Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through the night
  mainly in northwest MN, with nickel size hail and lightning
  the main threats.

- Mid to upper level smoke is expected to continue occasionally
  mixing to the surface. Air quality and visibility could be
  impacted at times.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Organized/severe convection had ended, as the front (reinforced
by cold pools from earlier convection) shifted south along with
the mid level wave. There is still enough elevated instability
and forcing to support scattered showers and non severe
thunderstorms mainly in northwest MN and while some guidance has
this ending or shifting over the next few hours, HRRR has
trended towards new development in MN late tonight as yet
another upstream wave rotates through north-northwest flow
through tomorrow morning. High low level moisture (particularly
from recent rain) appears to be supporting fog development in
regions of clearing in our north-northwest, with some smoke
also adding to vis reductions in some areas. CAMs are showing
potential for dense fog development over parts of northeast ND
by Tuesday morning, and this lines up with areas where vis is
already in the 1-3sm range. This update was made to reflect
these trends better for the overnight and Tuesday morning period
a bit better.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

A mid level wave interacting with a stalled frontal zone helped
organize convection, with a few supercells large hail to 2"
reported. The trend as thunderstorms have pushed south has been
for the severe threat to diminish in the northeast, however as
the wave has pushed south along with the thunderstorm clusters
this has allow the frontal zone to shift and we may still have
a region of effective shear in the 20-25 (close to 30kt) in the
Devils Lake basin near the theta-e gradient/region of higher
MLCAPE (2500-3500 J/KG). New updrafts developing in that region
have the potential through sunset to continue to become severe,
with hail 1-2" the main threat. Higher DCAPE greater than 1000
J/KG in the same areas does raise the potential for isolated
higher gusts with the tallest cores (60-70mph). As conditions
become elevated and the main area of forcing transitions south
we should see a weakening trend in storm intensity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

...Synopsis...

A weak shortwave has produced some pop up showers
along the International border near Bottineau and some in Pembina
County. Given the environment Cape is going to be around 1500 and
2000 allowing for plenty of energy for storms to consume. However
shear is still 15-20kts which suppresses the likelihood of severe
storms. However gusty winds and small hail can still be produced by
these stronger storms. Most of the cam guidance has the storms
dissipating by 03z but it would surprise me if we had lingering
showers until about midnight or 05z.

Tuesday another wave of vorticity possibly strong enough to produce
storms in the morning is depicted to move across the northern
planes. It's uncertain if storms will be produced or if the
atmosphere will be stable enough to not lift any moisture. Ridging
starts building in Tuesday evening suppressing any lingering
convection from the morning. With continued northerly flow aloft,
wildfire smoke is expected to persist at various points in the
column to include near-surface smoke. Air quality could be impacted
at times, with upstream observations suggesting minimal impacts to
visibility.

Wednesday through Monday

The ridging pattern builds over the Northern Plains as a Low
pressure starts to move in over British Columbia giving us some
warmer temperatures Wednesday through Monday. with the warmest days
expected to be friday and saturday given most ensembles depict
temperatures in the 90's. So afternoon convection may occur due to
the area likely to reach convective temperatures but the high
pressure ridge may also suppress the convection. After Saturday the
ridge begins to flatten as the Low pressure system moves across the
Canadian Provinces so temperatures should become more seasonable
come Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue mainly in northwest MN
early in the TAF period, though low chances may linger for much
of the TAF period in parts of MN. Visibility reduction due to
smoke and light fog are being reported in northeast ND and far
northwest MN and there is a signal for MVFR stratus and possible
MVFR/IFR fog development in the 11-15Z period Tuesday morning
with better chances at KDVL for lower vis. VFR should return mid
to late morning with daytime mixing. Winds remain light with
weak gradient and weaker winds aloft with a trend towards
prevailing northeasterly winds 5-11kt during the daytime period
Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
520 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
520 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated strong thunderstorms today could bring small hail and
brief gusty winds to portions of the area. Best chances are in
northwest and west central Minnesota.

Mid to upper level smoke is expected to continue occasionally
mixing to the surface. Air quality and visibility could be
impacted at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Saturday...Strong Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
752 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Hail             3 SE York               48.28N 99.53W
07/22/2024  E1.50 Inch       Benson             ND   Public

            Half dollar to ping pong ball sized hail.
            Covered about 15 to 20 percent of the
            ground. No wind.

&&

BR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
901 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ESE New Rockford      47.66N 99.05W
07/22/2024                   Eddy               ND   Public

            Many branches up to 12 inches in diameter
            down.

&&

BR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1028 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

MNZ001-014-230400-
Red Lake MN-West Polk MN-
1028 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN RED LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
1100 PM CDT...

At 1028 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huot, or 19 miles southwest of Thief River Falls, moving south at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Red Lake Falls, Gentilly, Huot, Dorothy, and Perault.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4776 9614 4776 9635 4772 9635 4769 9649
      4794 9651 4796 9634 4796 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 338DEG 18KT 4787 9638

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

MNZ002-003-230515-
Clay MN-Norman MN-
1137 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1137 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ada, or 29 miles north of Fargo, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Felton, Borup, Hadler, and Syre.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4703 9667 4733 9674 4739 9652 4714 9619
      4712 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 327DEG 12KT 4727 9661

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

MNZ002-015-022-230600-
Mahnomen MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-
1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NORMAN AND WESTERN
MAHNOMEN COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...

At 1225 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over northwestern White Earth Nation, or 43 miles north
of Detroit Lakes, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mahnomen, Bejou, Beaulieu, Rindal, Waukon, Ranum, and northwestern
White Earth Nation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4749 9628 4761 9616 4739 9572 4719 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 305DEG 20KT 4743 9606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

MNZ002-022-027-230645-
West Becker MN-Mahnomen MN-Norman MN-
107 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL NORMAN AND MAHNOMEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM CDT...

At 106 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Waukon, or 39 miles north of Detroit Lakes, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mahnomen, Waubun, Naytahwaush, Ogema, White Earth, Beaulieu, and
Faith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4715 9564 4715 9567 4713 9566 4702 9579
      4733 9626 4747 9611 4729 9555 4723 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 305DEG 19KT 4736 9610

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lynch