Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
228 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Diurnal convection continues to be the norm for the short term.
Severe storms are not expected.

- Heat index values will hit triple digits again Monday, but are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

Morning cloud cover was slow to improve today, lingering into the
early afternoon hours in some locations. This cover prohibited early
convective development, though over south Georgia and the northeast
GA, storms were quick to make up for it. Storms are expected to
remain subsevere, but with PWs above 2 inches, could include heavy
downpours.

The state remains sandwiched between low pressure to the east, and
Tropical Storm Beryl to the west, and will remain so through the
short term period. Tropical moisture continues to filter into the
state by way of southerly flow, contributing to those high PWs and
warm dew points. The hot and muggy conditions continue to fuel the
afternoon storm activity, and a few hours of likely PoPs are
expected both today and Monday.

There is some uncertainty with late evening activity tonight. CAMs
are indicating possibility of a mass of storms developing over
northeast Georgia late this afternoon to early evening and barreling
southeastward along the greater Georgia-South Carolina state border
through the wee morning hours Monday. Should this materialize, in
addition to the lightning, expect main concerns will be strong winds
and heavy rain. Could not rule out severe wind gusts. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 inches per hour or more are possible, and could lead to
localized flooding or flash flooding.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The most notable change for the long term is the infiltration of
drier air in the wake of Beryl. As Beryl gets swept up into the
trough over the eastern CONUS, the cut off low over the western
Atlantic will help steer the system well to our north. This
northward shift in the track of the low has undercut our overall
rainfall totals through the long term period compared to previous
forecasts. Forecast PWATs have also trended down through the week
and are now hovering closer to 1.5-2.0" with the highest PWATs
situated across far southeastern Georgia. As a result, QPF through
the period is now between a quarter of an inch to an inch of rain,
with the highest totals in southeast Georgia and the northeast
Georgia mountains. Locally higher amounts will be possible in any
storms throughout the week. Tuesday still looks to be the most
active day of the forecast period with numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. While the relatively drier airmass
(at least by July standards) enters the forecast area from the
northwest Wednesday, the broad troughing aloft and a boundary
bifurcating the forecast area will provide support for diurnal
activity in the form of isolated to scattered coverage of storms
through the end of the work week. In the absence of any appreciable
shear, severe weather is not expected at this time though a few
storms could become strong producing gusty winds and frequent
lightning. The relatively drier air won't help cool temperatures off
(max daily temperatures are still forecast to reach the low to mid
90s), however, it will help limit widespread triple digit heat index
values across the area through the weekend. A few locations along
and south of the I-85 corridor will still see uncomfortable triple
digit heat index values through Saturday.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Lower ceilings this morning took their time lifting and scattering
through early afternoon, but convection has now started to fire
over south and northeast Georgia. For the 18Z TAF, have pushed
back the start of TS TEMPO to generally 20-23Z to accommodate the
trend in delayed start to convection. Enhanced storm coverage
expected over far northeast Georgia late could TS to KAHN area
22-01Z. Monday morning, widespread stratus expected, with LIFR-IFR
ceilings after 08Z. Lifting expected by late morning, with
diurnal storms again after 18Z. Light, variable winds will
generally be E-SE, with a shift to the NW expected Monday after
16Z. Speeds 3-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of storms to KATL this afternoon.
Medium on ceilings Monday after 08Z.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  74  94 /  60  60  30  50
Atlanta         75  93  75  94 /  40  60  30  50
Blairsville     68  88  69  89 /  50  70  30  60
Cartersville    72  95  74  95 /  30  60  20  50
Columbus        76  95  76  95 /  40  60  20  50
Gainesville     73  92  74  92 /  60  60  20  50
Macon           75  93  74  94 /  40  60  20  50
Rome            74  96  75  95 /  30  50  20  50
Peachtree City  73  93  74  94 /  40  60  30  50
Vidalia         76  92  76  93 /  40  60  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....KAB
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1224 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1224 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are again expected today, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall
that could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns will be the
primary threat along with frequent lightning.

Heat index values up to 105 degrees will be possible this
afternoon, especially in portions of central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue each day through Saturday.
Coverage of storms will generally be maximized during the
afternoon and evening hours each day. The risk for severe weather
remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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