Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Thunderstorms are popping up in central GA and north GA where the
sun was able to peek through the cloud cover today. Meanwhile the
metro down to a line from Macon to Columbus remains thunderstorm
free as cloud cover is just now starting to break up. CAMs are
indicating that these areas will still experience showers and
thunderstorms but they may be a bit more delayed than the north and
central Georgia thunderstorms. We still have plenty of sfc based
CAPE in the area with values around 2000-3000 with pockets of 4000
in south Georgia. This is expected to surge northward in a couple of
hours once cloud cover begins to clear. Effective Shear values
~20kts exist over central and north GA which is the main reasoning
for the storms ability to have upward growth and movement today and
also why they have become more organized. Low-level lapse rates on
the order of 7-7.5 degrees C/km are also evident across south and
central GA today which will lead to some of these storms being able
to produce cores that could produce pea to quarter size hail. We are
already seeing evidence of storms going up pretty efficiently today.
Lastly another parameter we've been watching is the PWATs. They are
currently at ~2-2.2" which is well above average for this time of
year. This is increasing the flooding threat for the area this
afternoon and wouldn't be surprised if we end up having to issue a
flash flood warning today. In combination with those lapse rates we
could also see the threat for downbursts today. Overall we are
looking at damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall that could lead to
flooding, hail up to an inch and frequent lightning as the main
threats for today.

Looking at the overnight, some lingering showers could hang on which
inc combination with earlier rainfall is likely to lead to lower
cloud bases ~500-600ft and lower visibilities down to ~3-4SM. With
not much movement with the stationary front parked over the metro,
these low clouds will have a hard time moving on tomorrow, resulting
in lower clouds as late as 11am-12pm before thunderstorm chances
pick up again for the afternoon centered around the frontal area.
One positive of this is temps have been lower today with highs in
the low to mid 80s expected and the same for tomorrow.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Key Messages:

     - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
       each day.

     - Slightly below normal high temperatures through the period.

A fairly stagnant upper level pattern is forecast to continue
through the period, with a ridge from the Atlantic to the FL
peninsula and a trough from the Great Lakes and OH Valley to the
lower MS Valley and E TX. This pattern keeps the area in moist S-SW
flow with occasional weak dynamic forcing focused mainly over the NE
portion of the area. This, in turn, translates into scattered to
locally numerous, mostly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The
potential for convection continuing further into the night or
developing before midday will be highest over the NW portion of the
area. Organized severe weather remains unlikely, but isolated storms
could become strong to briefly severe with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall the greatest threats. Even though coverage of convection
may be a bit less over the SE portion of the area, this will be
closer to the deepest moisture axis and slower storm motion. As a
result, although total rainfall through the period should be higher
to the NW, localized flooding may be more of a concern to the SE.

Lower heights due to the proximity of the aforementioned trough,
along with increased cloud cover, will keep afternoon high
temperatures mostly in the mid 80s across the N half of the County
Warning Area. Warmest temperatures are expected SE of Macon, closest
to the upper ridge position. /SEC

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Thunderstorms with a bit more organization have begun over north
GA but the cloud cover that lingered over the remainder of the
area will hold off thunderstorms for ATL until 19z. Still
expecting the IFR CIGs to enter the area ~8-9z and linger through
the morning before lifting to MVFR ~16-17z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  89 /  50  60  70  80
Atlanta         70  85  71  86 /  60  60  70  90
Blairsville     65  80  65  80 /  50  60  70  90
Cartersville    69  85  69  85 /  50  60  70  90
Columbus        72  90  72  91 /  50  60  50  90
Gainesville     70  84  71  85 /  50  60  70  80
Macon           70  91  71  91 /  40  60  50  80
Rome            70  85  70  85 /  40  60  70  90
Peachtree City  69  87  70  87 /  50  60  70  90
Vidalia         73  93  74  94 /  40  50  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Hernandez

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