Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
413 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in the southern
  Red River Valley and west-central Minnesota this evening and
  overnight. Quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts are
  possible; however, heavy rain and flash flooding could cause
  more substantial impacts late Sunday night through Tuesday.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
  Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Large hail
  and torrential rainfall will be the primary threats; however,
  isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Synopsis...

Active weather prevails through much of the forecast period as
southwest flow dominates the H5 pattern across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the middle of next week. Moisture flow
into the region streams along an 850 to 700 mb jet with a source
region in southeast Texas. As such, PW values are expected to climb
into the 90th to 98th percentile across the forecast area today
through Tuesday ahead of an approaching theta-e gradient boundary.
H5 ridging over the Atlantic Coastal Plain will keep the overall
flow pattern moving very slowly, thus causing continued exposure to
southwest flow across the central and northern CONUS.

...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Today...

Remnant strong storms will continue to weaken this morning along a
line moving from west to east, mainly north of Highway 2. Additional
storms could form along this line later this morning or early
afternoon in the northern Red River Valley and northwest and west-
central Minnesota, bringing another chance for large hail and
isolated gusty winds. MUCAPE will climb into the 1500 to 2200 J/Kg
range, with 0-3Km shear up to 25 knots. Deep layer shear will
generally be around 40 knots. Hail up to the size of quarters will
be the primary threat. Most of this thunderstorm activity looks to
be east of the area by mid-afternoon as the theta-e gradient
boundary moves into central Minnesota by around 03Z.

...Scattered Severe T-Storms and Flash Flooding Mon and Tue...

Heading into Monday, another shortwave rides northeastward along
southwest H5 flow into the Northern Plains. Antecedent moisture
remains draped across the area with PW values well over the 90th
percentile. Storm development is expected during the evening hours
and into the overnight period into Tuesday morning. Looking at CAPE
and MUCAPE, the main concern will be elevated hail producing severe
thunderstorms and torrential rainfall. Isolated damaging wind gusts
are possible; however, this threat will likely occur very early
during the developmental stage of the strongest storms. Mean storm
motion along the boundary will support the training of storms along
the same area over a long period of time, perhaps several hours. As
such, flash flooding is a concern through much of the overnight
hours and into Tuesday morning.

Heavy rain continues eastward through the day Tuesday, with most
activity leaving the forecast area by mid afternoon.

...Active Pattern Continues with More Rain Possible...

Another trough traverses the flow heading into late next week. Early
indications allow for the mention of additional moderate to heavy
rain late Thursday through Friday. Details will become more clear as
we get closer, but pattern support remains somewhat strong for
impactful weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Low level clouds are moving into the Red River Valley and
through BJI this evening. MVFR conditions persist for GFK, FAR,
and TVF this evening through 12-14z. BJI is experiencing IFR
conditions and we are expecting improvements around 15-17z.
Thunderstorms will be moving into the DVL area overnight around
08-12z, with frequent lightning and potential for erratic wind
changes. Conditions are expected to clear out by 12-15z, with
winds turning from the south toward the west. DVL, GFK, FAR, and
TVF will see higher wind potential in the late morning through
early afternoon hours. Gusts up to 30kts will be possible in DVL
tomorrow afternoon and up to 25kts for TVF, FAR, and GFK.
Secondary system moves in end of the TAF period, with a BKN
cloud deck and further precipitation chances post TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Spender

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
054-170845-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Western Walsh-
341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in
northwest Minnesota. The main hazards will be quarter size hail
and damaging wind gusts.

General storm motion...Moving toward the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorms will move into southeastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota late Sunday night and
continue into Monday. A few isolated storms could again bring
some quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds gusts, but the main
impacts with this system will be heavy rain and flash flooding
into Tuesday.

Monday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Flooding Risk.
Tuesday...Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Flooding Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ003-024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-170845-
Clay-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in
southeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. The main hazards
will be quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

General storm motion...Moving toward the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is likely as well with a
moderate potential for flash flooding.

Monday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Flooding Risk.
Tuesday...Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Flooding Risk.
Friday...Strong Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

NDZ026>029-038-161000-
Griggs ND-Nelson ND-Steele ND-Barnes ND-Grand Forks ND-
402 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...
SOUTHEASTERN NELSON...GRIGGS...NORTHWESTERN BARNES AND WESTERN STEELE
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM CDT...

At 402 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Mose to near Jamestown. Movement was east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valley City, Cooperstown, Finley, Aneta, Wimbledon, Sanborn, and
Binford.

This includes Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 272
and 291.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4762 9849 4786 9760 4683 9806 4679 9844
      4698 9844 4698 9847 4732 9847 4733 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0902Z 253DEG 32KT 4757 9843 4687 9874

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lynch