Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1017 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are continuing across a portion of north
Georgia this evening. Several storms have been strong to severe,
producing gusty to damaging winds and hail up to around 1.25" in
diameter per several public reports. Additionally, these storms
have been slow-movers and/or are back-building, so very heavy
rainfall has also been a concern. A Flash Flood Warning has been
issued for extreme southern Gordon, western Bartow, and eastern
Floyd Counties until 4 AM Tuesday. Across this area, 2.5" to 3.5"
of rain have fallen over the last 3 hours, and an additional 1" to
2" of rain are possible. PWAT of 1.8" or greater and 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE should keep showers and storms going for the next
few hours. Will need to monitor for additional heavy rainfall
across portions of north Georgia for the next few hours as soils
become saturated.

Martin

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key messages:

  - Heat Advisory is in effect for central and eastern GA until 8
    pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible.

  - Scattered afternoon and evening storms each day.

This morning started with a solid bank of low clouds SE of the
Atlanta metro area to Macon and points E. These clouds were very
slow to erode and thin, with some clouds making their way into the
metro area. As of this writing, most of these clouds had finally
lifted and thinned. However, this has thus far suppressed deeper
convection and delayed heating. Nevertheless, temperatures are
nearly caught up with the diurnal curve being followed by other
areas, and the Heat Advisory still looks to be on track.

Another consequence of the earlier low clouds has been that
initial shower and thunderstorm development has been on the
periphery of the early cloud area, probably due to both
differential heating and the skewing of the diurnal temperature
curve. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to eventually fill
in (especially from Macon to Athens), with scattered coverage
across much of the area. Thunderstorm activity may be a bit more
suppressed near and NW of the Atlanta metro area, due to
subsidence on the far NE periphery of Beryl.

As convection dies down overnight, lows will drop to the lower to
mid 70s across most of the area (with mid to upper 60s in the NE
mountains). The forecast for Tue will be very similar to today's,
with scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms across much of
the area. Daytime highs will also be similar, with perhaps a
slight uptick in heat indices. As a result, another Heat Advisory
may be necessary.

Thunderstorm activity during the short term is mostly expected to
remain below severe limits due to the limited shear, light winds
through most of the column, and the moist profiles. However,
strong to borderline severe winds are possible in the strongest
storms due to precip loading. Additionally, due to the high
precipitable water values and slow storm motion, locally heavy
rains are possible in the strongest or more persistent storms.
/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The beginning of the long term forecast period kicks off with the
remnants of Beryl skirting off to the northeast across the Ohio
River Valley. Northwest Georgia will experience the effects of the
drier air wrapping around the backside of the system first with
surface dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s. Despite the drier air
beginning to infiltrate the area, diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are still possible on Wednesday primarily for
locations across the northeast Georgia mountains the eastern
central Georgia. As this relatively dry airmass (at least by
summer standards) continues to progress southward Thursday and
Friday, most locations will experience dewpoints in the 60s. This
drier airmass will ultimately limit our afternoon rain and
thunderstorm chances to a slight to low end chance, which won't
exactly do us any favors regarding making any appreciable areawide
improvement on current drought conditions. However, the drier
airmass will at least give us a brief reprieve from widespread
triple digit heat index values on Thursday and Friday. As surface
moisture returns over the weekend and high pressure builds in
aloft, hot temperatures and triple digit heat index values return
as well as more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Daily
maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s will warm through the
weekend into the upper 90s for many locations. QPF through the
period has continued to plummet with areas east of the I- 75
corridor seeing up to 3 tenths of an inch with areas west
receiving as little as a trace. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in any thunderstorms that transpire this week.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Evolution of convection may be tricky this evening. TSRA across
central GA are weakening, but new storms have developed across NW
GA. Will need to monitor this activity in the event that it
impacts any of the Atlanta area sites over the next few hours.
Otherwise, may be contending with areas of low cigs/vis overnight
into tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Maintaining the previous shift's
TEMPOs for said restrictions. Winds will be light/VRB to calm
overnight, becoming SSW to SW at 3-8 kts tomorrow. Scattered
convection is expected again tomorrow, generally after 18z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of convection this evening and
coverage of cigs/decreased vis overnight/tomorrow morning. High
confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  75  93 /  40  50  30  50
Atlanta         75  93  75  90 /  40  50  20  40
Blairsville     69  88  70  84 /  40  60  50  50
Cartersville    72  94  73  89 / 100  60  30  40
Columbus        75  94  77  93 /  40  60  10  40
Gainesville     74  92  75  89 /  40  50  40  50
Macon           74  95  75  93 /  40  50  10  40
Rome            74  94  74  88 /  60  50  30  40
Peachtree City  73  93  74  91 /  40  50  20  30
Vidalia         75  94  76  92 /  40  70  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KAB
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
943 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
943 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms may continue across portions of north
Georgia past midnight. A few strong storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions
of the area each day. Coverage of storms will generally be
maximized during the afternoon and evening hours each day. The
risk for widespread severe weather remains low.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected across
portions of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1029 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

GAZ006-007-090300-
Gilmer GA-Fannin GA-
1029 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Gilmer and
southeastern Fannin Counties through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1029 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Roy, or near Ellijay,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
East Ellijay, Dial, Springer Mountain Shelter, Cartecay, Pisgah,
Stover Creek Shelter, Hurst, Roy, and Black Gap Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8417 3467 8414 3461 8419 3460 8419
      3462 8420 3460 8422 3460 8425 3457 8426
      3457 8430 3458 8431 3458 8433 3457 8433
      3457 8443 3474 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 258DEG 9KT 3467 8437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1055 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

GAZ006-007-090330-
Gilmer GA-Fannin GA-
1055 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Gilmer
and northeastern Fannin Counties through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1055 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Higdon, or near Blue
Ridge, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Mineral Bluff, Cherry Log, Higdon, Colwell,
Hurst, Loving, and Epworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8414 3477 8442 3491 8451 3499 8434
      3499 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 250DEG 8KT 3485 8440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH