Tornado Warning 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

096 
WWUS53 KFGF 140013
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
713 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

NDC077-140045-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-240714T0045Z/
Richland ND-
713 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY...

At 713 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Colfax, or 20
miles northwest of Wahpeton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Abercrombie, Walcott, Colfax, Dwight, and Galchutt.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 26 and 43.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4636 9711 4659 9708 4656 9675 4655 9675
      4654 9674 4653 9675 4651 9673 4649 9674
      4647 9672 4645 9672 4628 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 308DEG 23KT 4646 9695 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BH

157 
WWUS53 KFGF 140033
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
733 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

NDC077-140045-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-240714T0045Z/
Richland ND-
733 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
RICHLAND COUNTY...

At 733 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Galchutt, or 13
miles northwest of Wahpeton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Abercrombie, Dwight, and Galchutt.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 26 and 35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4635 9704 4644 9706 4646 9673 4628 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 329DEG 21KT 4636 9687 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing heat impacts will continue through early evening
  today. Impacts will be highest for heat sensitive or
  vulnerable groups and  anyone without effective cooling or
  hydration.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  across northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. A level
  1 out of 5 risk exists in northeastern North Dakota.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...Synopsis...

The large scale pattern will continue to feature mid/upper ridging
continuing over southwest US/Great Basin, while westerly flow in the
Northern Plains transitions to north-northwest flow behind a
mid/upper trough later Sunday night into Monday. The shift in flow
will bring much cooler (mild) temperatures back to the region, while
overall precipitation chances diminishing as drier/more stable air
moves in place. There could still be some fast moving waves in that
type of pattern but consensus shows very low potential for wetting
precipitation after Monday.

...Severe weather potential today and tonight...

Forcing mechanisms that could help initiate convection will continue
to be the biggest question which reflects the large spread in CAMs
coverage through this evening, lowering confidence in location of
impacts at any one location. Current features of interest are weak
low pressure near southeast ND, several older outflow boundaries
in MN and a well defined frontal zone (cold front)/theta-e axis to
our northwest where much more agitated CU has been in place and
farther north in Canada several supercells have developed. If
initiation takes place the environment features high CAPE, high
moisture. THere are reasonable amounts of effective and 0-3km shear
(30-35kt), and this would support severe organization and the
potential for supercells. Cold pool interactions would likely be
necessary for higher coverage/clustering and wet microbursts and
large hail may remain the primary threats though there are areas
where low level veering could support a limited tornado
threat. It is an event that could end up with isolated or very
little in the way of severe convection, or scattered/higher
impact severe impacts and ultimately we will need to monitor
trends through the evening. By later tonight an MCS may track to
our southwest, but there is much more consistency on this
remaining southwest of our CWA now (a few outliers show it near
southeast ND during the 3-6am period but these were older runs.

...Severe weather potential Sunday afternoon into Monday morning...

Unlike today, we actually have a period of organized forcing to
track as a mid/upper low and stronger cold front drop south into the
region out of Canada Sunday evening into Monday morning, with much
higher shear but not as extreme instability. The combination should
support the potential for supercells or clusters/MCS development.
As drier/more stable air quickly filters into the region behind the
front the severe threat may actually diminish based on latest
guidance as the frontal zone scours out our CWA. There could still
be a window for ongoing severe weather during the Monday morning
hours if the cold front is a bit slower in our east-southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As a shortwave trough moves through the FGF CWA, thunderstorm
development is expected, especially along the cold front the MN/ND
border, potentially impacting FAR and BJI TAF sites between 1Z-4Z.
Uncertainty in exact coverage and location remains. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals, but brief
MVFR and IFR conditions are possible as a result of these
thunderstorms. After this storm system moves through, winds are
expected to be light and variable through the rest of the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...KBJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032-NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>029-054-141300-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Western Walsh-
750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms today
into tonight. The main hazards will be hail to 2 inches, 70 mph
wind gusts.  Tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk for strong
winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ002-003-029-030-040-NDZ030-038-039-049-052-053-141300-
Norman-Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A heat advisory is also in effect for this afternoon with heat
indicies expected to crest 100 degrees.

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms today
into tonight. The main hazards will be hail to 2 inches, 70 mph
wind gusts. Tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk for strong
winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
606 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ006-132345-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
606 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Arnesen, or 32 miles northeast of Roseau, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arnesen, Lude, Birch Beach, Oak Island, Long Point, and Flag Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4933 9486 4932 9481 4929 9482 4918 9479
      4912 9477 4909 9475 4891 9469 4890 9509
      4892 9509 4890 9512 4890 9519 4900 9523
      4900 9515 4929 9515 4936 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 257DEG 19KT 4908 9515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Thomas