Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms with
  the best chance for severe weather this afternoon in Minnesota
  and this evening in North Dakota.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

...Synopsis...

The area remains within the northern periphery of a plume of
ample moisture, with PWATS of 1.5+" and dew pts in the low 70s.
SW flow aloft continues with a trough/low pressure system
stacked and traversing the northern portions of Alberta and
Manitoba over the next 24 hours. This feature is responsible for
a couple weak impulses embedded in the flow which may induce
convection over the next 24 to 36hours. This forcing combined
with the aforementioned moisture sets the stage for the
potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall this evening and
tonight...

ML CAPE expected to be at least 1500J/kg this afternoon and
evening from the southern valley up towards the Lake of the
Woods. Along this line represents the best chances for storms
but the window continues to narrow as lapse rates remain
marginal per mesoanalysis. Still potential exists within the
regime for heavy rainfall evidence in some pockets of 2+ inches
within the HREF probability matched means as the flow parallels
the stationary front and the potential for training occurs. It
does look like that potential are of training would be just
south of the areas hit hardest last night. Best chances for
severe will be wet microburst winds around 60mph and possibly
some hail up to golfball, but with lots of melting within the
moist column and relatively weak shear profiles 1" maybe more
likely.

Evolution of evening thunder moving in from the west will
continue to be monitored as CAM guidance remains mixed and the
forecast uncertain. Wind and heavy rainfall would be the primary
concerns for any storms that do move in from the west with the
most likley location seeing those impacts being the DVL basin.

...Sunday Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall...

Another round of the same impacts and hazards is possible but
one scenario pushes south of the FA as a complex develops and
dives southeast into NE SD in a higher number of CAMs. Other
CAMs do bring a complex across the area Sunday evening which
would bring the threat of wind and another round of pockets of
heavy rainfall, greater than 2+" for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

expecting VFR skies through the night with a chance for some
showers as the back edge of moist southerly flow shifts east
across the area, currently a few lightning strikes NE of DVL
with further development into the GFK/TVF/FAR areas in the next
6 hours. Showers and embedded thunder are the primary hazards
to aviation today with LLWS a secondary concern this now into
the morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MJB/TT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-282015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
305 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be 1.75 inches and
60 mph winds.

General storm motion...Moving toward the northeast at 40mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday...Level 1 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Flooding Risk.

Tuesday...Strong Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

NDZ016-054-280630-
Eastern Walsh County ND-Western Walsh County ND-
107 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WALSH COUNTY
THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Park River, or 19 miles west of Grafton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Park River, Hoople, Edinburg, Auburn, Nash, and Mandt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4854 9731 4828 9783 4844 9801 4854 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 237DEG 26KT 4842 9785

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DJR