Tornado Warning 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

301 
WWUS53 KFGF 290354
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1054 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

MNC029-087-107-119-290403-
/O.EXP.KFGF.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240629T0400Z/
Norman MN-Polk MN-Mahnomen MN-Clearwater MN-
1054 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NORMAN...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...
NORTHERN MAHNOMEN AND SOUTHWESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
1100 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, hail and 
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4736 9620 4757 9621 4762 9549 4733 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 269DEG 45KT 4745 9563 

$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1012 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms this evening with the main
  threats being 1" hail and 60 mph winds.

- Another chance for severe storms Monday with a 15% outline
  from the SPC

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Thunderstorm development this evening has been limited in scope;
however, isolated supercells are producing very large hail of at
least 1.75 inches and damaging wind gusts to 72 mph. This threat
is expected to persist through the next couple of hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Thunderstorms continue to move into the Devils Lake Basin this
evening. Lightning activity has increased over the past hour as
the upper low approaches from the west. CAMs continue to
develop a few stronger storms over the next several hours, with
output being rather consistent in the last few model runs. Thus
far, mode seems to be favoring more clusters and fewer discrete
cells, although we still cannot rule that out at this point,
especially if storms are able to form along a stronger boundary
or axis of instability. As such, we are keeping a mention of
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a low chance for tornadoes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...Synopsis...

Current water vapor paints a well defined upper low centered in far
northeast Montana atop a 100kt jet streak and 50kt 500mb flow over
the Dakotas. Overnight convection has moved into northeast Minnesota
with an inverted trough extending back west towards the upper low
putting a deformation zone overhead between the two areas of low
pressure. Strong 925mb northerly CAA to the north of the trough
combined with westerly 700mb CAA to the south is resulting in a
strengthening frontal circulation which will be the focus for the
evening severe threat as the upper low drifts east with the upper
flow. Moving through the period we see the depart of  the upper low
and short term ridging with quick transition to SW/W flow aloft as
Central US ridging builds through next week though being centered
more over the gulf coast than the plains lowers confidence in how
much this will steer passing wave activity into our region vs
further south.

- Today's Severe Threat

Along the trough interesting shear profiles with N/NE surface winds
along the boundary and W/SW flow above 850mb will lead to straight
hodographs with RM vectors paralleling the boundary. The shear
overall along the front should favor discrete convection with MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/KG and bulk shear of 40-50 knots supporting a greater
than 1" hail threat. Also seeing support for weak funnels and maybe
a tor or two if things align but this is conditional on enough sfc
heating (should happen) and storm(s) existing in the vorticity rich
environment along the boundary (much more uncertain). Traveling
further south into southeast North Dakota weaker mid level winds
will favor upscale/linear growth along a cold front aloft with
steeper near sfc lapse rates and higher DCAPE leading to a
predominant wind and hail threat as opposed to the tornado potential
further north along the boundary extending from the near Minot
towards the central Red River Valley. Expecting storms to form as
early as 6pm in north central North Dakota and last until around
midnight as they track ESE through the valley. Lastly a purely
linear/cluster mode seems a low end probability with CAMs coming
into stronger agreement on storm scale evolution.

Breezy conditions as the upper low departs tomorrow with high
pressure emerging from the Rockies leaving the forecast area in 20-
25 kt northerly flow before winds calm as the high moves overhead
Saturday night. Ridging will be short lived however with SW flow
aloft on the back side of the ridge with southerly 850mb flow
developing across the northern plains in advance of a developing low
with agreement from global ensembles as 75% of members show a >35kt
850mb jet Sunday night across the Valley.

- Monday Severe Threat

The uncertainties with Monday are aplenty though the scenarios for
severe convection still exist. The main factor that will eventually
decide where the threat is and its severity will be the location of
the sfc low and attendant fronts. Currently ensembles show a low
somewhere in the vicinity of Lake Manitoba and Winnipeg with a cold
front extending south to the NE/SD border where the intersecting
trailing cold front and eastward extending warm front may be
located. Again this will very likely change though the current SPC
outlook seems to key off the potential for isolated convection off
the cold front in our area with more widespread convection with the
southern low where much better thermodynamics and instability will
exist. CSU ML does give a large 15% for much the high plains with a
60-65 CWASP values, 55-65 roughly correlates to an SPC marginal with
a slight in the 65-70 range.

Beyond Monday ensembles diverge with confidence decreasing. The main
points will be the continued presence of southwest flow aloft and
above average PWATs through the remainder of the week (average is
around 1" now). Overall look to see rain chances to end the week
with seasonal temps in the 70/80s for highs and 50s/low 60s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are possible heading through the
evening and early overnight hours. KDVL is expected to see VCTS
starting as early as 01Z as storms in central North Dakota move
to the east and southeast. Strong to severe storms are possible,
and could cause impacts to aviation. VFR ceilings are expected
to fall into MVFR and IFR categories during the overnight period
as an upper low brings low stratus to the area following this
evenings thunderstorms. There remains about a 20 percent chance
for LIFR conditions after 06Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
313 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
313 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening. The main hazards will be hail to the size of quarters, 60
mph winds, and a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Monday across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
840 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSE Cooperstown       47.42N 98.10W
06/28/2024  M59 MPH          Griggs             ND   AWOS

            AWOS station KS32 Cooperstown AP ND.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
927 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Mayville            47.50N 97.35W
06/28/2024  M72 MPH          Traill             ND   Mesonet

            Davis 1 W of Mayville reports 72 MPH gust at
            9:12 PM.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     Hail             Nielsville              47.53N 96.82W
06/28/2024  M1.75 Inch       Polk               MN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire Department in Nielsville reports golf
            ball sized hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mayville                47.50N 97.33W
06/28/2024                   Traill             ND   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports numerous trees down
            in Mayville, power outages, and cars under
            trees. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1017 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mayville                47.50N 97.33W
06/28/2024                   Traill             ND   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast Media relays video of a tree on a
            car in Mayville ND. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1020 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mayville                47.50N 97.33W
06/28/2024                   Traill             ND   Emergency Mngr

            EM reports trees down in Mayville. No
            injuries thus far. Power is out, empty grain
            bins are blown and blocking HWY 200.

&&