Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The line of thunderstorms continues to move to the southeast, into
an area which has received plenty of destabilizing sunshine. MUCAPE
across the southern CWA hangs around 2000 to 3000 J/KG. However
limited forcing outside the cold pool and little to no shear mean
thunderstorms will likely continue to pulse up and fall along the
cold pool. Conditions behind the line are significantly more stable
with MUCAPE values of ~1000 and over 250 CIN. Given the limited time
for reheating, have left very low PoPs for the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm or shower later this afternoon across the
region. Winds overnight die out with ample surface moisture. This
may mean some patchy fog overnight across North and Western GA.

Small PoPs return across Northeast GA tomorrow morning into early
tomorrow afternoon with several CAMs indicating a potential MCS
through Eastern TN into the Carolinas which may clip the area.
Impacts for the CWA from this should be low, though some
precipitation and some thunder is possible.

Our next chance for thunderstorms comes Monday with a more energetic
front. This system could have some stronger to severe thunderstorms.
GEFs ensemble indicated 60 to 80% probs of CAPE greater than 2000
J/KG and 40 to 50 kts of shear. This currently looks like more of a
wind threat than anything although. We will continue to watch this
as models initialize with a better solution of our current system.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Active weather is still expected for the first part of next week.

A cold front is expected to move through the CWA later Monday into
Tuesday. The higher res models are producing an MCS out ahead of the
main frontal boundary early on Monday. Since the models continue to
struggle with the MCS/MCV/shortwave systems, timing and coverage of
storms will likely have to be adjusted later forecast cycles. The
HRRR has been better lately with trends further out in the forecast
cycle than within the first 12 hours.

Fairly quiet weather anticipated for the remainder of the week. No
major changes needed.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Line of tsra continues to move to the SE. VFR conditions behind
the line. PoPs still in grid for possible isolated thunderstorm,
however left out of taf for low probability and stabilized
conditions in metro. VSBY may drop tonight from patchy fog in W
GA. Winds behind the line currently from the E and NE, however
these should switch back to W over the next couple hours. Winds
overnight become light to variable. Skies clear to CU field after
15Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Confidence convection this afternoon.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  90  69  86 /  20  20  30  60
Atlanta         69  91  71  86 /  20  10  30  60
Blairsville     63  84  64  79 /  20  60  60  70
Cartersville    66  90  68  86 /  20  20  50  70
Columbus        70  93  72  89 /  20   0  10  50
Gainesville     68  88  70  84 /  20  30  40  70
Macon           69  93  71  89 /  20  10  10  50
Rome            67  89  70  86 /  40  20  50  60
Peachtree City  67  91  69  87 /  20  10  20  60
Vidalia         70  93  72  92 /  20  10   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1149 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1149 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of north and
central Georgia today. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
will be possible, mainly along and south of the Interstate 85
corridor through the early evening hours. Any severe storms that
develop will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day from Sunday through
Tuesday, with the greatest coverage of storms generally across
north Georgia. There is the potential that a few storms could
become strong to severe during the afternoons on Sunday, capable
of producing gusty to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall.

On Sunday night into Monday, there is a chance that strong to
severe thunderstorms could become more organized and numerous
ahead of a cold front advancing through the forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Good Hope               33.79N 83.61W
05/25/2024                   Walton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down along N Highway 83 and Old Good
            Hope Rd.

&&

NLIST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Campton                 33.87N 83.72W
05/25/2024                   Walton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down along Tom Odum Road.

&&

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

GAZ083-084-096-097-251830-
Wilkinson GA-Bleckley GA-Laurens GA-Twiggs GA-
205 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Wilkinson,
northwestern Laurens, southeastern Twiggs and northeastern Bleckley
Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 205 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Jeffersonville, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dublin, Jeffersonville, East Dublin, Dexter, Dudley, Danville,
Montrose, Allentown, District Path, Harlow, Chappells Mill, and
Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8341 3278 8333 3267 8285 3252 8282
      3240 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 291DEG 31KT 3267 8329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
209 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

GAZ074-085-086-097-098-251900-
Washington GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
209 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Laurens, west central Emanuel, northwestern Treutlen, south central
Washington and Johnson Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 208 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Tuckers Crossroad, or 7
miles west of Wrightsville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wrightsville, Adrian, Lovett, Spann, Donovan, Meeks, Rockledge,
Tuckers Crossroad, Brewton, Orianna, and Scott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8269 3271 8297 3271 8295 3275 8295
      3286 8284 3263 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 313DEG 26KT 3275 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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