pretty strong (35 to 50 knots) feeding into
this complex, and precipitable water values are around 1.3 to
1.4 inches. Not too much instability around for this time of the
night, but will continue to monitor this area.

...This afternoon...
As mentioned yesterday at this time, there is a conditional
threat for severe storms east of the Red River Valley, mainly
from 1 pm to 4 pm this afternoon. The main hazards would be hail
up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. It is conditional, as
there is a lot of shower/storm activity going on now (with thick
clouds too), which will continue through the morning. If some
decrease to the clouds can occur later this morning into the
early afternoon east of the Valley, some better instability
could develop. As it stands, some of the CAMs are indicating
afternoon highs to the east of the Valley approaching the upper
70s to around 80, with surface dewpoints climbing to the mid
60s. This is definitely the high end though, even more so if
the clouds/rain hold down any heating there. So the two
scenarios for today (which seem to be shown by the HREF UH
tracks), are first that the clouds/rain hold, and any severe
storms fire east of this FA...or second, a brief window of
decreasing clouds occurs and enough instability develops that a
few severe storms fire east of the Valley from 1 pm to 4 pm.

...Wednesday and Thursday...
There is still a consistent showing in the NBM and other
ensembles for the 700/500mb low to stagnate across southern
Canada to the Great Lakes. This sets the stage for a windy
Wednesday and Thursday, although Wednesday looks slightly more
gusty at this point. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday, with just showers Thursday. The most wind and
shower/thunder activity would be during the afternoons of both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Some light fog is starting to develop after rain showers have
moved over the TAF sites to create IFR conditions at some
airports. Given how thin the fog is I dont expect it to stick
around long. After 18z a stronger wave will move through our
area to produce more thunderstorms affecting KTVF and KBJI
primarily. There's a little uncertainty on whether KFAR and KGFK
will be in the path of the thunderstorms this afternoon due to
timing and storm path.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...MM/TT
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-050845-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning, with the main
hazard being lightning. There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for
severe thunderstorms from 1 pm to 4 pm, with hail up to 1 inch and
wind gusts up to 60 mph being the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

30 to 35 mph wind gusts with additional showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated Wednesday, with 30 to 35 mph wind gusts and
isolated showers on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054-050845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, with the main hazard being
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

40 to 50 mph wind gusts with additional showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 35 to 45 mph
wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.