Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Temperatures were slower to warm this morning due to persistent
cloud cover but are now on the rise with current readings in the low
to mid 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon and look to taper around sunset with the loss of heating.
Activity is expected mainly across Central Georgia as morning clouds
and some light showers seemed to have worked over the environment
across portions of North Georgia. Any storms that develop will have
the potential to be efficient rain producers -- PWs currently
sitting around 1.5-1.8 inches with forecast values through the week
at or above 2.0 inches. Some lower clouds will be possible
overnight/early Tuesday especially for areas that received rain.
Similar weather conditions are expected on Tuesday, though coverage
of convection will trend upward as moisture increases. Additionally,
increasing clouds and convection will keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler on Tuesday. No heat headlines are expected at this
time.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

By Wednesday morning, a potent shortwave embedded within large
trough over the Great Lakes and NE CONUS will be progressing to the
east. This system will drive a front towards the southeast that will
quickly lose steam as forcing for it moves out into the northern
Atlantic, causing it to stall over the southeast. With copious
moisture out ahead of the front, this stalled boundary will act as a
focus for repeated rounds of afternoon convection through the
weekend. One piece of uncertainty in the long term is exactly how
far south this front will progress, and where exactly it will stall,
all of which will have an effect on rain chances and where the
heaviest rain could fall. As such, some uncertainty is baked into
the precip chances (PoPs), especially in northern GA. Central
Georgia...it's probably gonna be a wet one into the weekend no
matter what. Going into early next week, some models show a tropical
wave moving across Florida and into Georgia. This doesn't look like
it will be anything more than an open wave riding around the Bermuda
high, but would certainly bring an influx of tropical moisture into
the area as noted by 2+" PWATs in some deterministic model runs. So,
even more rainfall chances into early next week as that boundary
begins to wash out. Current rainfall amounts are in the 2-4" through
all 7 days, though exact totals will be highly dependent on where
storms form, and higher totals will certainly be possible in
locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

Thunderstorms during the afternoons are not expected to create
widespread severe reports. As is usually the case in the summer,
shear is lacking with the jet parked well to the north of us and
effective bulk shear 25 kts or less. Still, forecast MUCAPE values
of 2000+ J/kg will allow for some decent updrafts that could fall
down with some force. Additionally, the front pushing in may allow
for some light organization of storms that would aid in congealing
outflows. Can't rule out some strong to severe wind gusts, though
once again this is not expected to be widespread on any given day at
this time.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions continue through the majority of the period. SCT
tsra has already begun to fire across Central GA this aftn.
Activity is expected to continue through the aftn and come to an
end around 02z. Winds will remain W/SW though with any storms
winds may become gusty and/or VRB. Low cigs will be possible
overnight/early Tuesday esp for areas that receive decent
rainfall. For now I have maintained SCT MVFR. Similar Similar
conditions on Tuesday with better coverage of tsra after 18z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on lower cigs overnight/early Tuesday
High confidence on all remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  74  94 /  30  50  20  70
Atlanta         74  93  74  93 /  30  60  30  80
Blairsville     68  88  68  87 /  20  50  20  90
Cartersville    72  95  72  94 /  30  60  20  80
Columbus        76  95  75  95 /  30  60  20  70
Gainesville     74  93  74  93 /  20  60  20  80
Macon           74  95  74  95 /  30  60  20  70
Rome            74  95  73  95 /  30  60  20  80
Peachtree City  73  94  73  94 /  30  60  20  80
Vidalia         76  95  75  94 /  30  50  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon and
will continue before diminishing this evening. The main threat
will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Very warm and humid conditions will result in peak heat index
values ranging from 98 to 105 degrees across much of the area,
with a few locations exceeding 105 degrees for a few hours this
afternoon, mainly south and east of Athens to Macon to Columbus.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be
expected Tuesday through Friday. Severe weather is not expected
at this time but heavy rain could elevate the localized flash
flood threat.

Very warm and humid conditions will persist through at least
Wednesday, with a good portion of the area experiencing afternoon
heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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